Investors should pay more attention to dividends

The Economist,

DIVIDENDS do not get the respect they deserve. Over the long run they provide the bulk of equity investors’ returns. Work by Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton of the London Business School* found that over the period from 1900 to 2005, the real return from global equities averaged 5%. The mean dividend yield over that period was 4.5%.

Despite this, stockmarkets devote a lot more time to forecasting and analysing profits than they do to thinking about payouts. Profits can be easily manipulated and come in a bewildering variety of forms (operating, reported, post-tax, pre-exceptional, etc). Dividends are (mostly) paid in cash and so are hard to fake.

In America dividends seemed to go out of fashion in the 1990s. A yield of 2% or so appeared trivial when the market was rising by 20% a year. The disrespect for dividends also reflected the belief that, for tax reasons, share repurchases were a better way of returning cash to investors. But share repurchases are much more volatile than dividend payouts and were briefly negative in 2008 (firms issued more shares than they bought back). Dropping a buy-back programme can be done on the quiet. A dividend cut is a very public statement of corporate weakness. (more)