Wednesday, August 4, 2010

Stocks, US Dollar, Gold Miners


I expect, barring some kind a catastrophe, next week should be another good week for the market. The recent minor pullback has worked off the short term overbought conditions and in the process formed a small bull flag.

As long as we continue to get these minor corrective moves it will serve to keep intermediate sentiment from getting too bullish too fast, and ultimately it is sentiment that will halt this rally, especially if this does turn out to be a bear market rally (which I'm by no means convinced it is yet). As of Friday, intermediate term sentiment was still depressed and at levels that often halt corrections much less start them.

The market is only on the 4th week of this intermediate cycle. The cycle averages about 20 weeks so the next major intermediate trough won't be due until November. (more)

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