When Did The U.S. Market Really Regain Its 1929 Highs?

In real (inflation/deflation-adjusted) terms, when did the US market permanently regain the high reached in 1929? Here is a chart that illustrates two answers to the question. One uses the real price and the other uses the real total return.I've used the S&P Composite for this exercise — a splicing of the S&P 500, which was created in March 1957, and the earlier S&P 90 Stock Composite Index, a daily index that dates from January 1928. The chart is based on daily data for the price and the estimated total return calculated with daily interpolations based on quarterly dividends).

For the S&P Composite, the price didn't permanently remain above the 1929 peak until December 1985 — over 56 years later. The total return, with dividends reinvested, took nearly 20 years to achieve the same distinction.

Will the secular bear market that began in 2000 have the same total-return success when the S&P 500 eventually breaks even? Given the much lower dividend yield over the past decades, the prospects aren't encouraging. (more)