Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Bears Are Dead Wrong? Hmmm....

Yahoo has jumped the shark with publishing "1,300" on the S&P by the end of the year, a 17% annual increase:

"The bears have been consistently wrong throughout this whole rally," Altucher tells Aaron in the accompanying clip. "If you followed the bears' advice at the bottom you'd be dead broke right now." For full disclosure, Altucher did not call the market crash in 2008. "Better to be consistently bullish than consistently bearish."

Well now that's math: 70% of the time the market is ascending, historically.

The problem is that when it declines it almost always goes down much faster than it goes up, and due to that pesky math again if you lose 50% you must get a clean double to be "back to even." (more)

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