A 125-Year Picture of the Federal Government's Share of the Economy, 1950 to 2075

This policy brief presents a long view of the federal government's finances and the potential impact of two critical drivers of federal spending: the government's largest entitlement programs--Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid--and interest on the federal debt held by the public. Under the projections shown here, outlays for those entitlement programs would rise from 8 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) today to 21 percent in 2075, which would exceed the share of GDP now absorbed by all federal revenues. Even if other major categories of federal spending remained fixed as a share of GDP, the growth of those programs would push total federal spending well above the level that it has been throughout much of the post-World War II period. Left unchecked, such spending could cause major deficits to emerge, propelling the government's debt and interest expenditures to unprecedented levels. The total cost of government, including interest expense, could more than double as a share of the economy, rising from 19 percent of GDP in 2002 to 40 percent in 2075. (more)