The Kondratieff Cycle

Economical cycles and demographics point down over the next few years.

Demographic trends

In my Global Forecast published in Financial Sense 21st of August 2009, I pointed out that the spending wave for the US and Europe (incl. Eastern Europe) has topped relative to the rest of the world. The peak was around 2007-2008 and the trend will be down until 2024-2025.

In this article I analyse major economical cycles and show how they fit into the declining demographics in the western part of the world.

The Kondratieff Cycle.

The Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff was the father of applying cyclical activity to economics in modern times. In his book "The Major Economic Cycles" published in 1925 he identified economical long waves in western countries. According to Kondratieff, the capitalist societies rise in long waves of approx. 50-60 years. Each cycle consists of three phases: (more)