S&P 500 has first ‘death cross’ in three years. Here’s what happens next.

 

VIX Didn’t Break In Latest Volatility Shock

This time, it wasn’t derivatives’ fault.

When the stock market goes haywire, questions often arise about whether the surge in options trading in recent years could be responsible for aggravating swings. Just last month, concerns were growing that a buildup in dealer gamma would exacerbate market moves should a shock occur.

There was little of that chatter last week, outside of posts on X by billionaire investor Bill Ackman criticizing the use of leveraged exchange-traded funds and zero-day to expiry options. (more)

CORN ZCN25 RSI, Stochastics, and moving averages confirmed new uptrend

 

Wheat ZWK25 bullish divergence with both RSI and Stochastics looking constructive

 

Cocoa CCN25 showing signs of a potential bottom after 62% fibonacci retracement

 

Orange Juice OJK25 showing signs of a bottom after correction

 

STZ Constellation Brands Inc stock showing signs of a possible bottom in a very difficult market

 

LMT Lockheed Martin Corp showing signs of a bottom, but tough market.

 

$SPX Apr 9 '25 5,400.00 Weekly Call and 5300 Call up 180,000% and 100,000% from the daily lows.

 

S&P500 and VIX Charts, Is the Bottom Near?

 

DXY US Dollar Index

 

VXX S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN

 

SPX Rejected at 200DMA - Is This the Beginning of the End?

Not even oversold

SPX reversed right on the 200 day and is putting in a massive down candle. RSI not even oversold. Not looking bueno...

Source: Refinitiv

 

VIX stress

VIX moving sharply to the upside, but still far from recent "panic" levels. Chart shows SPX and VIX (inverted).

Source: Refinitiv

 

Fear - not everywhere

VIX surging....while skew remains well behaved. The theme of people selling longs, and not paying up for downside protection remains intact.

Source: Refinitiv

 

Imagine...

High uncertainty raises the ‘potential volatility’ of the system....

Source: Soc Gen

 

HYG stress

HYG Skew at 99%ile.

Source: Nomura

 

Falling fundamentally

US corporate profits optimism is now falling.

Source: Soc Gen/Edwards

 

2nd worst president ever...?

The chart shows that for all the post-inauguration periods since 1937 (when the current January 20th date was fixed), this year has been flirting with being the second-worst for the S&P out of 23 election cycles. 2001 is the worst, back when the stock market collapse accelerated following the dot com bubble.

Source: Deutsche Bank

 

Lagnificent

Hartnett sums it up: "US equities have led global equities & Magnificent 7 stocks have led US equities past 2 years; Magnificent 7 peaked at 35% of S&P 500 market cap in Dec'24 (up from 20% in Jan’23), set to become "Lagnificent 7" in '25".

Source: BofA

 

Sensitive households

Stocks at record 29% of US household financial assets.

Source: BofA

 

That was quick

Amazing how the US exceptionalism trade died so quickly.

Source: Nomura

 

1 and 99

Needs little commenting...

Source: Nomura

BTU Peabody Energy stock broke the trend line now above moving average

 

SUPV Grupo Supervielle stock shows the full 61% Fibonacci retracement, now back above the moving average

 

PLTR Palantir Technologies, RSI, Moving Averages and Stochastics show stock is on the move again

 

TEM Tempus Ai

 

UMC United Microelectronics Corp stock right at resistance, will it break?

 

EIX Edison International stock hit bottom, broke above the moving average and gave a BUY signal

 

LBTYA Liberty Global stock is on the trend line and just above 11.00 support

 

CURE Direxion Daily Healthcare 3X Bull ETF almost there

 

TMF Direxion Daily 20 Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF broke the trend line then the resistance line and gave a BUY signal

 

WEN Wendys Company stock broke the trend line and is now on its way

 

BGS B&G Foods stock broke the trend line and gave a BUY signal

 

CAPR Capricor Therapeutics stock is set for another move higher

 

HNST The Honest Company stock corrected and is ready for its next move up

 

GRAB Grab Holdings stock above the moving average and a recent BUY signal

 

PZZA Papa Johns stock broke the down trend line and resistance level, and just gave a BUY signal

 

LYFT Lyft stock broke the trendline a just gave a BUY signal

 

ONDS Ondas Holdings stock retraced and bounced off support at 1.50, looking positive now

 

LMND Lemonade stock shows full Fibonacci retracement and trendline break

 

RUM Rumble stock ready to break out of the triangle

 

TGNA Tegna stock, nothing yet but getting closer

 

SKWD Skyward Specialty Insurance stock bounced off support after correction and broke trend line

 

PLYA Playa Hotel Resorts stock buy now or wait for the breakout?