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Depression, Debt, Default & Destruction in 2025 -Martin Armstrong

https://usawatchdog.com/depression-debt-default-destruction-in-2025-martin-armstrong/

Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong is back with a new round of predictions, and they are not going to make life easy for President Elect Trump.  Armstrong says, “Our computer has been projecting that we are going into a depression in some areas and a recession in other areas.  A depression most likely in Europe and a recession in the United States up until 2028. . . . At my November conference, everybody was celebrating after Trump won.  I stood up and told my clients, ‘I’m sorry, Trump is not going to have a blissful administration, and he’s not going to prevent the economic decline.’  (Please remember, Armstrong predicted Donald Trump would win in a landslide many months before the November 2024 Election.)

Armstrong goes on to say, “We have a serious, serious problem on a global scale. . . . The sovereign debt crisis is really going to start percolating in 2025.  It’s probably going to reach a major crisis by 2026 and 2027.  Why?  They have dictated all these banks and pension funds . . . 70%, generally, must be invested in government bonds. . . . They say it’s ‘safe,’ but it’s the worst debt possible. . . .  So, if the government goes into a sovereign default, what happens?  You wipe out the banking system and the pensions.”

Does Armstrong think the governments around the world are going to go into a sovereign default?  Armstrong says, “Oh yeah.  How does a government default?  We are in this Ponzi Scheme.  They have to keep selling new debt to pay off the old debt. . . . When you can’t sell the new debt, that’s when the default happens because you can’t pay off the old debt.”

What should the average guy do now?  Does Armstrong think people should get to the bank and get cash?  Armstrong says, “Yes, cash, physical paper money.  We just had two hurricanes here in Florida.  This idea of Bitcoin and CBDCs are very nice, but what’s the reality?  The internet was down for 10 days.  A credit card did not work.  You wanted something, it was cash only.  It was the same in Canada when they froze all the accounts of the truckers.  They could not even buy food.  Unless you had cash, you were dead in the water.  This is why I am saying to have cash in this point in time.”  Armstrong still likes physical gold, too.

Armstrong says the digital currencies that are getting a lot of attention lately are only a control mechanism.  Armstrong contends digital money will stop bank runs.  Armstrong still thinks the world will be at war by April or May of 2025.  Armstrong says watch Turkey with its huge conventional army.  Armstrong says Jordan and Lebanon may also be taken over, and like Syria, Turkey will be orchestrating this move.  Armstrong says the Middle East is setting up for a major conflict starting in 2025, and there will be destruction.  Armstrong also predicts Europe will be on the losing end of the next world war.

In closing, Armstrong says, “They can’t stop Trump from taking office, but they can delay him with martial law.  Martial law has been enacted 60 times in the United States. . . . The neocons are scared to death of Trump and really want to trap him in war before he takes office.”

There is much more in the 56-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Martin Armstrong where he gives his analysis on a major debt crisis coming in 2025 with the defaults and destruction that come with it on 12.21.24.

Oklo Inc

 

Buy the VIX Now?

Now you have to...

Complacency and calm, that is the way to describe the general sentiment in the markets right now and we are hearing more and more "volatility is dead" trades presented. However, never ever forget that volatility is mean reverting. The actual VIX level at its natural floor, combined with the most extreme VIX call skew we have ever seen and several extreme technical positioning indicators, leads us to put on cheap VIX call spreads. To be clear, this is not a call that stocks will crash - this is a call on VIX upside optionality.

The saying is that you should buy VIX when you can, not when you have to - but this time it is slightly different - you have to buy it because the trade is simply too attractive to ignore.

1 - Natural floor

VIX is close to the "modern days" natural floor. Volatility is mean reverting, so don't expect much lower levels of volatility.

Source: Refinitiv

 

2 - VVIX not buying it

The latest gap between VVIX and VIX is very wide. You pay attention to well bid VIX, despite things moving little at the moment.

Source: Refinitiv

 

3 - A record skew

VIX call skew hit all time high of 1.5x (the 3 month 5/50 delta call). Volatility is low, but tails are priced extremely rich. This makes VIX call spreads attractive.

Source: GS/Garrett

 

4 - The puke

VIX specs have puked "it" since the election. They are back to running rather big shorts. Such big changes in specs could become a problem should things start to move again...

Source: Refinitiv

 

5 - The chasers

ETNs are huge buyers of VIX should things get a little less calm. We have seen this movie play out before.

Source: Nomura

 

6 - The Christmas gift

Long VIX under the Christmas tree? We have a few more boring weeks, but VIX seasonality is very strong from mid January. Can you afford to wait?

Source: Equity Clock

 

7 - Hedge fund leverage getting extreme

Many of the positioning indicators we look at are now at extreme levels. We are only showing one here - JPM prime brokerage data showing how net leverage continues to spike. with percentile numbers in the high 90's. This does of course matter for the VIX trade as well - a little less complacency leads to equity selling which leads to higher VIX. It's all inter-connected.

Source: JPM PI

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