Fukushima, the Arab spring, the EMU crisis… 2011 marked a turning point
Challenges are numerous for 2012
Challenges are numerous for 2012. It will probably be a turning point in the European history, as we move closer to the make or brake moment. Growth prospects in the euro zone are bleak, as austerity is implemented rather universally, with fresh new measures announced this week in Spain. Germany could however surprise on the upside, as spelled out by recent surveys (manufacturing PMI, IFO Index) that could follow the US path (bottoming out before being translated into hard data). We tend to be more optimistic about US prospects as the Fed would launch QE3 were the Congress fail to extend the lowered rate of payroll tax. Growth in emerging countries will also be crucial, especially in Brazil and China. The former came to a stall in end-2011 and the latter face a great challenge in its housing sector. In this highly unsettled context, elections will be held in major countries, starting with Finland in January, followed by Russia in March, France (the President in April-May, the Parliament in June), Mexico (July), China (the National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in October), and the US in November. 2012 will definitely be about politics. Still, try and have fun and do not fear the end of the world. At least, there is one thing we can be sure about: it will not happen on December the 20th…
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