Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Low Rates Are Goodand Bad

Borrowers breathed a collective sigh of relief when the Federal Reserve said earlier this month that it would hold interest rates at rock bottom for the next two years. But savers were far from happy.

"The news was a little depressing" for savers, says Jim Chessen, chief economist at the American Bankers Association. "It means low savings rates will be par for the course for the next couple of years."

A divided Federal Reserve conceded Aug. 9 that the economy was weak, with "downside risks" on the rise, and announced, surprisingly, that it would extend near-zero short-term interest rates another two years.

The Fed sets a "target rate" that banks follow closely when setting the "federal-funds rate" they charge each other for overnight loans as well as the competitive interest rates they charge consumers and businesses.

The Fed's move was aimed at goading consumers and businesses to look again at leverage as a means of investing in the economy -- either through big-ticket purchases like houses, cars and large appliances, or, for businesses, in equipment, new systems and even workers. The Fed's thinking is that if interest rates stay low enough, people and businesses won't be afraid to borrow, which could shake this stagnant economy back into growth mode.

But it stings if you're on a fixed income facing rising costs for energy and food, or if you're so wary of your money disappearing in the stock market that you're sitting on a bank savings account full of cash. Most bank-savings rates are below 1%.

Low interest rates hurt, too, if your retirement is dependent on interest income from certificates of deposit. Interest rates on a one-year CD have plunged to 0.42% from 2.38% just three years ago, according to Bankrate.com. Most money-market mutual-fund yields are at 0.01%. And at those rates, there's no wiggle room for inflation, which was 3.6% in the last year.

"It doesn't matter if your money is liquid or tied up in a CD, the yields right now do not compensate you for inflation," says Greg McBride, senior financial analyst at Bankrate.

Though the interest is adding only dimes and nickels to many savings accounts now and for the next two years, a federally insured bank is still a good bet to stash your cash.

If you're a homeowner with, say, a 5-1 adjustable-rate mortgage that's already past five years of the fixed-rate portion, you're in pretty good stead for the next couple of years.

Ditto on those home-equity lines of credit, which carry variable interest rates mostly based on the prime rate, which also trends with the federal-funds rate.

Low interest rates also have contributed to 50-year troughs in mortgage rates, which are determined by a variety of interest-rate benchmarks. Freddie Mac reported the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose modestly last week to 4.22%, after seven straight weeks of declines. A year ago, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage stood at 4.36%. The 5-1 ARM slipped to 3.07%, a record low.

Low interest rates are a positive for credit-card holders, unless, of course, you don't pay your bills on time and get slapped with high penalty rates. Thanks to the Credit Card Accountability, Responsibility and Disclosure Act, most banks reset their annual percentage rates to variable terms, meaning they could rise -- and fall -- along with the prime rate.

"It doesn't look like there's going to be any cost-of-funds pressure on credit-card issuers to increase" annual percentage rates, says Ben Woolsey, director of consumer research at CreditCard.com. The cost of funds refers to the rates banks charge each other on overnight loans. "It appears that banks are opening up more credit to people with excellent credit."

A low-interest environment makes it even more important that you pay off your credit-card balances, however. Because you're earning very little return on savings accounts and CDs, the amount you pay in interest-rate charges has more impact on your total budget and cash flow. Generally, interest earned on savings accounts can help offset the interest paid on credit cards.

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