Friday, February 27, 2015

SolarCity (NASDAQ: SCTY) Stock Could Soar 60% as the Bulls Come Back Around

Boom or bust. Those are the contrasting views investors seem to hold for clean energy provider SolarCity (NASDAQ: SCTY). The company -- and its business model -- have been fodder for both bull and bears.

Right now, it looks like the bears are holding sway, as shares of this controversial stock have plunged 40% in the past year. Yet, I believe the bulls will have the last laugh. (more)

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3 Ridiculously Strong “Redneck Stocks”: Deere & Co. (NYSE:DE), Tractor Supply Co. (NASDAQ:TSCO), Home Depot (NYSE:HD)

Alright Bubba, hop in your pickup truck and crank up the Patsy Cline.
Because you’re going places, my friend…
The middle class in rural America is coming back—the same folks who were hit hardest by the Great Recession. And it represents one of the largest (and most profitable) market trends today.
In fact, you can ride this wave for an easy double-digit gain…
What’s causing it? Cheap gas, low interest rates and rising wages. That means the good ol’ boys have more cash in their pockets. And companies catering to them are taking off.
(more)
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Bonanza Creek Energy Inc (NYSE: BCEI)

Bonanza Creek Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an independent energy company in the United States. The company is primarily engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of onshore oil and natural gas assets in the Wattenberg Field in Colorado and the Dorcheat Macedonia Field in Southern Arkansas. It also owns and operates oil-producing assets in the North Park Basin in Colorado; and the McKamie Patton Field in Southern Arkansas.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Bonanza (NYSE: BCEI) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of Bonanza (NYSE: BCEI)
For the most part, BCEI has been trending lower for the last 7 months. However, during the most recent 4 months the stock has had a tendency to create key price levels at the increments of $5 (blue). For example, the current level of resistance is $30. Next, you can see that $35 was the previous support back in October and November, while recently the $20 and $25 levels have both been hit as either support or resistance.

The Tale of the Tape: BCEI is approaching its key level of $30. A long trade could be made on a break above that level with a stop placed under it. A short trade could be made at $30 with the expectation of a fall down to the next $5 level at $25.
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German Bank Predicts Apple AAPL Stock Tumbles Over 50% As Shares Roundtrip To $60


zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden on 02/26/2015 15:15
When it comes to the sellside putting up ludicrous upside price targets on any stock, and especially cult-favorite Apple, the media world is all smiles: after all, with AAPL once again the defining stock of the Nasdaq, and on many low volume days determining how the entire S&P trades, what can go wrong if everyone is invested in one company (and according to Goldman, most hedge funds already are). However, dare to suggest that the price of a company whose forward earnings multiple has more than doubled in the past two years, is massively overbought and prepare to suffer the full wrath of the Apple Borg collective, also known by the NSA as zombies who are paying customers.
Which is why few if any ever dare to go against the wisdom, or madness, of the crowd. After all, there is safety in numbers, and if one analyst is wrong (on Apple or anything else for that matter) they will all be wrong, so there will be no individual blame (one of the main reasons why nobody has gone to prison over the first Great Financial Crisis).
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Thursday, February 26, 2015

One Of The Greatest Danger Signals Is Now Flashing RED!

Today one of the greatest danger signals is flashing RED!
DANGER – From Investors Intelligence:  “A major worry is now signaled from the spread between the bulls and bears. It jumped to 45.4%. Differences over 30% are a worry and above 40% signal major caution.” (see chart below)
Sentiment Chart

SOURCE
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The 10 Highest Dividend Yields in the S&P/TSX 60: BCE, CM, CPG, CVE, PBA, TAC, ARX, BCE, IPL, NA, PPL,TA

Once upon a time, you actually received interest when you lent out money—but now everything has changed.
Today, in Europe at least, investors have to pay for the privilege of lending money to the government. Bond yields in a number of countries—including France, Germany, and Switzerland—are now negative.
That’s why dividend stocks can be so tantalizing. If you can build a portfolio that yields 4% to 6%, you’re well on your way to generating respectable income. (more)

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Chen Lin – Using Austrian Economics to Make Money



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The Most Important Commodity For Housing Is Screaming “Recession”



zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden on 02/25/2015 16:53
While Crude Oil and Dr. Copper are often cited as economic indicators, as we noted previously, in factLumber prices are the most correlated with ISM and GDP of all industrial commodities (h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer). That is a problem. Lumber prices are tumbling – breaking to 18-month lows today. We have seen this picture before, and it did not end well…
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Has the China RRR cut put a bottom in copper?


In a week of reports from major mining companies including Rio Tinto, Market Analyst Jasper Lawler looks at the outlook for copper given the recent sharp decline in prices and the action taken by the Chinese central bank.
Jasper covers
• The difficulty of China’s economic transition
• Improved production at mining companies
• The sharp sell-off in copper in January and subsequent rebound
• The impact of Chinese fiscal and monetary policy
• The impact of the USD and oil prices on copper
Copper rebounded from 5 ½ year lows last week to record its biggest weekly gain since August on the back of new stimulus measures in China and a rebound in oil prices.(more)

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Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Time To Buy Russia? RSX, RSXJ, ERUS

Yes, Russia has a litany of negatives against it — from stagflation and recession, to open conflict with neighboring countries, economic sanctions, ratings agency downgrades, a sharply declining currency, and a megalomaniacal leader.
So you might be wary. But Russian market exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are among the best performers year to date. They’re up 20% — and 40% from lows in December. These kinds of returns show the value of thinking outside the box as an investor, and going against the crowd.
But it’s still not too late to buy Russia.(more)

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Time Warner Inc (NYSE: TWX)

Time Warner Inc. operates as a media and entertainment company in the United States and internationally. The company operates in four segments: Turner, Home Box Office, Warner Bros., and Time Inc. The Turner segment operates cable networks; digital media properties; free-to-air networks; and entertainment and news networks that offer sports, movies, classic films, reality programming, and news. The Home Box Office segment provides premium pay and basic tier television services comprising HBO and Cinemax; and sells its original programming via DVDs, Blu-ray Discs, and electronic sell-through. The Warner Bros. segment produces and distributes feature films, television programming, videogames, and other programming; distribute home video products; and licenses rights to its feature films, television programming, and characters. The Time Inc. segment publishes magazines, including People, Sports Illustrated, InStyle, Time, Real Simple, Southern Living, Entertainment Weekly, and Fortune, as well as titles and books; licenses its magazines for print or digital publication to publishers; operates Websites, such as People.com, SI.com, and Time.com.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Warner (NYSE: TWX) below with added notations:
1-year chart of Warner (NYSE: TWX)
Minus the gaps higher and lower last summer, TWX has been on a steady trend higher from its April low. Twice over that time the stock has hit that same resistance at $87.50 (red) and pulled back down significantly both times. The stock seems to be on its way back up there, and if TWX can finally break through that $87.50 resistance the stock should be headed higher. A close above that resistance would also constitute a new 52-week high.

The Tale of the Tape: TWX has a 52-week resistance at $87.50. The possible long position on the stock would be on a breakout above that level with a stop placed under it.
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Internet Stocks & Natural Gas



I’ve really liked the Internet Index, as you guys know, and these stocks continue to rock n roll. But now I want to turn our attention more specifically to the Social Media space. I think these are the next ones to rip. We briefly discussed the major US averages which I continue to like. I said in the video that the target for the Dow Jones Transportation Index was up near 4760, I meant 9760 obviously. I apologize for that. Finally we discuss Natural Gas as well. I think the risk/reward here very much favors the bulls. I went over all the reasons today with Frances.

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Realty Income (NYSE: O) The Only Income Stock I’d Own ‘Forever’

Realty Income (NYSE: O) reported fourth-quarter earnings last week, missing analyst funds from operations (FFO) estimates by a penny.
Revenues came in at $248 million, actually beating analyst estimates of $230 million by a pretty wide margin.
And you know what? I could really care less what Realty Income did last quarter. Realty Income’s quarterly numbers don’t matter to me. At all. And I say this as a long-term holder of the stock.  (more)

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Gold Still in a Bear Market, But Don’t Lose Hope

We talked with the Gold and Oil Guy today, Chris Vermeulen. He says that Gold is still in a bear market, like it has been for the past three years. There’s an opportunity to pick up a quick profit when it rebounds from its current plunge, but don’t be fooled. It’s all setting up very nicely for the ultimate bull market that’s getting closer. Same with the much maligned Toronto Venture Exchange (TSX:V), which is at record lows due to its composition of miners and resource companies. Chris believes that when it comes back, it will come back very big, so consider the ETF. Chris is very bearish on Oil and doesn’t see it for quite some time, so don’t chase it lower. Believe the technicals, not your heart. Chris also runs an automated trading system that can trade for you on autopilot.
Click Here to Listen to the Audio
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Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Copper: A Bullish Sign for This Beaten-Down Commodity

Last month, I told you about the ugliest chart in the market.
 
Copper was sitting precariously close to an important long-term support level. If it broke down, I said it could lead to a sharp decline.
 
That's exactly what happened.
 
The price of the metal has fallen 13% so far this year.
 
But now, the "ugliest chart in the market" is starting to look a little better...
 
Take a look at this updated weekly chart of copper...
 
 
As I said, the price of copper has fallen 13% so far this year. And looking just at this weekly chart, the metal could fall further from here before hitting support at about $2.20 per pound. (more)
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The Real Crisis Will Not Be In Stocks… It Will Be In Bonds

by Graham Summers
Gold Seek

The mainstream financial media likes to focus on stocks because:
1) The stories are a lot sexier than bonds or currencies
2) They make for better hype jobs than bonds or currencies
If your job is to sit in front of a camera selling the notion of getting rich from investing, you’re not going to talk about bonds or currencies (maybe the latter is of interest but only with insane amounts of leverage which usually bankrupts a trader in his or her first trade).
However, today stocks are in fact a very minor story. They are, in a sense, the investing equivalent of picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.
Continue Reading at GoldSeek.com…
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Diverging Developments in Oil Markets vs. Energy Shares

by Walter
Sober Look

Let’s take a look at the recent developments in the US energy markets and the seemingly contradictory reaction by equity investors.
First of all, while we continue to see significant declines in the US rig count (both oil and gas), …
[...] … American crude oil production remains at record levels and still rising. It’s going to take time for this momentum to turn.
Continue Reading at SoberLook.com…
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Sangamo Biosciences, Inc. (NASDAQ: SGMO)

Sangamo BioSciences, Inc., a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the research, development, and commercialization of zinc finger DNA-binding proteins for gene regulation and gene modification in the United States. The company has collaboration and license agreements with Shire International GmbH and Biogen Idec Inc.; and strategic partnerships with Sigma-Aldrich Corporation, Dow AgroSciences, LLC, Open Monoclonal Technology, Inc., F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd, and Hoffmann-La Roche Inc. Sangamo Biosciences, Inc. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Richmond, California.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Sangamo (Nasdaq: SGMO) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of Sangamo (Nasdaq: SGMO)
Other than the steep decline in March and April, SGMO has been trending primarily sideways over the last year. During that time stock has created an obvious resistance level at $17 (red). A break above that $17 level should mean higher prices for the stock.
The Tale of the Tape: SGMO has a key level of resistance at $17. A long trade could be entered on a break through that level. However, if you are bearish on the stock, a short trade could be made on any rallies up to $17.
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The Long Road To Avoiding Grexit


zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden on 02/23/2015 11:44
While Friday’s ‘agreement’ to agree to agreeing a deal that would be agreeable between The Eurogroup (and its ‘Institutions’) and Greece was heralded by the markets as a success for avoiding a Greek Exit (Grexit), there are numerous hurdles left in the next few months that could derail this process and bring about the re-introduction of the Drachma. As Deutsche Bank concludes, Greece’s (reluctant) request for a bailout extension is the first step in what is likely to be a difficult path to compromise
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Monday, February 23, 2015

Greece Should Leave Eurozone? – Mike “Mish” Shedlock



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Ross Clark – Equity Markets. Greece. Ross Kay – Real Estate Bubble in Canada? February 21, 2015



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Commercial Traders Are The Most Long 30Y Treasuries In A Year

Via Gavekal Capital blog,
Over the last five years the signal given by investor positioning in options and futures contracts on the 30-year treasury bond has proven prescient. Each time commercial traders have moved to a long position in the long bond rates have been near a peak. Over the last few weeks the commercials have shifted their positioning dramatically, moving from one of the largest short positions to a net long position for the first time in almost a year.

If history is a guide then we may be near an intermediate term peak in rates.
Zero Hedge
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PAREXEL International Corporation (NASDAQ: PRXL)


PAREXEL International Corporation, a biopharmaceutical outsourcing services company, provides clinical research, clinical logistics, medical communications, consulting, commercialization, and advanced technology products and services for pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical device industries worldwide. The company operates in three segments: Clinical Research Services (CRS), PAREXEL Consulting Services (PC), and PAREXEL Informatics (PI).
Take a look at the 1-year chart of PAREXEL (Nasdaq: PRXL) below with added notations:
1-year chart of PAREXEL (Nasdaq: PRXL)
PRXL was on a steady trend higher from April up until its $64, September high. After that, the stock has hit that same $64 (blue) mark several times only to end up eventually pulling back down. If PRXL can finally break through that $64 resistance the stock should be headed higher. A close above that resistance would also constitute a new 52-week high.

The Tale of the Tape: PRXL has a 52-week resistance at $64. The possible long position on the stock would be on a breakout above that level with a stop placed under it.
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Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) The Only Tech Stock You’ll Ever Need

It’s an investors dream to have a winning portfolio comprised entirely of a single stock…
While a diversified collection of companies is in your best interest as a long-term investor, what we really want are the “silver bullets” that can beat the broader market on a consistent basis. (more)

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US Weekly Economic Calendar

time (et) report period ACTUAL CONSENSUS
forecast
previous
MONDAY, FEB. 23
8:30 am Chicago Fed national activity index Jan.   -- 0.39 (3-month)
10 am Existing home sales Jan.   4.95 mln 5.04 mln
TUESDAY,  FEB. 24
9 am Case-Shiller home price index Dec.   -- 4.7% y-o-y
10 am Consumer confidence index Feb.   99.0 102.9
10 am Janet Yellen testimony at Senate        
WEDNESDAY, FEB. 25
10 am New home sales Jan.   465,000 481,000
10 am Janet Yellen testimony at House        
THURSDAY, FEB. 26
8:30 am Weekly jobless claims Feb. 19
295,000 283,000 
8:30 am Consumer price index Jan.   -0.7% -0.3%
8:30 am Core CPI Jan.   0.1% 0.1%
8:30 am Durable goods orders Jan.
0.5% -3.3%
9 am FHFA home price index Dec.   -- 5.3% y-o-y
FRIDAY, FEB. 27
8:30 am GDP revision 4Q   2.0% 2.6%
9:45 am Chicago PMI Feb.   -- 59.4
9:55 am Consumer sentiment Feb.   93.8 93.6
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Saturday, February 21, 2015

IGI Laboratories, Inc. (AMEX: IG)

IGI Laboratories, Inc. develops, manufactures, and markets topical formulations in the United States. The company sells its generic topical pharmaceutical products under the IGI label. It also develops, manufactures, fills, and packages topical semi-solid and liquid products for branded and generic pharmaceutical customers, as well as for over-the-counter (OTC) and cosmetic markets. The company’s products are used in various applications from cosmetics and cosmeceuticals to the prescription treatment of conditions, such as dermatitis, psoriasis, and eczema.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of IGI (AMEX: IG) below with added notations:
1-year chart of IGI (AMEX: IG)
IG rallied from February into December before finally stalling at around $11. The stock has hit that $11 mark again several times this month. If IG can retest the $11 level once more (red) the stock may finally look to break through. A close above that resistance would also constitute a new 52-week high.
The Tale of the Tape: IG has a 52-week resistance at $11. The possible long position on the stock would be on a breakout above that level with a stop placed under it.
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Dr. Kent Moors: Low Oil Prices Not Sustainable



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The Symmetrical Triangle Breakout And The U.S. Dollar Index

The 20% appreciation in the U.S. Dollar Index has decimated many commodities. For example Crude Oil is down 60% from the June highs, while Gold, Silver and Platinum are down approximately 25%.  Before you go bottom picking in these volatile commodities, let us first update the current technical condition of the U.S. Dollar Index. It is important to remember that when trading industrial commodities and precious metals it is essential to watch the level of the U.S. dollar, since commodities often move inversely to the price movements of the greenback.
MARCH 15 U.S. DOLLAR INDEX FUTURES - DAILY

Chart provided by QST
The Symmetrical Triangle
This pattern is identified by drawing two trend lines that connect a series of sequentially lower peaks and a series of sequentially higher lows. Both trend lines act as barriers that, at least temporarily, prevent the price from heading higher or lower. However, once the price breaches one of these levels, a sharp movement often follows. A symmetrical triangle is generally regarded as a period of consolidation that takes place before the price moves beyond one of the identified trend lines. A break below the lower trend line is used by technical traders to indicate a move lower, while a break above the upper trend line signals the beginning of a move upward. In addition, it is important to monitor volume levels when the breakout occurs because a substantial increase in volume tends to add validity to the break out signal. Please refer to the chart for our key technical levels.   
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Neustar Inc (NYSE: NSR)

NeuStar, Inc. provides real-time information services and analytics worldwide. It develops unique solutions using proprietary, third-party and client data sets. The company serves marketing and security functions in the communications, financial services, media and advertising, retail and e-commerce, Internet, and technology industries. Neustar’s integrated marketing solution enhances clients’ ability to acquire and retain valuable customers across disparate platforms. It offers marketing services, including customer intelligence services that provide scientific, cloud-based solutions to identify, verify, and segment existing and potential customers in real-time for marketing solutions, and fraud and risk mitigation; activation services, which enable online display ad targeting of prospect audiences and customers; and campaign conversion analytics that enable clients to measure advertising effectiveness.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Neustar (NYSE: NSR) with the added notations:
1-year chart of Neustar (NYSE: NSR)
NSR has been trading mostly sideways over the last 10 months while repeatedly finding support at $24 (green) whenever that level has been approached. Now that the stock is there again, traders should be able to expect some sort of bounce. However, if the $24 support were to break, much lower prices should follow.

The Tale of the Tape: NSR has a key level of support at $24. A trader could enter a long position at $24 with a stop placed under the level. If the stock were to break below the support a short position could be entered instead.
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Chinese Oil Re-Stocking Is Over: Inbound VLCCs Drop To 5-Month Lows

In October 2014, we noted the massive surge (amid a slowing economy) in VLCCs bound for China as they began rebuilding their Strategic Petroleum Reserve, buying the newly low priced crude providing ‘artificial’ demand not reflective of actual current activity. Crude prices continued to drop and China-bound tankers remained high. But, as Bloomberg notes, this week saw the number of supertankers heading to China drop to 62 – the lowest since September 19th (before China began its restocking efforts) – strongly suggesting that ‘artificial demand’ has been removed from the global oil market.
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