Saturday, October 3, 2015

Opportunities in Commodity Currencies: Brazilian Real, Sugar, Coffee

Not long ago a major investment bank coined the phrase emerging “BRIC” countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China).  Well let's fast forward to the present and we have the BRICs crumbling and their currencies collapsing!!  
In this piece we will focus on Brazilian Real and its effect on COFFEE and SUGAR prices.  Let’s turn to the charts to plot our next move:  

Brazilian Real Futures - Weekly 

Sugar Futures - Weekly

Coffee Futures - Weekly

All charts provided by QST


Once the Brazilian Real bottoms we expect a rapid price increase in both Coffee and Sugar!! When the Brazilian Real bottoms be ready to establish longs in Coffee and Sugar with accompanying protective sell stops , since the bounce could happen rapidly.

Six Gold Companies Could Create Exceptional Wealth: ICG, PGLC, KOR, NUG, RD, CGJ

The Gold Report: In your last interview with The Gold Report, you said that a Federal Reserve interest rate hike would be the best thing for gold. As we now know, the board decided to keep rates at almost zero. How does that impact your projections for precious metals?
Jeb Handwerger: It was almost a done deal that the Fed was going to raise interest rates in September, but then the Chinese market began to crash and just the threat of raising interest rates caused a price decline in the S&P 500, the likes of which we haven't seen in a long time. It was a record drop, breaking a major four-year uptrend and forming a technical bearish pattern. The Fed announced on Sept. 17, when it was expected to raise interest rates for the first time since 2006, that it is uncertain about the economy, that the equity markets are too volatile, and that there are too many dangers of another recession. Now the Fed is doing whatever it can to prevent a recession. (more)

Jeff Berwick on The Guerrilla Economist on Impending Financial Crisis, WWIII and Dead Bankers

Jeff is interviewed by VGuerilla, the Guerrilla Economist, ‘”V” is a “guerrilla economist” who has worked for some of the top commodity trading firms and investment banks. He also contributed to private think tanks that help create investment policy.’ Topics include: Jeff’s origins in Canada and the genesis of, some very good calls and predictions, where are the people awakening the most? USA has some of the most brainwashed and least free people in the world, expatriation to Mexico, Central and South America, The Shemitah cycles, religion vs spirituality, massive increase in debt since 2008, interest rate deadlock, impending market crash this fall, unprecedented economic situation, low supplies of physical gold and silver, Russia moving away from US dollar trade, potential for world war 3, massive explosions at strategic locations in China, massive dumping of US securities, attempts to hide US govt debt, the BRICS nations do not need the USA!

Why The Collapse Of Saudi Arabia Is Inevitable

By Nafeez Ahmed at Middle East Eye
On Tuesday 22 September, Middle East Eye broke the story of a senior member of the Saudi royal family calling for a “change” in leadership to fend off the kingdom’s collapse.
In a letter circulated among Saudi princes, its author, a grandson of the late King Abdulaziz Ibn Saud, blamed incumbent King Salman for creating unprecedented problems that endangered the monarchy’s continued survival.
“We will not be able to stop the draining of money, the political adolescence, and the military risks unless we change the methods of decision making, even if that implied changing the king himself,” warned the letter. (more)

Friday, October 2, 2015

Choose Facebook $FB Over LinkedIn $LNKD, Twitter $TWTR

  • Wedbush on Thursday assumed coverage of Facebook Inc FB , LinkedIn Corp LNKD  and Twitter Inc TWTR .
  • The firm gave Facebook an Outperform rating, and Twitter and LinkedIn, a Neutral rating.
  • Shares of Facebook rose 1.17 percent on Thursday, while LinkedIn fell 0.43 percent, and Twitter fell 8.43 percent.
Wedbush set the following 12-month price targets: Facebook at $115.00, LinkedIn at $200.00, Twitter at $30.00.

Despite “phenomenal” growth that Facebook experienced over the past decade, Wedbush still expects the company to continue to expand its active user base over the decade to come. In addition, “Facebook is at the leading edge of a shifting communications environment (…) The transition to immersive 3D video creates the potential for a host of new applications, including education, gaming, and service offerings not currently offered by Facebook.”

Two more elements to take into account are (1) Facebook’s consistent success in increasing user engagement, the frequency in the delivery of ads, and ad rates per view; and (2) its impressive EBITDA contribution margin on revenue growth of 80 percent.

Regarding LinkedIn, Pachter does recognize its status as “the preferred online destination for job seekers and recruiters” and acknowledges that the company does seek to capitalize on this sturdy and active user base by offering several sorts of products – like marketing and education solutions.

However, LinkedIn’s “progress in marketing and educational solutions will likely be driven by engagement of its users” and Wedbush is not optimistic about LinkedIn’s ability to drive engagement without compelling content. In addition, they note shares are fairly valued.

The firm believes Twitter has a solid user base, “a first mover advantage that will be nearly impossible to overcome, and a flawed business model.” While they do believe that Twitter can battle Facebook in reach, it would need to change its strategy to successfully rival it.
Until the firm sees evidence that management has implemented a new strategy that can drive user and engagement growth, they would rather remain on the sidelines – at least until a new CEO is officially selected.

Bullish analysts have price targets between $105 - $125 on FB.

Gold Looks Ready For Its Next Leg Lower

You want to talk about strong trends, it’s hard to find a cleaner downtrend than what we’ve had in precious metals since 2011. The Gold bugs have gotten really quiet and I’m actually starting to miss them. Remember how obnoxious the silver permabulls were 5-6 years ago? We’re near levels where metals are just a joke and from an anecdotal perspective, one might think that they couldn’t possibly go any lower as they are arguably the most hated asset class on earth. But the data suggests otherwise. In fact, sentiment, although just off bearish extremes, isn’t anywhere near the levels we’ve seen at prior pivot lows over the past few years. (more)

Zebra Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: ZBRA)

Zebra Technologies Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, sells, and supports direct thermal and thermal transfer label printers, radio frequency identification (RFID) printer/encoders, dye sublimation card printers, real-time locating solutions, related accessories, and support software worldwide. It products are used principally in automatic identification (auto ID), data collection, and personal identification applications. The company also provides mobile computing and advanced data capture technologies and services, which include rugged and enterprise-grade mobile computers; laser, imaging, and radio frequency identification based data capture products; wireless LAN (WLAN) solutions and software; and applications that are associated with these products and services.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Zebra (NASDAQ: ZBRA) with the added notations:
1-year chart of Zebra (NASDAQ: ZBRA)
ZBRA doubled in value from October of 2014 to June of this year. After peaking at $120, the stock started its current decline that now has the stock trading below its key level of $75 (red). The break of $75 should lead to lower prices for ZBRA.

The Tale of the Tape: ZBRA broke a key level of support at $75. A trader could enter a short position on any rallies up to or near $75 with a stop placed above the level. If the stock were to break back above the $75 level, a long position might be entered instead.

Thursday, October 1, 2015


ConforMIS, Inc. is a medical technology company. The Company uses its iFit Image-to-Implant technology platform to develop, manufacture and sell joint replacement implants that are individually sized and shaped, to fit each patient's anatomy. It is engaged in offering a line of customized knee implants designed to restore the natural shape of a patient's knee. The Company has sold over 30,000 knee implants in the United States and Europe. It also launched iTotal PS, the Company’s posterior-stabilized total knee replacement implant, which addresses the largest segment of the knee replacement market. The Company’s products are available in the United States, Germany and the United Kingdom. Its products are offered to orthopedic surgeons, hospitals and other medical facilities and patients. The Company’s iFit technology platform includes three elements: iFit Design, iFit Printing and iFit Just-in-Time Delivery.

There are 5 analysts who currently follow this stock, 4 have a BUY rating and 1 an OUTPERFORM.

ConforMIS Inc (NASDAQ:CFMS) is consolidating nicely between 17/19. Worth watching for a breakout. Stop 16.72

6 Stocks Short Sellers Are Betting Against: $AAPL, $GPRO, $CHK, $FIT, $ZIOP, $KERX

SunGard's Astec Analytics looks into short-selling activity weekly.
  • This week’s top pick, from a securities lending perspective, is none other than Apple Inc. AAPL .
  • Other stocks that are seeing substantial short-selling activity include Chesapeake Energy Corporation CHK , GoPro Inc GPRO , Fitbit Inc FIT , ZIOPHARM Oncology Inc. ZIOP  and Keryx Biopharmaceuticals KERX .

  • SunGard's Astec Analytics provides intraday short-selling market data via securities lending analytics. In a recent report sent to clients, the firm shared a “roundup of some of the hottest stocks from a securities lending perspective.”
    Below is a look at Karl Loomes’ list of top stocks in the Americas – from a security lending perspective.


    Same as last week, Apple was Astec’s top pick for the Americas this week. The company was once again in the spotlight as it released its new iPhone 6S, “which as usual saw fans queuing around the street in anticipation.”
    Management said that based on pre-orders it anticipates sales in the first weekend to surpass the 10 million units its predecessor sold last year. “Despite this, the company’s share price saw fairly mixed trade during the week,” the report assured.
    “While Astec’s data suggests [sic] short sellers have been taking a bearish view for the firm over the past month, during which time borrowing volumes have climbed 32 percent.”


    Maintaining its spot from last week, GoPro is number two in Astec’s list.
    This week Facebook Inc FB  launched a new 360-degree video facility, which GoPro cameras “are set to dominate in, utilizing a proprietary six-camera spherical rig that was announced earlier this year,” the report explained.
    However, Loomes noted, wider concerns regarding the wearable technology industry were noticeable in trading action for the most part. In fact, the number of GoPro shares being borrowed climbed roughly four times higher over September, hitting their highest levels since the company went public.

    Chesapeake Energy

    Also maintaining its spot from last week is Chesapeake. Over the past week, oil prices took another blow, following the release of official data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), which showed crude production in the United States has increased to 9.14m/bpd. In addition, The Street’s online research platform rates the stock a sell.
    “The ongoing trouble with the oil markets saw its shares pressured during the week, though on the borrowing front our data hints at the first stages of slackening demand to short sell its stock, with the cost of borrowing falling from more than 16 percent to about 12 percent,” Loomes expounded.


    Fitbit was once again on the spotlight this week, following the release of official exchange short selling data, which showed short sellers were reducing their positions in the company. Nonetheless, Astec’s data, “which covers the period that the official numbers have yet to show, suggests this was actually merely a dip in the metric rather than a sustained change in attitude.”
    The firm’s lending data shows that the amount of Fitbit shares being borrowed did decline about 21 percent in the first two weeks of the month. However, the figure has bounced back since, surpassing previous levels and surging 55 percent in the second half of the month.

    ZIOPHARM Oncology

    ZIOPHARM made it to this week’s list on the back of “selling pressure brought about by technical trading – its price seen as crossing a key support level, which triggered a number of large stops in the market, forcing traders to sell the stock and bringing about a 14 percent drop in Friday’s session.”
    Having said this, the technical moves mentioned above apparently did not receive “a matched reaction on the part of short sellers,” as borrowing volumes actually fell three percent on Friday. Nonetheless, overall borrowing volumes are still high, 16 percent above where they stood a month ago.

    Keryx Biopharmaceuticals

    Finally, there’s Keryx, which made it to the list after gaining European approval for its hyperphosphatemia treatment Fexeric. Despite the good news, the company’s stock price “held in the red for most of the week.”
    According to Asctec’s borrowing data, short selling activity seems to be increasing. The number of Keryx shares being borrowed rose 9 percent over the past couple of weeks.

    ECONOMIC COLLAPSE COUNTDOWN -- IMF Warns MASS DEFAULT in Emerging Market as Currencies Collapse Under Debt!


    Everyone is so focused on looking at the Fed and whether or not it decides to raise rates by a puny 0.25%, that they are completely overlooking the fact that it is the market’s role to set interest rates, and if the Fed is not up to the job, then the markets will eventually take over and do it in a manner that is likely to involve rises vastly greater than a mere 0.25%, which given the current fragile and extremely unstable debt structure, can be expected to have catastrophic consequences. (more)

    Wednesday, September 30, 2015

    A 25% Rally Starting Soon in Coffee : $JO

    Coffee prices are on the verge of soaring...
    Today, investors hate commodities... and coffee is no exception.
    The last time we saw a setup like this, coffee prices rocketed nearly 72% higher in just four months. And over the past decade, these opportunities would have led to 25% average gains in just more than four months.
    Coffee isn't a "buy" just yet. But a fantastic opportunity is setting up right now.
    Let me explain...(more)

    Bitauto Hldg Ltd (NYSE:BITA)

    Bitauto Hldg Ltd (NYSE:BITA) could be in the early stages of a technical breakout. A break through today's high on volume could lead this stock to 30-30.51 short-term.

    Orbotech Ltd. (NASDAQ: ORBK) Ready to Pop?

    It is no secret that demand for Apple’s (NASDAQ: AAPL) next-generation iPhone, the iPhone 6s, and its new and larger tablet, the iPad Pro, has been huge. While this good news does not yet seem to have a profound effect on Apple’s share price, 1 bottomed out small cap tech stock that is a are beneficiary of these Apple launches could turn into a big winner.

    Under the Radar
    The most obvious beneficiary of these new technology gadget releases is Orbotech Ltd. (NASDAQ: ORBK), an under-the-radar stock that is a major player in the technology world. The last sentence buried in the company’s description is the key takeaway: Virtually every electronic device in the world is produced using Orbotech systems. 

    The company has the world’s leading market share in the sale of automated optical inspection equipment used in the production of printed circuit boards, flat panel displays, and other micro-electronic components. With the advancement in technology capabilities and the migration to smaller and thinner components, Orbotech’s inspection equipment ensures there are no defects and thus enhances the production yield for manufacturers all over the world, including the producers of the iPhone 6s.

    Down over 30% from its June 2015 high due to the recent Asian contagion, Orbotech’s shares trade at a ridiculous valuation. The Street is projecting earnings per share (EPS) to grow from $0.83 in 2014 to $1.98 in 2015 and $2.24 in 2016. Yet, trading in the $15 range, the P/E on 2015 estimated earnings is under 8x, despite the fact that EPS for the first six months of 2015 is already $1.01, a 21% rise over EPS for all of last year! High product demand and profitability should serve as catalysts to drive the low-valuation stock back to the $22 level in the coming months, which would represent a paltry 11 P/E on 2015 earnings per share.

    Illumina, Inc. (NASDAQ: ILMN)

    Illumina, Inc. provides sequencing and array-based solutions for genetic analysis in North America, Europe, Latin America, the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, and South Africa. The company’s products include sequencing platforms that are based on its SBS technology, which provides researchers with various ranges of applications and the ability to sequence mammalian genomes; and array platforms consist of HiScan and iScan systems, as well as NextSeq 550 system that are array scanners for DNA and RNA analysis applications, including single nucleotide polymorphism genotyping, copy number variations analysis, gene expression analysis, and methylation analysis.
    Take a look at the 1-year chart of Illumina (NASDAQ: ILMN) with the added notations:
    1-year chart of Illumina (NASDAQ: ILMN)
    ILMN had gotten stuck trading in a sideways range from October through April. Then, in May, the stock finally broke out and ran all the way up to the mid-$240’s. Unfortunately, in July and August, ILMN fell all the way back down to where it started its rally from back in April. During that entire time, the stock created an important level of support at $180 (green). Now that the stock has broken that support, lower prices should follow.

    The Tale of the Tape: ILMN broke a key level of support at $180. A trader could enter a short position on any rallies up to or near $180 with a stop placed above the level. If the stock were to break back above the $180 level, a long position might be entered instead.

    Tuesday, September 29, 2015

    Enviva Partners LP (NYSE:EVA), High-Yield Stock IPO to Watch

    Enviva Partners LP (NYSE:EVA) is ready to profit from a unique renewable energy niche. The company produces and sells wood pellets that are used as fuel for electricity generation plants. EVA was also an April IPO. Company management claims that wood pellet sales are a growth business with demand increasing worldwide. Currently most of the demand for pellets is in Europe. Enviva owns and operates five production plants in the Southeastern U.S. The market does not see much value in the business, and the share price is down 40% from the IPO, pushing the yield to over 13%. Enviva has only paid one quarterly distribution, so this is really a watch and wait idea for conservative investors, or a very attractive yield for those who are willing to take on a higher level of risk. The stock is being followed by 4 analysts with price targets between $23.00-$26.00

    Wild Ride For Leveraged Biotech ETFs Continues $LABD, $LABU

    A week after presidential candidate Hillary Clinton made scathing comments about price gouging by the pharmaceuticals industry, biotechnology stocks and exchange-traded funds remain at the epicenter of what has rapidly become a precariously positioned healthcare sector.
    However, some bearish leveraged biotech ETFs, namely the Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares LABD 22.07%, are enjoying life in the fast lane.

    LABD's Recent Run

    After surging more than 30 percent, LABD is up another 15.7 percent at this writing Monday on volume that is already more than double the daily average.
    LABD underscores how quickly things can change for triple-leveraged ETFs and why the disclaimer that only active traders planning to hold these funds for just a few days should use these products, not buy-and-hold investors, is so often repeated.

    LABD is now up more than 48 percent over the past five trading days, but the ETF entered Monday as Direxion's second-best leveraged ETF on a month-to-date basis, with a gain of 18.6 percent, according to issuer data.

    If Disclaimer Awareness Is Minded, More Opportunity May Be Ahead

    For traders willing to acknowledge that disclaimer, there appears to be more near-term opportunity with the likes of LABD due to professional investors' long positioning in the healthcare sector and biotech's elevated weights in major U.S. equity benchmarks.
    “Friday was the biggest 1 day underperformance of the healthcare sector since April 2009. Currently, Biotech net exposures are still near/at all-time highs since 2010. Following sizable net buying of HC for 9 consecutive months, the pace has slowed materially in Sep. HC net flows have been mixed over the past few days although volumes have remained elevated,” according to a Morgan Stanley note out Monday.
    “Although there are some idiosyncratic dynamics driving Biotech, the group was a lead indicator in the growth sell-off in March of 2014. Biotech represents 12 percent of the Nasdaq and 3.68 percent of the S&P 500, which is elevated versus history. It is also worth noting that Biotech vs E&Ps has been correlated to Long/Short 12M Momentum and there is a bit of disconnect there currently.”

    Turnover In Healthcare Linked To LABD Action

    Morgan Stanley's assessment of increased turnover in the healthcare space is confirmed by the action in LABD. Last week, the ETF's five-day volume was nearly 46 percent above the trailing 20-day average, according to Direxion data. Only four Direxion leveraged ETFs saw bigger increases, including LABD's bullish cousin, the Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bull 3X Shares LABU 22.74%, which saw its five-day volume climb 58 percent above the trailing 20-day average.

    Is Yen Setting Up For An Epic Rally?

    Over the past few months I’ve been focusing a lot of my attention on the Japanese Yen. As an American investor who trades U.S. stocks (among other asset classes), I think it would be irresponsible of me to ignore a currency with such a high negative correlation with the S&P500. I’ve been pounding the table lately about how obnoxiously high the negative correlation currently is between Yen and U.S. stocks and I still think it’s extremely important that we pay attention. (more)

    Michael Kors Holdings Ltd (NYSE: KORS)

    Michael Kors Holdings Limited engages in the design, marketing, distribution, and retailing of branded women’s apparel and accessories, and men’s apparel. The company operates in three segments: Retail, Wholesale, and Licensing. The Retail segment is involved in the sale of women’s apparel; accessories, which include handbags and small leather goods, such as wallets; footwear; and licensed products comprising watches, jewelry, fragrances and beauty, and eyewear. The Wholesale segment sells accessories, such as handbags and small leather goods, footwear, and women’s and men’s apparel to department stores and specialty shops in North America, Europe, and Asia. The Licensing segment licenses its trademarks on products, such as fragrances, beauty, eyewear, leather goods, jewelry, watches, coats, men’s suits, swimwear, furs, and ties, as well as licenses rights to third parties to sell the company’s products in geographical regions, such as the Middle East, Eastern Europe, Latin America, the Caribbean, Asia (excluding Japan), and Australia.
    Take a look at the 1-year chart of Kors (NYSE: KORS) below with my added notations:
    1-year chart of Kors (NYSE: KORS)
    KORS has been in a major decline for most of the past year. However, over the past 4 months the stock has created a key price level to watch at $45 (blue). As you can see, $45 was both support back in May, and resistance over the most recent 2 months. A break above that $45 level should mean higher prices for the stock.

    The Tale of the Tape: KORS has a key level of resistance at $45. A long trade could be entered on a break through that level. However, if you are bearish on the stock, a short trade could be made on any rallies up to $45.

    Monday, September 28, 2015

    JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM/PB)

    Company Profile: JPMorgan Chase & Co. provides various financial services worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Consumer & Community Banking, Corporate & Investment Bank, Commercial Banking, and Asset Management. The Consumer & Community Banking segment offers deposit and investment products and services to consumers; lending, deposit, and cash management.

    Fundamental data:
    Trailing P/E: 11.10
    Forward P/E: 9.53
    EPS: 5.54
    Dividend Yield: 2.90%
    Beta: 1.22
    PEG: 1.40
    P/S: 2.46
    P/B: 1.03
    Profit Margin: 25.05%
    Operating Margin: 36.69%
    ROA: 0.91%
    ROE: 9.70%
    Qtrly Earnings Growth: 5.20%

    Additional fundamental data:

    Recently broke out of a 6-month triangle consolidation
    New 52-week High
    New all-time high
    Buying momentum (RSI) is positive and advancing
    Buying volume is neutral
    The stock has been outperforming the benchmark S&P 500 since July 2015
    Support is at $26.60

    The target is $30.50

    Note: If JPM/PB moves past the target, we suggest using a 3% trailing stop.

    Gold/Platinum Spread Bullish?

    This week platinum prices moved to new lows that we haven’t seen for seven years.  Both technical traders and fundamentalists had reason to sell, as we broke through long term support levels and several news stories are working against the metal.  Gold futures meanwhile, continue to trade favorably and outperform the other metal markets.  The divergence between these two metals has created an opportunity in the relative price of each contract.  (more)

    Sell Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY)

    The biotech sector garnered headlines as it plunged this week, but big pharmaceuticals stocks were hit just as hard. Most have similar patterns to the broader market indices. In other words, they have renewed their downside breaks.
    Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) was one drug stock that bucked the trend in September with a much stronger rebound than its peers following the broader market's breakdown in late August. While the pharmaceutical sector index formed a rising wedge pattern, which is typically bearish, from its late August lows, BMY scooted sharply higher.
    The stock even managed to poke its head above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Considering the total breakdown across most sectors of the market, that was rather impressive.
    But the good times ended abruptly with a bearish reversal on Sept. 21, the day presidential candidate Hillary Clinton tweeted she would release a plan to tackle rising drug prices the next day.

    Still, I believe the real driver for the decline was overall weakness as many market and sector indices broke down.
    Regardless, this bearish reversal ended BMY's defiance of its sector's foibles on the charts. The stock could not hold above its major moving averages. As prices hit resistance set by the ragged bottom of the mid-2015 trading range, the bears took over. 
    The next downside stop is the $57.50 area, not far below current trading. This marks the November and December lows, as well as the twin highs from January and March of 2014 (not shown on the chart), setting a nice floor for the stock. The rising trendline from November 2012 will also be in this area within a day or so. Recall that the broader market started a multimonth rally in November 2012, so this trendline is rather important.
    Should this support level fail to hold -- and given the overall weakness in the market it seems quite likely that it will -- the downside objective would be much lower. A breakdown would target the trendline from the start of the bull market in 2008 in the $50 area. There is also horizontal chart support there from the trading range seen late last year.

    Recommended Trade Setup:
    -- Sell BMY short at the market price
    -- Set stop-loss at $66.50
    -- Set initial price target at $57.50 for a potential 7% gain in two weeks
    -- Set secondary price target at $50 for a potential 19% gain in six weeks

    Will Markets Plunge Below 2009 Low? Tim Wood

    US Weekly Economic Calendar

    time (et) report period ACTUAL forecast previous
    MONDAY, SEPT. 28
    8:30 am Personal income Aug.   0.4% 0.4%
    8:30 am Consumer spending Aug.
    0.3% 0.3%
    8:30 am Core inflation Aug.   0.1% 0.1%
    10 am Pending home sales Aug.   -- 0.5%
    TUESDAY,  SEPT. 29
    8:30 am Trade in goods deficit Aug.   N/A -$59.1 bln
    9 am Case-Shiller home price index July   -- -0.1%
    10 am Consumer confidence index Sept.   94.5 101.5
    8:15 am ADP employment Sept.   -- 190,000
    9:45 am Chicago PMI Sept.   -- 54.5
    8:30 am Weekly jobless claims Sept. 26   N/A N/A
    9:45 am Markit PMI Sept.   -- 53.0
    10 am ISM Sept.   51.1% 51.1%
    10 am Construction spending Aug.   0.8% 0.7%
    TBA Motor vehicle sales Sept.   17.4 mln 17.7 mln
    FRIDAY, OCT. 2
    8:30 am Nonfarm payrolls Sept.
    190,000 173,000
    8:30 am Unemployment rate Sept.   5.1% 5.1%
    8:30 am Average hourly earnings Sept.   0.1% 0.3%
    10 am Factory orders Aug.   N/A 0.4%

    Saturday, September 26, 2015

    Stock investors haven’t been this bearish in 15 years

    Bearishness has reached an extreme not seen at least since the top of the Internet bubble in early 2000.
    Yet this is a bullish omen, according to the inverse logic of contrarian analysis: Extreme levels of bearishness indicate that there is a very robust “wall of worry” for the market to climb.  (more)

    Outlook for USDCAD and 30-year treasury yields

    It has been a number of months since we last looked at the USDCAD relationship and the CBOE 30 Yr Interest Rate, and in the that time there have been some interesting movements in both those charts. So for this week's SIA Equity Leaders Weekly we are going to look back on both of these and see what has happened recently.

    United States Dollar/Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)

    Back on July 15th, 2015 we reported that the currency pair just broke through resistance at the $1.2854 level and was closing in on further resistance at $1.31. Looking at the chart we can see that the USDCAD broke through that level earlier this month and is now wide open for further possible moves up to the $1.40 major resistance and psychological level. If by chance the momentum runs out, support levels are now seen at $1.2727, $1.1870, and lower at $1.1182.
    With the continued strength in the US dollar we have seen the continued weakness in most commodity influenced economies as well as specific investments within both the Energy and Materials sectors.
    Click on Image to Enlarge
    outlook for usdcad

    CBOE Interest Rate 30 - YR (TYX.I)

    When we last looked at the TYX.I back in mid-May, we discussed the substantial bounce off the 2.442% level up to resistance at around 3.097%. Up until late June, the index continued its upside move all the way up to current resistance at 3.272%. But since then, we have been range bound between the 2.709 support and that 3.272 resistance.
    Much of the tug-a-war has to do with the continued debate on the strength of the economy, inflation outlook, and the never ending discussion on possible interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in the US. Last weeks decision not to raise rates but comments afterwards that a rate increase this year still remains in the cards added continued uncertainty as to the when, and by how much.
    What is interesting is that the SMAX is still at a 10, again showing short term strength across all the asset classes.
    Both of these charts continue to give us relevant information that we need to monitor in order to make important decisions for our clients. Further updates can be anticipated.
    Click on Image to Enlarge

    Volkswagen's $VLKAY 35% Stock Drop Overdone?

    Volkswagen, a German auto manufacturer with 212 billion Euros in revenue over the past year, was on a public opinion collusion course this past week after the company was caught cheating on its emissions tests.
    The backlash caused Volkswagen's stock price to tumble sharply and its CEO, Martin Winterkorn, announced his resignation.
    A look at the stock price chart will show just how material this piece of news was to the wellbeing of the stock. However, as with all major drops in such a short time span, we need to understand if it is warranted, or if investors are simply looking to cash out.

    A good example of a time when significant news broke out, investors fled, and then the stock recuperated thereafter, was the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, involving an O&G giant, BP. Following the explosion and sinking of the Deepwater Horizon oil rig, a sea-floor oil gusher flowed for 87 days, until it was capped on July 15, 2010. BP's stock was slashed in half, but has bounced back quite substantially several months post-incident.
    BP BP 0.9% – July 2009 – July 2011
    Just goes to show that stock markets are never fully efficient, and it takes time for investors to figure out the real material impact of a major news event. In the case of Volkswagen, we may see a similar bounce. Volkswagen's woes seem to weigh on other auto-related stocks, such as the ones on our list, but they too seem poised to recover.

    Is This Why Biotechs $NBI Are Tumbling: "Head And Shoulders Top" Spotted In The NBI

    While no chart could have possibly predicted the populist outcry against Martin Skreli's widely publicized, and panned, decision to crassly boost the price of a Toxoplasmosis drug by over 5000% (doing something all other biotech companies have been doing but with all the grace of a bull in a china shop thus prematurely ending the party for everyone) only to promptly undo his decision following a furious public backlash which also resulted in Hillary Clinton proposing a price cap on specialty drugs and unleashing the worst drop for biotech stocks in 2015, now that concerns about a biotech top are in play, the biotech sector just can't seem to catch a bid, and as of moments ago was down over 3% dragging the Nasdaq just barely positive for the day even with the S&P up 0.8%
    One reason for the continuied weakness may be that, as Bank of America points out, there are signs the dreaded head and shoulders top has appeared in the Nasdaq Biotech Index. (more)

    Gold, Gold Stocks, Shining Opportunity. Mike Swanson

    Friday, September 25, 2015

    Stocks to Watch: VTL, PLUG, GPRO

    Vital Therapies Inc (NASDAQ:VTL) Today's rally confirms that the bounce is still in play and far from over. The stock broke out of a consolidation range as the stock closed up 91c on the day. Thursday’s high was $4.79, which is resistance for Friday’s continuation move. As long as the stock stay above the $4 area, the short-term bullish scenario is still intact.

    Plug Power Inc (NASDAQ:PLUG) surged in the final hour of trading closing slightly higher. The stock continues to show some nice strength in this market. Technical chart shows bullish sign with A/D rising and MACD on top of signal line. Keep it on your watch list going forward.

    GoPro Inc (NASDAQ:GPRO) looks like it is starting to turn back up and the daily technical indicators are giving the first bullish signs. The Stochastic oscillator is registering a bullish signal, as the %K has crossed above the %D and the RSI is rising slowly but hasn’t reached the 35% level. The stock has the following important levels. Resistance at $34 and support at $32.26