Saturday, April 19, 2014

Martin Armstrong – Reports of the Dollar’s Death are Greatly Exaggerated

from Financial Survival Network
We spoke with Martin Armstrong today about the Blood Moon, the Death of the Dollar, the crumbling Euro, and the ascent of China. While Martin sees China becoming the leading world economy eventually, he doesn’t see the dollar dying off as quickly as others do. He says that this is because there is no other currency to take its place at the present time. The war cycle is heating up at the same time as the civil unrest cycle… the first time this has happened since the 1700′s. Also the first of four Blood Moons has just passed, while the last will pass just as the Sovereign Debt Big Bang goes off in the third quarter of 2015. Interesting times ahead, that is for sure.
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Billion Dollar Day - a 1986 documentary about currency (forex) speculative trading

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The Frackers Gregory Zuckerman Unplugged (Ep. 231)

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10 Ways to Screw up Your Retirement

There are many creative ways to screw up your retirement. Let me show you how it’s done.
Supporting adult children. My wife Jo and I have friends with an unmarried, unemployed daughter who had a child. Our friends adopted their grandchild and are now in their late sixties raising a kid in grade school. The same daughter had a second child, and they adopted that one too. When she announced she was pregnant a third time, they finally said, “Enough! It’s time for a third-party adoption.”
Last time I spoke with them, their unemployed daughter and her boyfriend were living in their basement, neither contributing financially nor lifting a finger around the house. What began as a temporary bandage had become a permanent crutch. Our friends love their grandchildren; however, they’ve become bitter.

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Gold Forecast & Major Currency Is Collapsing

I want to make you aware of a possible major breakdown in the US dollar index and provide you with my gold forecast. If this scenario plays out then we will see the Euro explode to the upside and also see commodity based currencies like the Canadian dollar, and Aussie dollar rally. This would also be bullish for commodities in general like gold, silver, precious metals mining stocks etc…
The US dollar index chart below clearly shows a three year topping pattern with multiple price levels which when broken will trigger farther selling. These red horizontal lines on the chart show these price levels.
Critical support is around the 79.50 area which if breached should start a major wave of selling in the next few months. The initial wave of selling should take price all the way down to the 78.00 level before taking its first breather/pause.
*Trade Tip*
Most technical analysis books and traders think that the more times a support trend line has been touched the strong it becomes. That actually could not be any further from the truth.
Let me tell you how to trade trendlines.
1. You must have at least two pivot points (highs or lows) to be able to draw a trendline.
2. The 3rd and 4th touch of this line can be traded for a bounce.
3. Any touch of the trendline after the 4th is actually doing damage as it eats up the support volume.
4. A rising trendline like the one below clearly shows multiple pivot lows that when breached will trigger stops and flood the market with supply/sellers. It’s the perfect storm for a downward move.

Gold Forecast

My gold forecast has not changed in nearly a year as we wait for the gold market to bottom, then prove it’s self by breaking out of its basing pattern.
The bullish gold forecast is of the bigger picture. Most gold market traders and investors are caught up with the day to day price action and are growing tired of the range bound trading which gold has been doing for some time now.
In 2011 I pointed out the possible major topping pattern in gold, and that if price broke to new lows, then it would be lights out for at least a year if not two before the chart would build a new bullish base. And that leads us to my current gold forecast.

Gold Forecast & Gold Market Traders Conclusion:

In short, my gold forecast should be looked at from the big picture perspective. Getting involved in any gold stock, commodity or investment that is stuck in a range does carry more risk. It is easy to get shaken out of these positions a few times before the new bull market emerges.
The lowest risk position is to wait for the breakout of the basing pattern (yellow rectangle), only then can gold market traders get heavily involved to the long side.
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Friday, April 18, 2014

4 Dow Stocks Under Accumulation

The on-balance volume (OBV) is one of his favorite leading indicators, and here, MoneyShow’s Tom Aspray demonstrates how to use it on a longer time frame to identify stocks that are being accumulated.
The choppy nature of the 1st quarter is not surprising after the action in 2013. The sharp declines in the Nasdaq 100 and biotechnology stocks have caused some technical damage that would normally take time to repair.
The relative performance analysis of the SPDR Diamond Trust (DIA) suggests that it may be taking over market leadership. It has lagged for the past year as it is up just 13.8% versus a 21.1% gain in the Spyder Trust (SPY) and 26% gain over the past year in the PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQ).  (more)

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Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) Stock Likely to Keep Surprising Everyone on the Upside

With each earnings season comes an avalanche of corporate news, and not coincidentally, an abundance of high-probability trade setups. For my part, I like to wait for a company to report its results, let emotions settle somewhat, and then see how the news affected the charts. 
Semiconductor giant Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) reported first-quarter earnings after the market close on Tuesday. The company announced earnings per share (EPS) of $0.38, which beat the consensus estimate by a penny. On the top line, revenue of $12.8 billion was a touch below analysts' estimates, but the company's gross margin came in a better than expected at 59.7% versus 59%.  (more)

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SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR)

SunPower Corporation designs, manufactures, and delivers solar systems to residential, commercial, and utility customers. It operates in three segments: the Americas, the EMEA, and the APAC. The company offers solar power products, including panels, balance of system components, and inverters. It also designs, manufactures, and sells high-performance rooftop and ground-mounted solar power systems, as well as utility-scale photovoltaic power plants. In addition, the company offers operations and maintenance services, including remote monitoring, preventative, and corrective maintenance services, as well as rapid-response outage restoration and inverter repair services. Further, it leases solar power systems to residential customers. The company serves investors, financial institutions, project developers, electric utilities, independent power producers, commercial and governmental entities, production homebuilders, residential owners, and small commercial building owners.
Please take a look at the 1-year chart of SPWR (SunPower, Inc.) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of SPWR (SunPower, Inc.)
SPWR has been trading sideways for the last 6 months, trading between the $28 and $35 area. In addition, the stock had held an important level of support at $28 (blue) during that entire period of time. That level had also been a prior 52-week high resistance. Last week SPWR finally broke that support and should be moving overall lower from here.

The Tale of the Tape: SPWR had a key level of support at $28. Now that the stock has broken support, a trader might want to enter a short trade at or near the $28 level with a stop placed above that level. A break back above $28 could negate the forecast for a move lower.
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One Of The Greatest Opportunities In More Than A Decade / April 17, 2014
Today KWN is putting out a special piece which has some absolutely outstanding charts that were sent to us by David P. out of Europe.  These are charts that the big bullion banks follow closely in the gold and silver markets, as well as big money and savvy professionals.  David lays out the roadmap for one of the greatest opportunities in more than a decade for investors in the gold and silver space.
Below are the fascinating charts sent to us by David P. out of Europe which feature this opportunity.
Below are two charts showing the HUI Gold Bugs Index vs S&P 500.  This ratio has seen some massive moves the past 15 years.  The HUI index did bottom against the S&P 500 back in 2001 at 0.03 and then went as high as 0.55 in 2011, for a staggering 1,830% gain.  After that peak, it has fallen back to 0.1, which represents an 82% collapse (see chart below):
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Himax Technologies (NASDAQ: HIMX) Stock Could Soar 42%

The most basic rule in short-term trading is to buy low and sell high. It is also one of the most misunderstood and difficult to implement. While it seems like an easy task in hindsight, trying to do so in real time is a different story.
Investors have developed various technical tools to assist in determining when a stock is "high" or "low" in order to make buy and sell decisions. Truthfully, 98% of these indicators are nothing but derivatives of price, and therefore, completely useless when it comes to providing an edge.  (more)

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3 sectors to watch in an aging bull market

Another strong day for the market (^GSPC) yesterday has traders in better spirits after an ominous start to the week. Bullish comments by Janet Yellen on Wednesday helped, but one can’t help but feel we’re still in uncharted territory, with most market veterans seemingly grasping at straws to determine where we are in terms of the current bull market.
Many believe we are in the midst of an ongoing bull. Paul Schatz of Heritage Capital is one of these prognosticators, but senses our current bull market is getting close to be sent out to pasture. “The Bull market is old, and it’s wrinkly, but it’s not over yet,” Schatz opines in the attached video. “The bull market is transitioning to its final phase which is normal, bull markets don’t last forever.”
With that in mind, there are 3 sectors Schatz likes as the current bull market heads off into the sunset.  (more)

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Thursday, April 17, 2014

Crude Alert: Gartman Is Now Long Oil / by Tyler Durden / 04/16/2014 10:36 -0400
Having been stopped out of his “long punt” in copper futures (which are, we remind readers, levered via margin and not a simple cash percentage loss of capital), world-renowned (for something) Dennis Gartman has issued his latest missive – ultimate contrarian call – advice… “we are sellers this morning of copper and buyers of crude oil, one relative to the other, with the problems in China weighing upon the former while crude has held impressively as other commodity prices have fallen.” Crude oil longs beware… prepare to be Gartman’d.
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Legg Mason Inc (NYSE: LM)

Legg Mason Inc. is a publicly owned asset management holding company. The firm through its subsidiaries provides investment management and related services to institutional and individual clients, company-sponsored mutual funds and other pooled investment vehicles. Legg Mason Inc. was founded in 1899 and is based in Baltimore, Maryland.
Please take a look at the 1-year chart of LM (Legg Mason, Inc.) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of LM (Legg Mason, Inc.)
LM had a great run from its $30 low in June to its $49 peak in March. Two key levels that were created recently were $40 (blue) and $45 (black). Last week the first level of $45 broke and that should mean lower prices overall for the stock. The next stop on the way down should be the $40 level.

The Tale of the Tape: LM’s pullback didn’t hold $45, thus should be moving lower. A short trade could be made on a rally back up to $45, while a break back above $45 would be an opportunity to get long the stock. If the stock continues lower, a long trade at $40 might be considered.
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Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS) Buying the Dip Could Mean 25% Returns

There's nothing like doing a little boots-on-the-ground research on one of the stocks you like. So in the spirit of shoe-leather, detective-style research, I decided to assume the treacherous burden of a little midweek trip to U.S. gambling mecca Las Vegas, and particularly to properties owned by Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS).
The developer of casino gaming resorts in the Nevada desert -- and more importantly to its fiscal health, in the island nation of Macau -- has two premier properties on the Las Vegas Strip: The Venetian and The Palazzo. In fact, earlier today I contributed to the Palazzo's revenue by losing an undisclosed amount at the baccarat table.  (more)

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Podcast: Goldman Bearish On Commodities

Sumit Roy and Drew Voros discuss Goldman Sach's latest views on commodities. (Length: 6:22)

HAI's podcast is posted every Monday and looks back at the previous week's moves in commodities.

or click here
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Why Japanese Bonds Look ‘Terrible’: Kyle Bass

by Jeff Morganteen


Hayman Capital’s Kyle Bass believes Wall Street’s recent declines in the biotech and social media sector, which spread to global stock markets last week, shows cracks in the Japanese economy.
The Japanese Nikkei saw a huge drop last Friday, but the country’s benchmark 10-year government bonds did not see yields change as investors fled stocks. Bass, one of the biggest critics of the Japanese economy, has made a big bet on Japan’s economy devolving into a debt crisis.
[...] During an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Tuesday, the hedge fund manager said questions remain whether Japan will lose control of interest rates or whether the yen can serve as an “escape valve.” Bass sees inflation quickly surpassing Japaneses bond yields, he said.
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Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Why I'm Buying Stocks This Week

There were plenty of warning signs heading into last week's hard stock market selloff.
There was the precarious look of the financial sector... the historically low reading on the Volatility Index... and the endless stream of talking heads appearing on the financial networks urging investors to buy stocks.
The S&P 500 closed Friday at 1,816 – down about 4% from the all-time high it posted earlier this month. The index has given up all of its gains for the year. And there's a rapidly growing belief that the long-awaited correction is finally here.
But it isn't... not yet, anyway.  (more)
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Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE: DAL)

Delta Air Lines, Inc. provides scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo worldwide. Its route network comprises various gateway airports in Amsterdam, Atlanta, Cincinnati, Detroit, Memphis, Minneapolis-St. Paul, New York-LaGuardia, New York-JFK, Paris-Charles de Gaulle, Salt Lake City, Seattle, and Tokyo-Narita. The company sells its tickets through various distribution channels, including telephone reservations,, traditional brick and mortar, and online travel agencies. It also provides aircraft maintenance, repair, and overhaul services for aviation and airline customers, as well as offers staffing services, professional security and training services, and aviation solutions for third parties; vacation packages; and aircraft charters, and aircraft management and programs. The company has a fleet of approximately 900 aircraft.
Please take a look at the 1-year chart of DAL (Delta Air Lines, Inc.) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of DAL (Delta Air Lines, Inc.)
DAL has come down to a two different levels of support. First, the stock has approached an important up-trending level of support (blue) and, as you can see, has already broken that support. This would imply lower prices ahead for the stock, but first the $33 level (green) will have to be broken.

The Tale of the Tape: DAL has a key area of support at $33, but has already broken trendline support. A long trade could be made at $33 with a stop placed below that level of entry. However, if the stock were to break below $33 traders might want to look to get short on the stock.
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Gold & Silver Smashed As Incredible Event Unfold In Europe / April 15, 2014
On the heels of continued uncertainty around the globe, today an acclaimed money manager spoke with King World News about the gold and silver smash, China’s continued massive accumulation of gold, and the incredible events unfolding in Europe.  Below is what Stephen Leeb had to say in this fascinating interview.
Leeb: “Eric, overnight there was some data that was disappointing from China.  Gold and silver have been hit, but strangely enough, oil has been firm.  The key thing the markets are failing to realize is that the Chinese are getting the job done.  They are not going to slow their economy to the point where they have high unemployment and riots in the streets….
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Why the Shorts Are Wrong With TESLA (TSLA)

It’s no secret that high flying names like Facebook (FB), Netflix (NFLX), Priceline (PCLN) and Amazon (AMZN) have had a rough go of it over the last month. Still, when it comes to shorting names like those nothing can hold a candle to Tesla (TSLA). According to the research firm Markit, Elon Musk’s electric car company was the most shorted name on the Nasdaq 100 over the past month. This from a stock that, despite recent troubles, is up close to 360% in the last year.
“It’s been highly shorted for a while and i think you need to look at the reason why these companies are shorted,” says Joe Fahmy of Zor Capital. “People aren’t comfortable when stocks make these big moves too fast.”
Tesla, however, is different. “You can’t use traditional metrics to value companies that are disrupting our lives and revolutionizing the way we do things.” (more)

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China Demand News, Lessening Ukraine Tensions Sink Gold / By Dan Norcini / April 15, 2014
Last evening I posted the news concerning the World Gold Council’s report about Chinese gold demand for 2014. Please see that post for the details.
Also, chatter continues to surface that China’s economy is slowing. Now whether or not that is indeed the case can be argued, ( I tend to think that it is because of what is happening with the price of copper )  but many traders are viewing such talk as bearish for the price of the metal. The reason? If the economy slows the thinking is that there will not be as much money around with which to buy gold. Along this line is news out of China that its money supply grew only 12.1% in March compared to the same period the previous year. The People’s Bank of China has a target of 13% growth. This is the first time since April 2012 that the target has been missed.

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Tuesday, April 15, 2014

VIX Complacency Suggest Stocks Fall Further

While US equities have spent much of the past several weeks under pressure (the NASDAQ bio tech index has fallen over 21%, the NASDAQ Comp is down over 8% and the S&P500 is down over 4%), BofAML’s Macneil Curry is concerned that theVIX index suggests conditions should deteriorate further before greater signs of a base materialize.
Since 2012 most tradable market lows have come only after the VIX has pushed north of 20%. It is currently only 17%.
In such an environment, US Treasuries should rally further. Indeed, US 10yr yields have broken below key resistance at 2.608%/2.632%, exposing the long term pivot zone of 2.469%/2.399%. The Japanese ¥ should benefit as well. The 200d in $/¥ is key (100.81) A break below would do significant psychological damage and force out many trend followers.
Chart of the week: The VIX is not where it needs to be
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Parex Resources (TSX: PXT) Could Hit $15 Per Share

Canadian domiciled and listed Parex Resources (TSX: PXT), a junior oil producer operating in Colombia, is fast shaping up as one of the most exciting plays for investors seeking high growth emerging markets opportunities. Already the company’s share price has shot up a staggering 114% over the last year and there are a number of catalysts indicating it is still undervalued and will continue to climb in value.

Management has also indicated they believe the market is failing to recognize Parex’s true value. Accordingly, a share buyback was initiated in March 2014, which is scheduled to end either in March 2015 or when just over 10 million common shares have been acquired, representing around 10% of the total float. This will certainly act in concert with the catalysts below to drive Parex’s share price higher. (more)

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Tidewater Inc. (NYSE: TDW)

Tidewater Inc. provides offshore service vessels and marine support services through the operation of a fleet of marine service vessels. It provides services in support of offshore exploration, field development, and production, including towing of and anchor handling for mobile offshore drilling units; transporting supplies and personnel necessary to sustain drilling, work over, and production activities; offshore construction, ROV operations and various specialized services, such as pipe and cable laying. The company operates and charters deepwater vessels, including platform supply vessels, and anchor handling towing supply vessels that are used in transporting supplies and equipment from shore bases to deepwater and intermediate water depth offshore drilling rigs, platforms, and other installations; towing-supply and supply vessels for use in intermediate and shallow waters; and crewboats and utility vessels for use in transporting personnel and supplies from shore bases to offshore drilling rigs, platforms, and other installations.
To review Tidewater’s stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of TDW (Tidewater, Inc.) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of TDW (Tidewater, Inc.)
TDW has been trading sideways for the last 2 months. Over that period of time the stock has formed a clear resistance level at $50 (red). In addition, the stock has also created a strong level of support at $46 (green). At some point the stock will have to break one of the two levels the rectangle pattern has created.

The Tale of the Tape: TDW has a clear level of support at $46 and resistance ($50). The possible long positions on the stock would be either on a pullback to $46, or on a breakout above $50. The ideal short opportunities would be on either a break below $46 or on a rally back up to $50.
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Niska Gas Storage Partners (NYSE: NKA) A 9.6% Yield With The Best MLP You've Never Heard Of

Bond investors have a good thing going for them. They finance part of a company's operations in exchange for a return of capital at a later date and pocket steady interest payments along the way.
True, they miss out on any growth the company might have, but for the most part they're exposed to minimal risk. But what if you could have both an equity position and receive a high yield as well?
Enter the master limited partnership (MLP). This asset class behaves much like common stocks do; they're highly liquid, and as a shareholder, you benefit from the growth of the company. The secret to the appeal of MLPs lies in the tax treatment. Unlike a standard corporation, MLPs aren't required to pay any taxes; instead they pass it on to unit holders. (more)
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Jim Rickards: The Coming Crisis is Bigger Than The Fed

And will arrive within the next 3-5 years
Full description and comments at:…
James Rickards, financier and author of the excellent cautionary best-seller Currency Wars, has recently released a follow-on book: The Death of Money: The Coming Collapse of the International Monetary System. In it, Jim details how history provides plenty of precedent for the collapse that has begun amidst the major world currencies.
The historical progression is predictable enough that Jim is comfortable claiming that the next economic crisis we face will be bigger than the ability of the Federal Reserve (and the other world central banks) to contain it. And that such a calamity will happen within the next five years.

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Three Beat Up Momentum Stocks: ATRO, DXYN, SYUT

Astronics (ATRO - Snapshot Report) is a manufacturer of specialized lighting and electronics for the cockpit, cabin and exteriors of military, commercial transport and private business jet aircraft. ATRO is insulated within the aerospace and defense equipment industry that ranks in the top 31% of our Zacks Industry Rank. Currently, ATRO is a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).
The earnings story has been strong for ATRO for most of the last four years, with one major rough patch coming in 2012. Since then year over year numbers have improved and earnings estimates have continued to be revised to the upside. The price and consensus chart below shows the story of earnings over the last several years.

The technical picture may be turning a corner for ATRO. Usually I look for stocks trading above their 25 day moving average shifted by 5 days (25x5) that are firmly in uptrends.  (more)
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Monday, April 14, 2014

The Week Ahead: Volatility Cocktail, Molotov or Rocket Fuel?

by Jeff Miller, A Dash of Insight
This week brings the makings of an explosive volatility cocktail:
  1. Important economic data;
  2. Key Q1 earnings reports;
  3. Options expiration;
  4. A short trading week; and
  5. An edgy market environment.
This is a very unusual combination, and the various elements will compete for attention.
Follow up:
Prior Theme Recap
Last week I expected the theme to test the divergence between economic fundamentals and what I called "fluff." The latter term referring to the collection of top-calling, market-rigging, crash charts, and "This is the big one" stories. This was one of my better forecasts. The economic news was excellent. The market was terrible. Everyone had an explanation - all different, all dubious.  (more)
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Alarming Secrets US & Saudi Arabia Are Hiding From The World / April 13, 2014
On the heels of continued chaos and uncertainty around the globe, today a 40-year market veteran sent King World News an incredibly powerful piece about the alarming secrets the United States and Saudi Arabia are now hiding from the world.  This is an extremely timely and fascinating piece from Robert Fitzwilson, founder of The Portola Group.  Below is what he had to say in this exclusive piece for King World News.
By Robert Fitzwilson of The Portola Group
April 13 (King World News) – Alarming Secrets US & Saudi Arabia Are Hiding From The World
Last week saw a continuation of the pattern we have seen since the start of the year.  The HUI and gold were ahead 3%, while the popular stock market indexes declined 3-6% in the 5-day period.  For the year, the HUI and gold continue to lead major stock indexes by 17-20%, despite the continuing manipulation and suppression of the paper prices for gold and silver as well as overt support by the elites for stocks….
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Baltic Dry Index – Collapse in World Trade

Baltic-Dry-D 4-11-2014
The Baltic Dry Index falls for fourteen days in a row and is on a record low.The index shows the volume of world trade by sea. The collapse of the index warns shipbuilders are in the crisis, as demand for new container ships is rapidly declining in the West.
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