Saturday, August 2, 2014

Euro Going To Par vs the US Dollar : Martin Armstrong

IBEUUS-M 8-1-2014
The Euro pulled off an outside reversal to the downside (exceeded the June high and closing below the low). The cash closing was 13388 and we elected the first minor Monthly Bearish Reversal leaving us 132-1333 to watch very carefully. We are still looking now for the September turning point. Here the chart pattern is awesome. The Break-Line Channel has performed perfectly capturing the rally and we can see the Euro has been unable to breach that resistance. On the downside, we should be expecting a drop to par in the months ahead.
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In some parts of Europe, they are literally giving away land…

The last few years have not been kind to European property markets, to put it mildly.
Ireland, Spain, and Portugal, for example, experienced property bubbles and collapses even more severe than what happened in the US. It was gruesome.
But while some areas have recovered, others are still barely limping along 6+ years later.
Before reviewing the places in Europe that are cheap at the moment, let’s first define terms: what is ‘cheap’? I look at this in a few ways–  (more)

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Another Day, Another Sharp Fall in Commodity Prices

by Dan Norcini
Trader Dan Norcini

The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index is currently down 2.4% on the year. Grain and energy prices are continuing their descent. Meat prices are following. As written many times here over the past couple of months, meat prices will be coming down by the time we reach the 4th quarter. They are already breaking down at the wholesale level.
Seriously, I would like any OBJECTIVE reader to take one look at this chart and then tell me, with a straight face, that inflationary pressures are on the rise as it relates to the cost of tangibles.
If that is not enough, here is a chart of the Unleaded Gasoline.
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Man Who Executed QE1 Exposes True Horror Of 2008 Collapse / August 1, 2014
Today the man the Fed called on to execute QE1 and who also set up the Fed’s massive trading room, former Fed member and former Managing Director at Morgan Stanley, Andrew Huszar, for the first time exposed the true horror and magnitude of the 2008/2009 collapse.  What he had to say will shock KWN readers around the world.  Below is what Huszard had to say in this remarkable interview.
Eric King:  “Andrew, people forget but you were on Wall Street at the time of the 2008/2009 collapse.  And you were literally called upon by your bank to go in and access those emergency funds (from the Fed).  How hairy was that, those emergency meetings?”
Huszar:  “I actually left the Fed in early 2008, after 7 years there, and I was on Wall Street for about a year and a half before I went back (to the Fed) to help with QE.  And those were hairy days.  That’s the perfect adjective you were using in that we were desperately trying to figure out what stuff, and I could use other words than ‘stuff,’ we could pledge into the discount window at the Fed to get emergency funds to keep the lights on in the morning.”

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JC Parets Explains How To Allocate Capital

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A Comprehensive Guide to REIT ETFs

For those investors who've lost their appetite for Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) stocks, the impact of encouraging economic indicators over the past five months should act as an enticement. After bouncing back from a lackluster 2013, this special hybrid asset class pulled in their capital and scored well on the return book.

As per the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts (NAREIT), the FTSE NAREIT All REITs Index climbed a decent 14.8% against the 5.0% increase in the S&P 500 Index, from January through May.

Proving their mettle, REITs are again performing better than other stocks -- a feature that makes their addition to your portfolio a strategic one. Sidestepping interest rate issues and the Fed policy, REITs have shifted their focus to overall economic improvement, demand-supply dynamics and the corresponding impact on the rental rates and occupancy levels.

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The Big Breakout In Chinese Stocks

Chinese stocks are breaking out… But you won't see it mentioned in the mainstream press.

The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (the "SSEC") – China's version of the Dow Jones Industrial Average – rallied last Thursday… and broke a five-year consolidating-triangle pattern to the upside. This suggests Chinese stocks are about to rally.

And early investors could make double-digit gains over the next few months…

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The SSEC has been stuck in a bear market for the past six years. It's down more than 60% from its peak in 2007. But on Thursday, the index broke out of a five-year consolidating-triangle pattern.

This is such a long, drawn-out pattern that you can barely see the breakout on the eight-year chart. But there's no mistaking it on the one-year chart…

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This is a BIG DEAL. This is when new bull markets begin. And as I told you in May, the last time the SSEC emerged from a pattern like this, it rallied 500% in a year and a half.

I'm not looking for those types of gains this time around. But at the very least, the SSEC should be able to hit some of the overhead resistance lines on the long-term chart.

The first target is at about 2,500. If the SSEC can rally above that first resistance level, the next upside targets are 2,900 and 3,500. Based on current levels, investors could see gains of anywhere between 38% and 67% in the next few months.

It has been a long time since traders have had a chance to make money buying Chinese stocks. But we have a good opportunity right now. Last week's breakout from the consolidating-triangle pattern signals a major change in trend. And early investors could make double-digit profits in the next few months.

Now is the time to buy Chinese stocks.
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Friday, August 1, 2014

The Fate of the Stock Market Rests with One Stock: SOX

Semiconductors have fired a warning shot.
As the S&P 500 hovers near its all-time high, the semiconductor sector is taking a nosedive.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (the "SOX") fell nearly 4% last week. Individual semiconductor stocks fared even worse. Qualcomm (QCOM) declined 6%. Applied Materials (AMAT) fell 8%. And Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM) plunged 13%.
Semiconductors tend to lead the market. So this could be the first sign of trouble...
Take a look at this chart of the SOX...
Last week, the SOX broke below its 50-day moving average (DMA). Most technical analysts view the 50-DMA as the "line in the sand" separating intermediate-term uptrends from intermediate-term downtrends. So when an asset is trading above the 50-DMA, it's bullish. When it's trading below the 50-DMA, it's bearish.  (more)

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214 Years Of Sovereign Defaults In One Chart

From 1800 to 1950, Argentina had been a relatively low frequency ‘defaulter’, but as the following chart fromThe Economist shows, since then (as we noted here) they have made up for it.
Argentina has defaulted on its external debt seven times and on its domestic debt five times since independence almost 200 years ago, putting it somewhere in the middle of the historical ranks of the world’s serial defaulters.
However, as WSJ notes, a long history of economic booms and busts have scarred the national psyche and left external creditors wary as the country hovers on the edge of  its second default of the 21st century.
Argentina first defaulted on its sovereign debt in 1827, just 11 years after declaring independence from Spain.
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Chart of the Day - Supervalu (SVU)

The Chart of the Day belongs to Supervalu (SVU). I found the stock by sorting today's New High list for new high frequency in the last month, it signaled a buy on 5/12 the stock gained 28.69%.
SVU is one of the nation's largest supermarket retailer and largest food distributor. The company conducts its retail operations under three principal store formats: price superstores, under such retail banners as Cub Foods, Shop `n Save, Shoppers Food Warehouse, Metro and biggs. Also, the company sells food and non-food products at wholesale throughout the United States to retail food stores, mass merchants and through other logistics arrangements. The company's plans include growing its retail operations through new store development and acquisitions.

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Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE: WFC)

Wells Fargo & Company provides retail, commercial, and corporate banking services to individuals, businesses, and institutions. The company’s Community Banking segment offers checking and market rate accounts, savings and time deposits, individual retirement accounts, and remittances; and lines of credit, auto floor plan lines, equity lines and loans, equipment and transportation loans, education and residential mortgage loans, and credit and debit cards. Its Wholesale Banking segment offers commercial loans and lines of credit, letters of credit, asset-based lending, equipment leasing, international trade facilities, trade financing, collection, foreign exchange, treasury management, investment management, institutional fixed-income sales, interest rate, commodity and equity risk management, insurance, corporate trust fiduciary and agency, and investment banking services, as well as online/electronic products. The company’s Wealth, Brokerage, and Retirement segment offers financial advisory, wealth management, brokerage, retirement, trust, and reinsurance services.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) below with added notations:
1-year chart of Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC)
WFC has formed a trend line of support (blue) since its October bottom. Always remember that any (2) points can start a trend line, but it’s the 3rd test and beyond that confirm its relevance. WFC has tested its trendline support 3 different times. In addition, the stock also has a regular level of support at $50 (green) that sits just below the trendline.

The Tale of the Tape: WFC has a trendline support and a slightly lower $50 support. A long position could be entered on a pullback down to the trendline/$50 support area. A short position could be entered if WFC were to break below the trendline/$50 support area.
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A Tipping Point in Europe? Would It Impact the US?

Three popular stock indexes in Europe are giving multi-year rising support a heck of a test of late. Each index may have created a rising wedge, which two-thirds of the time suggests lower prices are ahead.
Argentina, with its potential default of debt, seems to be in the news this morning. In my humble opinion, what Europe does from here is VERY important!
IF ... If Europe is reaching a "tipping point", this price action very well could ripple into the S&P 500. Europe exhibited similar behavior in 2000 & 2007. Stay tuned!
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Thursday, July 31, 2014

Stock trader who called three crashes sees 20% collapse

Mark Cook, a veteran investor included in Jack Schwager’s best-selling book, “Stock Market Wizards,” and the winner of the 1992 U.S. Investing Championship with a 563% return, believes the U.S. market is in trouble.

The primary indicator that Cook uses is the “Cook Cumulative Tick,” a proprietary measure he created in 1986 that uses the NYSE Tick in conjunction with stock prices. His indicator alerted him to the 1987, 2000, and 2007 crashes. The indicator also helped to identify the beginning of a bull market in the first quarter of April 2009, when the CCT unexpectedly went up, turning Cook into a bull. 

What does Cook see now? (more)

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Macy’s, Inc. (NYSE: M)

Macy’s, Inc. operates stores and Internet Websites in the United States. Its stores and Websites sell a range of merchandise, including apparel and accessories for men, women, and children; cosmetics; home furnishings; and other consumer goods. The company also operates Bloomingdale’s Outlet stores that offer a range of apparel and accessories, including women’s ready-to-wear, fashion accessories, jewelry, handbags, and intimate apparel, as well as men’s, children’s, and women’s shoes. As of February 25, 2014, it operated approximately 840 stores under the Macy’s and Bloomingdale’s names in 45 states of the United States, the District of Columbia, Guam, and Puerto Rico, as well as the and Websites; and 13 Bloomingdale’s Outlet stores.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Macy’s (NYSE: M) with my added notations:
1-year chart of Macy's (NYSE: M)
With the exception of a brief break in April, and another in May, M has been range bound since March. Over that period of time the stock has formed a clear resistance at $60 (red). In addition, the stock has also created a common level of support at $56 (blue), which had also been resistance prior. At some point the stock will have to break one of the two levels that the consolidation has created.

The Tale of the Tape: M has clear levels of support ($56) and resistance ($60). The possible long positions on the stock would be either on a pullback to $56, or on a breakout above $60. The ideal short opportunity would be on a break below $56.
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Breakout in US Steel: X

Is it possible that US Steel (X) is finally catching a bid from a breakout (and reversal pattern) from a long-term resistance level?
Could this be the start of a new long-term uptrend in price?
Let’s take a look at the Weekly and Monthly Chart to give us some clues for a longer-term play.

First, let’s start with the long-term “Rounded Reversal” or Saucer Reversal pattern that has developed since mid-2011 to present (mid-2014).  (more)
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BRIC-Heavy ETFs At PE Ratios Below 9

With the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) currently trading at forward price earning multiples near 17, investors are regaining their appetite for emerging markets. A year after the taper tantrum smacked emerging markets, flows into the developing countries are picking up, lured in large part by the relative value proposition (and signs of easing in China). In a recent investment note that recommended emerging market stocks, BlackRock’s (BLK) chief global investment strategist cited improving liquidity -- six weeks of positive flows -- as a signal that sentiment is in shift mode.

The two largest emerging market ETFs, the $48 billion Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index ETF (VWO) and the $41 billion iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) both trade at forward multiples below 12. That’s even after a strong rebound during the past six months following the global micro-swoon that started the year:(more)

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Homebuilder Stocks Continue To Tank

Despite the “robustly” rigged GDP number, padded by a dubiously large attribution to construction and home improvement spending, the homebuilder stocks continue their huge sell-off, which started last week. I say that the GDP attribution for construction and home improvement spending is “dubious” because the numbers compiled, massaged and reported by the Government do not correlate with the reports being released by construction industry companies and industry associations or with home improvement/furnishings retailers.
Here’s a daily graph of the Dow Jones Home Construction Index:
The homebuilders currently represent what I believe to be on the of the lowest risk/return short-sell plays in the market right now. Every single one I look at is borrowing $100′s of millions to build up what has become “bulging” home and land inventories.
Most of them will not make it through the next downleg of the housing bear market.
I have written my first research report on a homebuilder short-sell idea .  I believe this stock has an easy 60% return from where it trades now. You can access this report here:   My Research Reports.
Because of the large sudden drop in the homebuilder stocks over the last week, I would suggest reading my report and waiting for an oversold bounce before entering the short. However, you can also short near money calls that expire 3 or 4 months out to start a position now. The reason to do this is you get to hold the premium from shorting the call. If the stock keeps dropping, you can cover the call for a profit or hold it to expiration and keep the entire premium. If the stock moves above the call price by expiration, you let the call exercise and establish a short at an average price of the strike price PLUS the premium you collected from shorting the call.
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Wednesday, July 30, 2014

U.S. Home Price Gains Slow … or Reverse

Standard & Poor’s reported(.pdf) that U.S. home price gains have slowed dramatically in recent months and, on a seasonally adjusted basis, home prices have now declined for the first time in two-and-a-half years as shown below.
As the the non-seasonally adjusted data and the year-over-year data in this report traditionally receive more attention than the adjusted data, few news headlines are indicating (gasp!) U.S. home price declines, but that may soon change.
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Louise Yamada: Market Still Climbing a Wall of Worry – Backed by the Fed’s Continued Easing

Also, Ryan Puplava, Erik Townsend and Rob Bernard

Jim welcomes back Louise Yamada CMT, Managing Director of Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors. Louise notes that the market has continued to shrug off bad news, which is a characteristic of structural bull markets. She also notes that the market will likely continue to climb its wall of worry as…
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Will Crashing Commodities Crash The Stock Market?

There are some analysts out there who maintain that the precipitous decline in commodity prices this year bodes ill for the stock market. Witness for example the dramatic drop in the price of corn. Above is a chart of the Teucrium Corn Fund (CORN), a proxy for corn futures. As you can see, corn prices are at multi-year lows right now. This is ironic given that the mainstream media assured us earlier this year that higher ag commodity prices were on the way.
[...] The price of wheat on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) doesn’t present a rosy picture, either. Here you can see an equally conspicuous plunge in the wheat price to multi-year lows.
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Quanta Services Inc (NYSE: PWR)

Quanta Services, Inc. provides specialty contracting services to the electric power, and oil and gas industries in North America and internationally. The company’s Electric Power Infrastructure Services segment provides network solutions comprising design, installation, upgrade, repair, and maintenance of electric power transmission and distribution infrastructure, and substation facilities. The company’s Oil and Gas Infrastructure Services segment provides network solutions to customers involved in the development and transportation of natural gas, oil, and other pipeline products. The company’s Fiber Optic Licensing and Other segment designs, procures, constructs, maintains, and owns fiber optic telecommunications infrastructure, as well as licenses the right to use these point-to-point fiber optic telecommunications facilities to its customers.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Quanta (NYSE: PWR) with the added notations:
1-year chart of Quanta (NYSE: PWR)
Over the last year PWR has consistently moved higher. Since October the stock has formed a trendline of support (blue) that it has been bouncing on top of. Always remember that any (2) points can start a trendline, but it’s the 3rd test and beyond that confirm its importance. PWR’s trendline seems to be very important now that it has been tested multiple times.

The Tale of the Tape: PWR has created a trendline of support over the last year. A long position could be entered on a pullback to that trend line, which is currently sitting right around $34-35, with a stop placed below that level. A short position could be entered if PWR were to break the trend line support.
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How To Profit From The Coming Propane Crisis

You may not realize this, but propane is about a lot more than just firing up the family grill.
In a very real sense, it’s the lifeblood of the entire rural lifestyle.
In the countryside, propane heats more than six million homes, fuels equipment and vehicle fleets, and is instrumental on farms for drying grain for storage and keeping livestock-filled barns warm in the winter.
But like any fuel, it’s susceptible to shortages that cause unwanted strain on entire rural communities, and decisively raises prices in supermarkets across the country. (more)

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Tuesday, July 29, 2014

NYSE Margin Debt Storms Back To All Time Highs

A month ago we explained why ordinary margin debt (such as that tracked by the NYSE) is largely irrelevant as it completely ignores the leverage of the largest investor class (aside from the Primary Dealers who use Fed reserves as collateral against which to purchase equity index futures), namely hedge funds and whose leverage blows out ordinary retail investors out of the water. Nonetheless, NYSE margin debt is still useful as an indicator of prevailing retail and less than sophisticated investor leverage, and thus euphoria, in the market.
It is from this perspective that we observe how after dropping modestly from all time highs hit in February, NYSE margin debt has recouped virtually all its losses and is now essentially back to all time highs. And as a parallel to that, investor net worth, defined as total Free Credit Cash and Credit Balances in Margin accounts less Margin Debt, has once again dropped to all time lows.

And while it may represent a mere subset of overall market leverage, it is perhaps worth rereading Deutsche Bank's warning on the topic from a year ago, in which the German bank, embroiled in the latest financial reporting credibility scandal, hopes that "not all margin calls come at one in case of a sell-off."
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Andrew Maguire: Hundreds Of Tons Of Gold Bought By East In 14 Days

from King World News

London metals trader Andrew Maguire told King World news that hundreds of tons of physical gold was bought by Eastern nations in just the last 14 days. Below is what London metals trader Andrew Maguire had to say in Part II of a series of interviews that has now been released on KWN.
Eric King: “Andrew, I know there were large sovereign bidders in this market near the $1,300 level. By taking gold through that level, how much gold was lost to the cartel (of Western central banks)?”
Maguire: “When you look at the billions of dollars of instantaneous sales, you see a $2.5 billion sale, you see a billion dollar sale. You are talking hundreds of tons of paper gold being sold….
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This Week in Money with Guests: Martin Armstrong, Ross Clark – July 26, 2014

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5 Beaten-Down Bargain Stocks: KGC, DNN, DML, K, NG

Are you worried about today’s lofty equity valuations? You should try combing through the market’s discount bin.
Stocks trading under $5 per share can be a great source of investment ideas. Just like your department store bargain rack, many securities are only put here because they’re out of season.
For those of us who don’t mind being out of step with Bay Street’s latest fashion, these stocks are sometimes outright steals. After combing through the discount bin myself, here are five companies that have been unfairly marked down.

1. Spartan Energy
Spartan Energy (TSX: SPE) is the fastest-growing junior in the Canadian oil patch. Since the company is only spending 80% of cash flow, management still has plenty of room to accelerate that expansion further through acquisitions. Although investors are starting to discover this company, it’s still a relatively unknown name on Bay Street. I don’t expect that situation to last for long.

2. Denison Mines
Denison Mines (TSX: DML)(NYSEMKT: DML) has been completely abandoned by the investment community due to low uranium prices. However, the industry is beginning to consolidate and a small player like Denison would make an attractive acquisition target. Even if no buyout occurs, the company still has a great asset portfolio and huge exploration potential.

3. Kinross Gold
Kinross Gold (TSX: K)(NYSE: KGC) has been hammered by falling metal prices and reckless spending like the rest of the gold mining industry. However, there are some signs of a turnaround at the struggling company. Its new CEO has suspended the company’s dividend, halted unprofitable mines, and slashed spending. With operating costs coming down, Kinross Gold’s shares could start to rally even without higher gold prices.

4. Novagold Resources
Novagold Resources (TSX: NG)(NYSEMKT: NG) has also struggled thanks to soft metal prices and higher costs. However, most the the company’s largest asset writedowns are behind it and tough cost-cutting measures are returning it back to profitability. In recent months a number of notable hedge fund managers have built large positions in this stock, including John Paulson, David Iben, and Seth Klarman. The smart money clearly sees lots of upside potential.

5. Sherritt International
Sherritt International (TSX: S) has struggled in recent quarters due to problems at its Cuban and Indonesian operations. This has left the stock trading at a fraction of book value. Given that most of these problems have already been priced in, any good news could send shares sharply higher.
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Two Buy Signals in Crude Oil

To help us analyze this chart of light, sweet crude oil, let’s use two momentum indicators:

  • The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator

  • The RSI (Relative Strength Index – not to be confused with “relative strength”).
The main portion of the chart shows the price action of light, sweet crude oil.
Just below the price action portion of the chart is the MACD indicator.
In this chart, the “MACD line” is green and the “signal line” is red. The signal line is the moving average of the MACD line, which is why it’s a bit slower to move.
There are two main requirements for a true MACD “Buy” signal. First, the MACD line must cross from below to above the signal line. Second, this must happen below the zero line (which is the midpoint of the indicator). “Buy” signals given when a price chart is in a downtrend are unreliable.
I pointed out some MACD “Buy” signals with the blue lines in the chart. The MACD just gave us a “Buy” signal on Wednesday.
At the bottom we have the RSI. When the RSI crosses above the 30 line, it’s a “Buy” signal. I drew green arrows from every legitimate RSI “Buy” signal to show where the price of light, sweet crude oil was at the time.
Notice I said “legitimate” RSI “Buy” signal. In relation to the MACD “Buy” signals, RSI “Buy” signals that are given when a price chart is in a downtrend are unreliable entry points for bullish positions. They become legitimate when the RSI makes a higher low that matches the lower lows in the price chart (a “positive divergence”). An example of this is the RSI “Buy” signal seen in November 2013.
Notice how the RSI gave us a “Buy” signal just over a week ago.
No indicator has a perfect track record. But these two momentum indicators are telling us light, sweet crude could be making a profitable move.
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Monday, July 28, 2014

Textron Inc. (NYSE: TXT)

Textron Inc. operates in the aircraft, defense, industrial, and finance businesses worldwide. It operates through five segments: Cessna, Bell, Textron Systems, Industrial, and Finance. The Cessna segment manufactures business jets, single-engine utility turboprops, and single-engine piston aircraft, as well as parts, maintenance, inspection, and repair services. The Bell segment manufactures and supplies military and commercial helicopters, tiltrotor aircraft, and related spare parts and services. The Textron Systems segment produces unmanned aircraft systems; armored vehicles, turrets and related subsystems, and marine craft and smart weapons. The Industrial segment offers blow-molded plastic fuel systems, windshield and headlamp washer systems, engine camshafts, catalytic reduction systems, and other parts. The Finance segment provides commercial loans and leases for aircraft and helicopters.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Textron (NYSE: TXT) with my added notations:
1-year chart of Textron (NYSE: TXT)
Like yesterday’s LINTA, TXT has also been trading mostly sideways for the last 5 months. Over that period of time TXT has formed a resistance level at $41 (red). In addition, the stock has also created a level of support at $37 (blue). At some point the stock will have to break one of the two levels that the sideways consolidation has created.

The Tale of the Tape: TXT has clear levels of support ($37) and resistance ($41). The possible long positions on the stock would be either on a pullback to $37, or on a breakout above $41. The ideal short opportunity would be on a break below $37.
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Maguire – “Criminal” CME Colluded To Save Banks Short Gold

from King World News
Today London metals trader Andrew Maguire accused the CME of being a “criminal” organization and for working in collusion with the bullion banks, who were dangerously offside recently on their massive short bets in gold, to facilitate the downside move in the gold market. Below is what London metals trader Andrew Maguire had to say in Part I of a series of interviews that will be released today on KWN.
Maguire: “These bearish bullion banks have bet billions of dollars on gold and silver closing below $1,300 gold and $20 silver. And with the CME assisting them in rigging the casino, these bets are almost always going to pay off….
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Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: U.S. Real Estate – The Good, Not So Good, and The Bad

Also, “What the LEI’s Tell Us About the Rest of the Year” and “Respecting the Message of the Markets”

BIG PICTURE07/26/2014
Jim’s first Big Picture topic covers the state of the U.S. real estate market. He finds that real estate reports have been mixed, and as usual it boils down to location, location, location. Jim also notes that the real estate market is interest rate driven, and it cooled off considerably as mortgage rates rose in the second half of 2013.
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