Saturday, August 30, 2014

JPMorgan Warns Military Escalation In Ukraine “May Lead To A Lehman-Style Shock” / by Tyler Durden / 08/29/2014 09:31
The sudden military escalation in Ukraine in recent days has, according to JPMorgan’s Alex Kantarovich, reduced the earlier hopes that the high level meeting in Minsk on 26 August would help to defuse the conflict. As Kantarovich warns, the markets are now bracing for the US/EU responses. In the worst case scenario, now appearing more likely, severe pressure on stocks may extend. As he concludes, “we believe that with the significant deterioration in the Ukrainian situation, markets may treat this as a Lehman-style shock.”
Via JPMorgan Cazenove,
Lehman moment. We believe that with the significant deterioration in the Ukrainian situation, markets may treat this as a Lehman-style shock. We note there are substantial fundamental differences between the current situation and the 2008/09 crisis; the oil price is now holding up relatively well and the economic contraction may not be that deep. On the other hand, for traded stocks, the challenges and risks to investability presented by sanctions could be practically open-ended. We demonstrate that revisiting the post-Lehman lows would imply downside of 50% from an index perspective, and ~40% from the forward P/E perspective (Fig. 1 and 2).
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Short the Euro in 2014

There are many indications that the euro is preparing for a fall, but don't short the euro just yet.
Since hitting a 2014 peak on May 6 of $1.3929, the euro has lost close to $0.08 against the dollar, or 5.4% as of Tuesday's close. At $1.317, the euro is trading at its lowest levels since September 2013.
Now there are a handful of economic factors taking place in Europe that all point to a lower euro value.
But before you try to profit off the weakening currency, it would be wise to wait for the market to kick out some of the bears. The currency is likely to rise in the short-term before starting its long-term slump.
Here's why - but first, a look at what's driving the euro lower...(more)

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Corn And Soybeans Can Drop Much More

Lately, there is a statement I have heard quite often that is a misconception. "Prices have already dropped so far, they can't go down that much more." As far as I am concerned, there isn't much validity to the hopeful way of thinking and recent events clearly show why.
"Prices can't go down much more." This is wishful thinking for any farmer who has not priced their grain going into harvest. Based on facts, prices can fall much farther than current levels. Another way to look at it; grain prices since 2010, when corn started to rally in June with farmers selling bushel after bushel for $4.00 was an unprecedented super rally and it has come to an end.(more)

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Huge Gains Waiting in a Forgotten Corner of the Market

While every other investor on the planet is distracted by the S&P 500’s new highs, you have the opportunity to book serious gains in one forgotten corner of the market.

Metals are setting up to deliver traders and investors impressive returns. And I’m not talking about gold and silver. Instead, you need to check out the base metals. Sure, copper and aluminum are not as glamorous as gold and silver. But I doubt you’ll complain much when you see these powerful setups…(more)

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Why The Casino Is Dangerous: There Is Nothing Below

The algos and chart traders have succeeded in their run at 2000 on the S&P 500, and are now attempting to convince the wary investor one more time that buying on the dips is a no brainer. And in that proposition they are, ironically, correct.  To buy this utterly manipulated market at these nosebleed valuation levels is about as brainless of an undertaking as is imaginable.

Now we even have it in a back-handed way from Deutsche Bank. Its chief strategist, David Bianco, claims that the S&P 500 is now trading at 17X reported trailing earnings and that historically when the multiple has gotten into that zone after three years or more of market gains (we have had five) good things do not happen.  But, yes, this time is different according to perma-bull Bianco because even though above 17 PEs are rare after many years of EPS growth, very low interest rates are even more rare and support higher PEs: (more)

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Infographic – The Process For Printing US Currency

Recently, a story surfaced about counterfeiting US currency that would be good enough for Hollywood. The Secret Service brought down a ring of counterfeiters who produced at least $77 million worth of fake American green!
The gang consisted of thirteen Israelis and Americans who operated a money-printing factory out of a New Jersey warehouse. The Secret Service had been chasing this group for years and even watched it import a printing press via a semi truck to their facility.
The sophistication and end product of counterfeiters varies. The spectrum ranges from the curious individual trying to reproduce cash on their home scanner, to North Korea creating sophisticated counterfeits.
Interestingly, it turns out it costs even the Fed almost 13 cents to print out each $100 bill. That probably would mean that renting the copters would be the most expensive part of Helicopter Ben’s operation.
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Friday, August 29, 2014

Ep. 250 Brien Lundin: Expert Gold Analyst Is Buying These Three Tiny Gold Stocks

This week Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter and resource analyst for more than 30 years, joins S&A Investor Radio to break down the markets.
Find out why he says investors should be buying select junior mining stocks right now.
And... you won't want to miss this!
Not only does Brien share his methodology for picking gold stocks, but he also reveals his three favorite micro-cap ideas...(more)
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Analyst: Fed’s low interest rates could bring ‘scary’ 60% market crash

Markets could soon face a fall of up to 60 percent, two experts told CNBC on Wednesday.
A jolt to international confidence in central banks will lead to a 30 to 60 percent market decline, David Tice, president of Tice Capital and founder of the Prudent Bear Fund, told CNBC’s “Power Lunch.” When this happens, he said, markets will face a “period of extreme turmoil.”
This crash will be precipitated, he said, by a disillusionment with the Federal Reserve’s “confidence game,” which will then see inflation rise, and the Fed scramble to raise rates. At that point, Tice added, “the Fed starts to lose control.”
Another market watcher also called for an impending fall.

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UTi Worldwide Inc. (NASDAQ: UTIW)

UTi Worldwide Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides non-asset-based supply chain services and solutions worldwide. It operates in two segments, Freight Forwarding, and Contract Logistics and Distribution. The Freight Forwarding segment offers airfreight forwarding, ocean freight forwarding, customs brokerage, and other related services. The Contract Logistics and Distribution segment provides contract logistics services, such as receiving, deconsolidation and decontainerization, sorting, put away, consolidation, assembly, cargo loading and unloading, assembly of freight and protective packaging, warehousing services, order management, and customized distribution and inventory management services. The company markets its services through a network of freight forwarding offices and contract logistics and distribution centers to the pharmaceutical, retail, apparel, chemical, automotive, and high technology electronics industries.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of UTi (NASDAQ: UTIW) with my added notations:
1-year chart of UTi (NASDAQ: UTIW)
After its steep February drop, UTIW has been basically range bound. Over that period of time the stock has formed a clear resistance at $10.50 (red). In addition, the stock has also created a level of support at $9 (blue). At some point the stock will have to break one of the two levels that the trading range has created.

The Tale of the Tape: UTIW has clear levels of support ($9) and resistance ($10.50). The possible long positions on the stock would be either on a pullback to $9, or on a breakout above $10.50. The ideal short opportunity would be on a break below $9.
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Why Rhodium Is Better Than Gold

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Adam Fergusson: When Money Dies | McAlvany Commentary

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Thursday, August 28, 2014

Martin Armstrong – Kiss Paper Money Goodbye and The Stock Market Will Keep On Climbing

from Financial Survival Network
We caught up with Martin Armstrong just before the holiday and the start of September. Martin says beware of early September, it may be a buying opportunity and a temporary new high. The world is a complete mess and that means the flow of funds are headed to Wall Street. Where else can large institutions park their Trillions? It’s the only game in town.
Get ready for electronic currencies. Your paper cash will literally become trash shortly and the world’s governments want it that way. Think of the billions more in taxes they’ll be able to extract. The day of the $10,000 bill is gone and soon the $100 bill will follow. Perhaps Bitcoin will be banned as well, it all remains to be seen. Just get ready for what’s next.
We also discussed Martin’s proprietary system Socrates, to which he’s devoted a large portion of his resources and his life. The system takes the emotion and opinion out of forecasting, tracing the flow of funds and confidence, thereby providing and unbiased forecast on what’s next. Sounds like an ad for the Financial Survival Network!
Click Here to Listen to the Audio
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Cheap Emerging Markets To Invest In

When everyone is convinced that something is going to happen, it's a good idea to bet on the opposite happening.
It's a good idea to make the "hard trade."
A hard trade is a trade that goes against your instincts. It goes against the consensus belief. It's a trade you don't want to tell your friends about because they'll tell you what a fool you are. (more)

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Xylem Inc (NYSE: XYL)

Xylem Inc. is engaged in the design, manufacture, and application of engineered technologies for the water and wastewater applications. The company operates in two segments, Water Infrastructure and Applied Water. The Water Infrastructure segment offers various products, including water and wastewater pumps, treatment and testing equipment, and controls and systems, as well as filtration, disinfection, and biological treatment equipment under the Flygt, WEDECO, Godwin Pumps, WTW, YSI, and Leopold names for transportation, treatment, and testing of water and wastewater for public utilities and industrial applications. The Applied Water segment provides pumps, valves, heat exchangers, controls, and dispensing equipment systems under the Goulds Water Technology, Bell & Gossett, AC Fire, Standard, Lowara, Jabsco, Flojet, and Flowtronex names for residential and commercial building services, industrial water, and irrigation applications.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Xylem (Nasdaq: XYL) below with added notations:
1-year chart of Xylem (Nasdaq: XYL)
XYL has essentially been trading sideways for the last 6 months, while forming a common pattern known as a rectangle. A minimum of (2) successful tests of the support and (2) successful tests of the resistance will give you the pattern. XYL’s rectangle pattern has formed a $40 resistance (red) and a $35 support (blue). A break above $40 would also be a new 52-week high.

The Tale of the Tape: XYL is trading within a rectangle pattern. The possible long positions on the stock would be either on a pullback to $35, or on a breakout above $40. The ideal short opportunity would be on a break below $35.
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Here’s The Real Reason Why Oil Is Tumbling

from Zero Hedge

As with every other asset-class in the world now, fundamentals have taken a very distant back-seat to both liquidity (flow) and positioning (technicals) as traders are increasingly (in one way or another) on the same side of the same trade. Mainstream media will proclaim US energy “independence”, US sanctions ‘winning’ over Putin, or US airstrikes ‘calming’ down Middle East uncertainty; but the real reason oil is plunging is… the biggest mass liquidation of speculative longs in recorded 30 year history over the last few weeks
Continue Reading at…
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Canadian Dollar Surges Most In 2 Years As "Tax Inversion" Euphoria Hits FX

It appears the Tim Horton's / Burger-King deal has sparked a serious surge in Canadian Dollar demand.

CAD is up almost 1% today - its best daily gain since June 2012 - pushing to its highest in a month. We suspect the momentum of the initial "tax inversion" flow merely triggered stops and broke key technical levels (200-day moving average) to extend the move as it seems the 'Canada as an offshore tax-haven meme' is a bit of reach...

200-day moving average is 1.0885...

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Wednesday, August 27, 2014

The PowerShares Agricultural Commodity Fund (DBA): One of the Best-Looking Trade Setups Today

It's time to buy agricultural commodities again.
In February, I said commodity bulls were going to make a lot of money this year. The PowerShares Agricultural Commodity Fund (DBA) – an exchange-traded fund made up of 17 different agricultural commodities – had been declining for three years... And it was showing signs that it was finally ready to move higher.
Readers who took my advice to buy made solid gains. DBA rallied 20% over the next three months.
But in May, I warned you to protect your profits. I said if DBA couldn't hold above the $28 level, it would likely drop to the next support line at about $26. And that's exactly what happened. DBA has given back about 60% of its gains from earlier this year. (more)

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Canada Is Back in Black / By Marin Katusa / Aug 26, 2014
The unconventional technologies that have unlocked the oil and gas within the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) will bring profits to companies operating there as long as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices stay above US$85 per barrel and natural gas prices remain above US$4 per million cubic feet (Mcf). We see the best of these companies having a great run for at least the next 12 months.
Here’s why.
Reason 1: The Weak Canadian Dollar
The Canadian dollar continues to weaken against the US dollar; we predict this trend will continue throughout 2014 and 2015. The Bank of Canada is in no rush to increase interest rates. Its latest Monetary Policy Report declared a “lower Canadian dollar should provide additional support” to the economy, which is certainly true for the WCSB. In fact, for every 10 cents the CAD weakens relative to the USD, the cash flows of exploration and production (E&P) companies increase by 15%.
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The Housing Market is Softening

The US housing market appears to be softening a bit after a torrid run-up in the last 18 months. National home prices, as tracked by the Case Shiller index, had jumped at nearly a 15% rate of change year over year as of earlier this year.  But the pace of change has slowed markedly in recent months to 8%.

The CoreLogic Home Price Index is showing a similar trend with prices slowing to 7.5% in recent months.  The average annual price change in 1978 has been about 5.5% so we appear to be coming more in-line with the historical average.

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Walter Investment Management Corp (NYSE: WAC)

Walter Investment Management Corp. provides business services to the residential mortgage industry in the United States. The company operates through six segments: Servicing, Originations, Reverse Mortgage, Asset Receivables Management, Insurance, and Loans and Residuals. The Servicing segment performs services for third-party investors in forward loans, as well as for on-balance sheet residential loans and real estate owned associated with forward mortgages. The Originations segment originates and purchases forward mortgage loans to third parties while retaining the servicing rights. The Reverse Mortgage segment primarily focuses on the origination, securitization, and servicing of reverse mortgage loans and a mortgage portfolio of federally-insured HECMs. The Asset Receivables Management segment collects post charge-off deficiency balances on behalf of third-party securitization trusts and other asset owners. The Insurance segment offers voluntary and lender-placed hazard insurance for residential loan customers, as well as other ancillary products to third parties through its insurance agency. The Loans and Residuals segment is engaged in the provision of assets and mortgage-backed debt of the residual trusts; and the unencumbered residential loan portfolio and real estate owned, which are associated with forward loans.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Walter (NYSE: WAC) with the added notations:
1-year chart of Walter (NYSE: WAC)
After declining from October into February, WAC has held a very important level of support at $24 (blue) for most of the last 6 months. No matter what the market has done since February, WAC always found support at that level when tested. Now, the stock has approached $24 again, and that could provide another bounce higher.

The Tale of the Tape: WAC has a key level of support at $24. A trader could enter a long position at $24 with a stop placed under the level. If the stock were to break below the support a short position could be entered instead.
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Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Gold and Oil on the Verge of Something Big

Everyone has been calling for a bottoming Gold the last year. But the fact is that gold and gold stocks are still clearly in a bear market. Just look at the 200 day moving averages. The previous trends were down and prices have been moving sideways for the past year.
A lot of newsletter and analysts are calling a bottom. Technically it's just a consolidation pattern. Consolidation patterns are a continuation pattern, meaning if the previous trend was down, which it was from 2011 till now, the odds favor price will continue lower after this consolidation.
If this consolidation does happen to be the bottom then we can classify it as a stage I base. Gold and gold stocks will start a new bull market, but price needs to break to the upside of this consolidation pattern. Until it breaks to the upside, it is still in a down trend.
Gold topped out over three years ago. And I am in no rush to try to pick a bottom and be a hero here. I'm just going to continue waiting on the sidelines until price confirms either a new bull market has started or for price to breakdown and we get another leg lower.
Oil Outlook
Taking a look at the big picture of crude oil the chart looks bearish. It too has been trading in a range since 2011 and the price is nearing the apex of a consolidation pattern.
It's important to know that a pennant formation which is what crude oil has formed are the most predictable when price breaks out of the pattern within the first 1/3rd of the formation.
The longer price consolidates and gets squeezed into the narrowing apex of the pennant pattern, the more unreliable. The trend breakout will be, and it becomes at best a 50/50 bet.
Crude oil's previous trend was up, but it's been consolidating for such a long time that price is now squeezed into the apex. This negates that bias for the previous trend to hold true so we have no idea which why it will breakout but when it does expect an explosive move.
A breakdown in crude oil will send price to the $70 or $75 per barrel range, and that will hammer on the Canadian dollar also. I can see $1 USD being equivalent to $1.20 Canadian in a year.
My Gold and Oil Conclusion
Looking at the US dollar, it has been rising partly due to the euro falling. This strong dollar will put a downward pressure on commodities overall.
Gold and oil have not been that exciting for investors since 2011 when they topped out, but both are setting up for massive moves that should last month, if not year or more. Once these new trends emerge expect to see them in the headline news every hour.
It does not matter which way these commodities breakout of the consolidation patterns. With the dollar continuing to rise and the bearish chart patterns for both gold and oil there is a good chance much lower prices are ahead.
This will catch most investor's off guard. It's human nature to try to predict tops and bottoms in the market. But this is why most investors get caught on the wrong side of the market. The market always has a way of catching the majority of people on the wrong side of a position.
I am happily sitting in cash with some of my investment capital waiting for gold and oil to breakout of these large patterns. I would not be surprised if we see $900 gold, gold stocks like the gold bugs index $HUI to be at $150, and $70 per barrel for crude oil. I am not saying this is what I want, but you should be mentally prepared so you can get back into cash position and so you can take advantage of falling prices with me.
Big money will be made on the next price movements in these commodities. Whether we have to go long the market or short sell the market. Either way, we can make money. So don't be a hero and try to pick a top or bottom, just wait for confirmed breakout then invest with the trend.
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Embry – We Are Headed For A Financial System Apocalypse / August 25, 2014
Today a man who has been involved in the financial markets for 50 years warned King World News that the world is now headed for a financial system Apocalypse.  John Embry, who is business partners with billionaire Eric Sprott, also included an ominous quote in his fascinating interview below.
Embry:  “We just hit a new high on the S&P today. I can’t say I’m surprised because there’s been so much intervention in these markets as they attempt to maintain confidence in the system.  All the economic releases in the United States are being falsified….
Continue reading the John Embry interview below…
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Chart of the Day - Apple (AAPL)

The Chart of the Day belongs to Apple (AAPL).  I found the stock by looking at the All Time High list and then used the Flipchart function to review the charts,  Since it signaled a buy on 8/13 the stock gained 4.42%,

Apple Inc. is engaged in designing, manufacturing and marketing mobile communication and media devices, personal computers, and portable digital music players. The Company's products and services include iPhone, iPad, Mac, iPod, Apple TV, a portfolio of consumer and professional software applications, the iOS and Mac OS X operating systems, iCloud, and a range of accessory, service and support offerings. It sells its products worldwide through its online stores, its retail stores, its direct sales force, third-party wholesalers, and resellers.

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July New Home Sales Tank

by David Kranzler
Investment Research Dynamics

July is typically the 2nd or 3rd best month of the year for home sales. This should especially be true this year given that mortgage rates are at their lowest in almost a year and the banks are relaxing credit standards. But today’s new home sales report showed the lowest monthly rate of sales since March and it was well below the sales rates reported during the so-called “polar vortex” months.
I have presented a detailed analysis of new home sales which you can read here: July New Home Sales
Continue Reading at…
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S&P Makes History On Lowest Volume Of The Year / by Tyler Durden on 08/25/2014 16:05
As we noted early on, by the time the cash markets opened this morning, the narrative of compliant Kuroda and drug-peddling Draghi had been painted as worth more than a yellowing Yellen’s hawkish comments. And so it was that stocks, despite weak macro data this morning in the US - bad news is great news – surged as cash markets opened and tagged S&P 2,000 for the first time ever. However, once Europe closed, that exuberance faded in stocks. Treasuries rallied (30Y closed -2bps) with the front-end weakening very modestly. USD strength (on notable EUR weakness) sent oil and precious metals modestly lower on the day but Copper had a good day (+0.6%). Today was the lowest S&P futures (non-holiday) trading of the year as the Nasdaq rose for the 9th day in a row.
So to summarize – Bonds Up, Stocks Up, USD Up… But VIX Up, Oil Down
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Short Callaway Golf Co (NYSE: ELY)

Callaway Golf Company, together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells golf clubs and balls. It offers drivers, fairway woods, hybrids, irons, wedges, and putters. The company also designs and sells golf accessories, such as golf apparel and footwear, golf bags, golf gloves, headwear, towels, umbrellas, eyewear, and travel gear under the Callaway Golf, Odyssey, and Strata brand names. In addition, it licenses its trademarks and service marks for use on golf related accessories, including golf apparel and footwear, prescription eyewear, golf gloves, umbrellas, and practice aids. The company sells its products directly to golf retailers, sporting goods retailers, and mass merchants; and to third-party distributors in the United States, as well as in approximately 100 countries worldwide.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Callaway (NYSE: ELY) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of Callaway (NYSE: ELY)
Over the last 10 months ELY has created a key level of support at $7.50 (blue) and that $7.50 level is also the “neckline” support for the stock’s head and shoulders (H&S) reversal pattern. Above the neckline you will notice the H&S pattern itself (gray).
Remember, patterns such as an H&S need to confirm to have the meaning that they imply. Confirmation of the H&S occurred when ELY broke below its $7.50 support.

The Tale of the Tape: ELY has confirmed a head & shoulders pattern. A short trade could be entered anywhere near $7.50 with a stop placed above that level. A break back above $7.50 could negate the forecast for a move lower, thus a long position could be entered instead.
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Monday, August 25, 2014

Penn Virginia Corporation (NYSE: PVA)

Penn Virginia Corporation is engaged in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas in various onshore regions of the United States. Its operations include the drilling of unconventional horizontal development wells in shale formations primarily in the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas. The company also has operations in the Granite Wash in the Mid-Continent, the Haynesville Shale and Cotton Valley in East Texas, the Selma Chalk in Mississippi, and the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania. As of December 31, 2013, it had 1,213 productive wells; owned approximately 280,400 acres of leasehold and royalty interests; and had proved reserves of approximately 136 million barrels of oil equivalent.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Penn (NYSE: PVA) with the added notations:
1-year chart of Penn (NYSE: PVA)
After hitting a peak of $18 on three different occasions, PVA finally gave up the good fight and started a decline. In May and June the stock found a repeated area of support at $14 (purple). PVA finally broke that support back at the end of July and eventually found a lower level of support at $12. The stock seems to be getting ready to retest $14 as resistance before heading lower.

The Tale of the Tape: PVA had a key level of support at $14. Now that the stock has broken support, a trader might want to enter a short trade at or near the $14 with a stop placed above the level of entry. A break back above $14 could negate the forecast for a move lower.
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These 3 High-Yield Stocks are a Bargain: TEI, DO, NPK

Investing surprises can be good or bad.
The CEO negotiates a sale of the company at a 50% premium to the current market price is good.
Finding out that the CEO is arrested for falsifying financial statements and the share price drops 50% is bad.  (more)

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Generation Jobless -- Young & Unemployed : Canadian Documentary

Youth unemployment sits at nearly twice the national rate for the overall labour market in Canada. The financial crisis of 2008 wiped out all the youth employment gains that had been made since 2002. The Agenda examines the social and economic consequences of jobless youth.

Baby boomers, the greediest generation control the companies and they ship our jobs to china. They rode a wave of rising wages and home prices for decades. The rang up 16 trillion in debt we have to pay. They abused every drug on earth and gave us feminism which destroyed the family. They ruined American and cashed out on the backs of gen x and gen y. Now these same idiots who got good jobs with no college degree call young people lazy for not slaving for min wage with a degree
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Buy Arc Resources for growth and income from its oil and gas

Royalty trust ARC Resources Ltd. (TSX—ARX) got off to a strong start this year. With record first-quarter production and funds from operations (FFO), the company says it’s well on its way to achieving its 2014 targets.
ARC Resources is one of Canada’s leading conventional oil and gas companies. Its operations are focused in five core areas across western Canada, providing it with an extensive resource base of high-quality oil and natural gas development opportunities.
For the three months ended March 31, 2014, ARC’s FFO were $292.3 million, or $0.93 a share, compared with $202.4 million, or $0.65 a share, in the same period of 2013. Revenues rose 46 per cent to $551.4 million.
The results reflected higher realized commodity prices as well as increased crude oil and liquids and natural gas production. Production of 105,699 barrels of oil equivalent, or boe, per day, was 11 per cent higher than the prior period. This increase was primarily attributed to production from new wells at Parkland/Tower, a Montney Formation liquids-rich natural gas play in B.C., and Ante Creek, another Montney Formation oil and gas play in northern Alberta.
This year, ARC expects to deliver a 15 per cent increase in annual production to greater than 110,000 boe per day. The company is well into the execution of a $915 million capital budget in 2014, with a continued focus on oil and liquids-rich gas development to capitalize on the strength of crude oil prices and natural gas development spending in low cost, high rate of return natural gas projects.
ARC should earn $3.70 per share in 2014. ARC is a buy for growth and income.
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