Monday, December 22, 2014

Saudi Arabia Refuses To Cut Oil Output Even If Non-OPEC Members Do / by Tyler Durden on 12/21/2014 12:45  
As even Reuters observes this morning when discussing the ongoing crude rout, “the market slide has triggered conspiracy theories, ranging from the Saudis seeking to curb the U.S. oil boom, to Riyadh looking to undermine Iran and Russia for their support of Syria.” It appears said theories will continue raging for a long time, because as Saudi Arabia’s oil minister who has been extensively in the news in the past couple (that means “two” as per Janet Yellen) of month explained, the biggest OPEC oil producer said on Sunday it would not cut output to prop up oil markets even if non-OPEC nations did so, in one of the toughest signals yet that the world’s top petroleum exporter plans to ride out the market’s biggest slump in years, and that the price of crude is not going up any time soon.
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Eaton Corp plc (NYSE: ETN)

Eaton Corporation plc operates as a power management company worldwide. Its Electrical Products segment offers electrical components, industrial components, residential products, single phase power quality, emergency lighting, fire detection, wiring devices, structural support systems, circuit protection, and lighting products. The company’s Electrical Systems and Services segment provides power distribution and assemblies, three phase power quality, hazardous duty electrical equipment, intrinsically safe explosion-proof instrumentation, utility power distribution, power reliability equipment, and services. The Hydraulics segment offers power products, controls and sensing products, and fluid conveyance products, as well as filtration systems solutions, heavy-duty drum and disc brakes, and golf grips. The Aerospace segment provides hydraulic power generation systems, controls and sensing products, fluid conveyance products, and fuel systems for commercial and military use. The Vehicle segment designs, manufactures, markets, and supplies drivetrain and powertrain systems, and critical components that reduce emissions and enhance fuel economy, stability, performance, and safety of cars, light trucks, and commercial vehicles.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Eaton (NYSE: ETN) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of Eaton (NYSE: ETN)
ETN started off 2014 by trading mostly sideway, but eventually the stock fell of a cliff in July, and then again in September and October. However, ETN has rallied nicely since that October low. During the entire year, the stock has also made a habit of finding either support or resistance at $70 (purple). A break above that level now should mean higher prices for the stock.

The Tale of the Tape: ETN has a key level of resistance at $70. A long trade could be entered on a break through that level. However, if you are bearish on the stock, a short trade could be made on any rallies up to $70.
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This Week in Money with Guests: Ross Clark, Victor Adair, John Mauldin

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Lightstream Resources Given Average Rating of “Hold” by Brokerages (TSE:LTS)

Shares of Lightstream Resources (TSE:LTS) have been given a consensus recommendation of “Hold” by the twelve ratings firms that are presently covering the stock, AnalystRatings.Net reports. Five equities research analysts have rated the stock with a sell recommendation and six have assigned a hold recommendation to the company. The average 12-month target price among brokers that have issued a report on the stock in the last year is C$4.47.

Several analysts have recently commented on the stock. Analysts at TD Securities downgraded shares of Lightstream Resources from a “buy” rating to a “reduce” rating in a research note on Friday. They now have a C$0.70 price target on the stock, down previously from C$4.50. Separately, analysts at RBC Capital downgraded shares of Lightstream Resources to an “underperform” rating in a research note on Wednesday. Finally, analysts at RBC Capital downgraded shares of Lightstream Resources from a “sector perform” rating to an “underperform” rating in a research note on Wednesday.

Shares of Lightstream Resources (TSE:LTS) traded down 10.07% on Wednesday, hitting $1.25. 3,948,302 shares of the company’s stock traded hands. Lightstream Resources has a 52 week low of $1.18 and a 52 week high of $9.09. The stock has a 50-day moving average of $2.4 and a 200-day moving average of $5.36. The company’s market cap is $250.8 million.
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Three Bad Investing Habits to Dump in 2015

The latest research from DALBAR is very graphic…
Over the past 20 years, individual investors averaged a measly 2.53% a year, versus the S&P 500, which chalked up 9.02%. In other words, your average annual return was 6.49% less than what it could have been each year. Ouch.

So what’s going on?
When you look back over the last two decades, two things are readily apparent – a) that the markets have been rocky and b) that there’s plenty of blame to go around. The Fed, the big banks, bubbles, China, Washington, Wall Street, the ECB… it doesn’t matter. At some level, they’re all guilty.  (more)

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US Weekly Economic Calendar

time (et) report period ACTUAL CONSENSUS
10 am Existing home sales Nov.   5.18 mln 5.26 mln
8:30 am GDP Q3   4.5% 3.9%
8:30 am Durable goods orders Nov.   43.4% 0.3%
9:55 am Consumer sentiment Dec.   -- 93.8
10 am Personal income Nov.   0.5% 0.2%
10 am Consumer spending Nov.   0.5% 0.2%
10 am Core inflation Nov.   -- 0.2%
10 am New home sales Nov.   458,000 458,000
8:30 am Weekly jobless claims Dec. 20   N/A N/A
  Christmas Day
None scheduled
  None scheduled
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Saturday, December 20, 2014

2015 & 2016 Will Be Among The Most Critical Years In Western Civilization

from King World News
Today an acclaimed money manager told King World News that “2015 and 2016 will be among the most critical years in Western civilization.” He also said that gold is going to regain it prominence in the monetary system and silver is headed into the stratosphere.
Stephen Leeb: “Above all I am focused on oil prices and its temporary negative effect on gold. But longer-term what is developing is phenomenally bearish for the West and bullish for the East. Several reports from brokerages, Goldman Sachs among them, have been released in recent days saying that if oil prices stay near current levels you could see a $1 trillion reduction in capital expenditures across the globe.
Continue Reading at…

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Historical reminder on the mirage of central bank ‘control’ on markets

As Russia is re-learning this morning, Central Banks tinker at the edges of sentiment. Sometimes they are successful in swaying it one way and another–at least for a while. But in the end, their ‘bold’ interventions fail miserably, lurching from one crisis to the next, evaporating buckets of taxpayer dollars in the process.  See: Russian rate hike fails to stop the Ruble’s crash.
Here is a direct video link to a BBC documentary on the Sterling crash of September 1992 when the British government lost ‘control’.
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The 10 Best Stocks in Canada

Passive investors — those who only invest in index or mutual funds — are really at the whims of the market. Unfortunately, the market can be quite fickle as it can go from having a good year, to turning in lousy performance faster than your broker can send you the next quarterly statement. We saw this at the end of 2014 as tumbling oil prices took the resource-focused Canadian stock market down with it.
Canadian market
Thankfully, there is a much better way to invest than to be tossed and turned by the whims of the market. Simply invest in great stocks and hold them for the long term. We see this demonstrated by looking back at the great stocks of the past decade, where long-term holders saw returns of 1,000% or more, while the Canadian stock market, as measured by the S&P/TSX Composite, was only 56%.  (more)

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Four Safe Oil Stocks to Buy Today: DRQ, PSI.TO, DMLP, WPT

Oil stocks are down big over the past few months... and that has many investors looking to buy.
But if you buy the wrong ones, you could lose a lot of money. As we've shown you before, even many giant, well-known oil stocks have more room to fall.
Today, I'll show you several ways to find a safe, stable company in the oil sector. And four stocks that should weather the turbulence in the oil market well...
As regular Growth Stock Wire readers know, oil prices have collapsed. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is down nearly 50% from its June high. And the decline in oil prices has destroyed oil stocks.
For example, Bakken producer Continental Resources is down 55% over the past four months. Shale producer Halcón Resources peaked at $7.50 in July. Today it trades near $2. (more)

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Follow Icahn's Lead to 40% Potential Upside in This Beleaguered Stock: Hertz Global Holdings (NYSE: HTZ)

Among the phrases that investors hate to hear, "accounting restatements" ranks near the top.

At a minimum, it means that a company maintained sloppy accounting standards. Worst case, it means that a fraud was perpetrated, such as a leading sales executive lying about contracts or a financial officer cooking the books.

Yet, there can be a silver lining. It can push shares well below intrinsic value to the point that upside results simply from new management cleaning up the mess. That's the setup in place for Hertz Global Holdings (NYSE: HTZ (more)

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Teradata Corporation (NYSE: TDC)

Teradata Corporation provides analytic data platforms, marketing and analytic applications, and related consulting services in the United States and internationally. Its analytic data platforms comprise software, hardware, and related business consulting and support services for data warehousing, active intelligence, big data analytics, and data discovery. The company’s products comprise Teradata Analytic Database Software that delivers near real-time intelligence; Teradata Workload-Specific Platforms; Teradata Aster Discovery Platform, which is pre-configured with Teradata Aster Database; and Teradata Logical Data Models that are blueprints for designing an integrated data warehouse.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Teradata (NYSE: TDC) with the added notations:
1-year chart of Teradata (NYSE: TDC)
TDC has been trading sideways for all of 2014. In addition, since the beginning of February, the stock has found support at $40 (green) whenever that level has been approached. Now that the stock is there again, traders should be able to expect some sort of bounce. However, if the $40 support were to break, much lower prices should follow.

The Tale of the Tape: TDC has a key level of support at $40. A trader could enter a long position at $40 with a stop placed under the level. If the stock were to break below the support a short position could be entered instead.
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Soybeans Likely The Next Market to Take a Big Dump

A look at the January soybean chart indicates that prices are roughly the same price level as they were at the end of October. Taking out a couple of extreme sessions from both the upper end and the bottom end, January soybeans have been range bound between $10.20 and $10.50. Currently prices are near the low end of this range. Generally speaking, the market has been stronger than what we would have expected given the bearish fundamentals.
The USDA is providing some new information as "food for thought" moving into next year. In its baseline projections, the USDA recently indicated they'll be projecting soybean acreage next spring at 84.0 million acres, virtually identical to planted acreage this year. It further projects a slowdown in usage resulting in rising projected ending stocks pegged at 519 million bushels for the next crop year. This compares with recent projections of 410 million bushels carryout for the 2014/15 marketing year. (more)

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Friday, December 19, 2014

Universal Health Services, Inc. (NYSE: UHS)

Universal Health Services, Inc., through its subsidiaries, owns and operates acute care hospitals, behavioral health centers, surgical hospitals, ambulatory surgery centers, and radiation oncology centers. The company’s hospitals offer various services, including general and specialty surgery, internal medicine, obstetrics, emergency room care, radiology, oncology, diagnostic care, coronary care, pediatric services, pharmacy services, and/or behavioral health services.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Universal (NYSE: UHS) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of Universal (NYSE: UHS)
UHS rallied nicely from April up until September before starting to trend lower into November. Since that November low, UHS has steadily rallied higher. Twice over the last 2 months the stock has resistance at $110 (blue), and that $110 has been a key price in the past as well. A break above $110 should mean a run back up to the 52-week high resistance at $115 (red).

The Tale of the Tape: UHS has a key level of resistance at $110. A long trade could be entered on a break through that level. However, if you are bearish on the stock, a short trade could be made on any rallies up to $110.
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2015 Predictions – Doom Is Always 6 Months Away

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Crude Prices Pump-And-Dump After Saudi “Temporary Problem” Comments / by Tyler Durden / 12/18/2014 10:17
Saudi Oil Minister al-Naimi says it is “difficult, if not impossible” for OPEC or Saudi to give up market share by cutting crude production, and data confirmed Saudi crude oil exports rose to 6.897mln bpd in October, up from 6.722mln bpd in September. This was then followed by the UAE Oil Minister confirming OPEC will not change output levels and has no intention of holding an emergency OPEC meeting. However, the crude complex got a boost by ignoring this and anchoring on al-Naimi’s comments that, as Bloomberg reports, the global oil markets are experiencing “temporary” instability caused mainly by a slowdown in the world economy, sabre-rattling that increased supply from regions outside OPEC (cough US cough), where oil-production costs are higher, is affecting the market.
Oil prices jumped from $56.50 to briefly break above $59 (as it did yesterday in its spike) before giving it all back…

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Insys Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ: INSY)

Insys Therapeutics, Inc., a commercial-stage specialty pharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes supportive care products. It focuses on utilizing its proprietary formulation technologies to address the clinical shortcomings of existing commercial pharmaceutical products. The company markets Subsys, a proprietary sublingual fentanyl spray for breakthrough pain in opioid-tolerant cancer patients; and Dronabinol Oral Solution, a proprietary orally administered liquid formulation of dronabinol. It offers its Subsys through its incentive-based commercial sales force.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Insys (Nasdaq: INSY) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of Insys (Nasdaq: INSY)
INSY peaked last March at $58 and lost over 60 percent of its value from there. The stock based out over the next (3) months, started to rally from there, and all the while has hit a very important level of resistance at around $42.50 (red). No matter what the market has or has not done since April, INSY has not been able to break through that area of resistance.

The Tale of the Tape: INSY has a key level of resistance at $42.50. A long trade could be entered on a break through that level. However, if you are bearish on the stock, a short trade could be made on any rallies up to $42.50.
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Bankers See $1 Trillion of Zombie Investments Stranded in the Oil Fields

There are zombies in the oil fields. 

After crude prices dropped 49 percent in six months, oil projects planned for next year are the undead -- still standing upright, but with little hope of a productive future. These zombie projects proliferate in expensive Arctic oil, deepwater-drilling regions and tar sands from Canada to Venezuela.

In a stunning analysis this week, Goldman Sachs found almost $1 trillion in investments in future oil projects at risk. They looked at 400 of the world's largest new oil and gas fields -- excluding U.S. shale -- and found projects representing $930 billion of future investment that are no longer profitable with Brent crude at $70. In the U.S., the shale-oil party isn't over yet, but zombies are beginning to crash it.

The chart below shows the break-even points for the top 400 new fields and how much future oil production they represent. Less than a third of projects are still profitable with oil at $70. If the unprofitable projects were scuttled, it would mean a loss of 7.5 million barrels per day of production in 2025, equivalent to 8 percent of current global demand.
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Thursday, December 18, 2014

Now Is the Right Time to Buy Google Stock: Here Is Why - GOOG

Investors are not very excited about Google (NASDAQ: GOOG  ) (NASDAQ: GOOGL  ) stock lately: Shares of the search powerhouse have fallen by 13% from their highs of the year, as the company delivered disappointing results for the last quarter and investors are becoming increasingly worried about the competitive risk that Facebook (NASDAQ: FB  ) represents.
On the other hand, Google is still a rock-solid player in the much promising online advertising industry, and current valuation looks like an attractive entry point in such a profitable growth company.
The challenges
The online advertising industry is inherently dynamic, and it's gone through important changes over the last several years. The mobile computing revolution is offering enormous potential for growth, as global consumers are spending an increasing amount of their time online via multiple screens. However, growing supply is having a negative impact on ad prices, which is a negative factor for Google. (more)

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Ellis Martin Report with Wellgreen’s Greg Johnson

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Is This Why The Stock Market Volatility Has Increased So Dramatically? / December 17, 2014
With stocks and oil rallying, today King World News is pleased to feature a key chart that helps to explain why the volatility in the stock market has increased so dramatically. This piece also covers Russia’s troubles as well as what is happening in the crude oil markets.
Here is the Investors Intelligence report along with the all-important sentiment chart: The DJ and S&P 500 fell more than 3% last week while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 lost 2%. Losses continued Monday as crude oil fell to $55/bbl. The US recovery remains strong but Russia moved to the forefront of troubled economies around the world. Many of our market indicators retreated with the averages and advisors continued to shift away from bullish stances. So far their worries are short term with mentions of the traditional seasonal strength between Christmas and New Years Day. 
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6 Reasons To Buy This Tech Stock Today: Red Hat: RHT

There's an expression that goes, "the higher the risk, the higher the reward." For example, some see risky micro-caps as one of the only ways to reap rapid big gains in a stock.
Well, what if you could get the big reward, without having to take on enormous risk? It’s not easy, but it’s not impossible either.
In fact, in his Top 10 Stocks newsletter, my colleague Dave Forest recently discussed the qualities that he looks for when in search of up-and-coming winners. Dave wrote: "The qualities that make businesses great inevitably come down to a few basic themes -- the kind of check-list items that we can reliably look for in stocks both famous and completely unknown, to determine whether they might suddenly deliver outperformance..."
Dave pointed out six basic themes that, when all are possessed by a company, make it a "must-buy."  (more)

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Should You Worry About Our Canadian Dollar Weakening?

Dear Fellow Fools,
In last week’s Take Stock we discussed the benefits of casting your gaze beyond the Canadian border for the equity portion of your portfolio. This may appear to pose some logistical issues that, for many, seem daunting.
We’d like to provide some insights into one of these potential issues and why, in our mind, it’s one you can easily dismiss.
The elephant in the room
It’s a given. If you invest in U.S. equities, you are likely to deal with currency fluctuations.
It’s also a given that we (or anyone else, in our opinion!) aren’t able to accurately predict currency moves, especially in the short term. (more)

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Enphase Energy Inc (NASDAQ: ENPH)

Enphase Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, and sells microinverter systems for the solar photovoltaic industry. Its microinverter system consists of an Enphase microinverter and related accessories that convert direct current power to grid-compliant alternating current power; an Envoy communications gateway device that collects and transmits performance information from each solar module to the company’s hosted data center; and Enlighten Web-based software platform that collects and processes this information to enable customers to monitor and manage their solar power systems.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Enphase (Nasdaq: ENPH) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of Enphase (Nasdaq: ENPH)
Over the last 3 months, ENPH has been consolidating within a couple of long-term price levels. First, ENPH has formed a clear support level at $10 (blue). In addition, the stock has also been forming a down trending resistance level (red). These two levels combined have ENPH stuck within a common chart pattern known as a descending triangle that will eventually have to break one way or another.

The Tale of the Tape: ENPH is currently trading within a large descending triangle. A long trade could be made on a break above the down trending resistance or a pullback to $10 support. A short trade could be made on ENPH if the stock breaks below the $10 support level.
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Wednesday, December 17, 2014

6 Oversold Oil Stocks that Offer Huge Upside Potential: SDCJF, MAUXF, CAZA, MQLXF, BXE, AXAS

This Oil shock is the opposite of the usual suspect. Most assume that the promised Oil shock was on the upside ( Goldman Sachs- 2007 when oil was $137/barrel was calling for $200 oil!) We all would take a fraction of that price today ( $59.00 midday low on Dec 11th for WTI).

Is there a conspiracy that created this commodity crash that has happened with such speed and magnitude that if your head is still on your shoulders it may need altering with either Scotch , Vodka or maybe heroine!

Food for thought: We all know that the current administration hates fossil fuels. We all know that Iran is building a "bomb" and that Russia has invaded Ukraine & finally that by next year we will be the world's largest Oil producer in the world ( horizontal drilling ). This of course is a very troubling development for the largest Oil producer in the Middle East, namely, Saudi Arabia .  (more)

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CEMIG: CIG Brazilian Bargain?

Shares of the country’s biggest electric utility Companhia Energetica de Minas Gerais (CIG), or CEMIG, have fared far worse.
It has given up almost 35% of its value since the start of September and now trades at 4.7 times the company’s trailing 12 months’ earnings and less than 1 times sales. At these levels, the American depositary receipt (ADR) yields more than 7%.
CEMIG has also added transmission infrastructure and renewable-energy resources in late October, securing antitrust approval to buy half of a giant 676.2-megawatt wind farm.
With a debt-to-assets ratio of 31.7%, excessive leverage isn’t a problem, either. Rather, CEMIG’s stock is cheap because of what Brazilian regulators may do to address the hydropower-dependent country’s worst drought in 80 years. (more)

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An Epic Blowout In Crude

The FED’s easy money has encouraged rampant energy speculation and over-investment, resulting in more than $500 billion in new loans and investments in just the past 4 years. And so long as Crude prices stayed comfortably above $90, investments made money and everyone was happy. But once energy prices started falling, the decline quickly became a negative loop-back effect because the very high levels of leverage could not tolerate the move. Whenever asset prices fall in a highly levered market, there is often a sudden lack of liquidity to absorb the speculators’ need to unwind leverage, leading to desperation and fire sales. In the case of energy, the sudden disappearance of “investors” highlights just how speculative the underlying market had become.

It’s not exactly a Black Swan event, since Crude and other assets occasionally move with incredible ferocity. But to a highly levered and speculative population who chose to ignore the risks as being far too improbable to worry about, it’s a situation where debt cannot be offloaded at any reasonable price. At $55 bbl Crude prices, much of the new debt simply does not work, meaning that significant energy company junk bond defaults will occur. Although this is obviously bad for the energy complex, it also has very real implications for broader systemic risk. (more)

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iRobot Corporation (NASDAQ: IRBT)

iRobot Corporation designs, develops, and markets robots for consumer, defense and security, telemedicine, and video collaboration markets worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Home Robots and Defense and Security Robots. It offers consumer products, including floor vacuuming and washing robots, floor sweeping robots, and pool and gutter cleaning robots. The company also provides defense and security products, such as ground robots comprising 510 PackBot line of small unmanned ground robots; the small unmanned ground vehicle multi-purpose ground robots; the 110 FirstLook small, light, and throwable robot; and the 710 Warrior multi-purpose robot for carrying heavy payloads. It markets its robots to consumers through chain stores and other national retailers, as well as through its on-line store; and to the U.S. military, and other government agencies.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of iRobot (Nasdaq: IRBT) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of iRobot (Nasdaq: IRBT)
For the most part, IRBT has been trading sideways for the last 7-8 months. During that stretch the stock has had a tendency of creating key price levels at the increments of $2. For example, the current level of support is $34 (blue), and that level has been prior support and resistance in the past. Next, $32 (red) has popped up a couple of times. And of course, running across the bottom is the lower level of support at $30 (green).

The Tale of the Tape: IRBT is approaching its key level of $34. A long trade could be made at that level with a stop placed under it. A short trade could be made on a break below $34 with the expectation of a fall down to the next $2 level at $32.
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Oil’s Crash is Just the First Stage of the $9 TRILLION Implosion

The Oil story is being misinterpreted by many investors.
When it comes to Oil, OPEC matters, as does Oil Shale, production cuts, geopolitical risk, etc. However, the reality is that all of these are minor issues against the MAIN STORY: the $9 TRILLION US Dollar carry trade.
 Drilling for Oil, producing Oil, transporting Oil… all of these are extremely expensive processes. Which means… unless you have hundreds of millions (if not billions) of Dollars in cash lying around… you’re going to have to borrow money.
Borrowing US Dollars is the equivalent of shorting the US DOLLAR. If the US Dollar rallies, then your debt becomes more and more expensive to finance on a relative basis.
There is a lot of talk of the “Death of the Petrodollar,” but for now, Oil is priced in US Dollars. In this scheme, a US Dollar rally is Oil negative.
Here’s the US Dollar:
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