by Dan Norcini
Trader Dan Norcini
USDA
released its Supply/Demand numbers this AM. Based on those, they are
expecting a record US corn crop of 13.935 billion bushels on a yield of
165.3 bushels/acre. The 2013-2014 ending stocks are expected at 1.146
billion bushels, down from their last estimate of 1.157 billion. The
2014-2015 carryover is expected to total 1.726 billion bushels.
Soybean production should total 3.635 billion bushels this year using
a 45.2 bushel/acre yield. Analysts had been looking for a 3.267
billion bushel crop using a yield of 45.0 bushels. Carryover is expected
to jump significantly to 325 million bushels, up from the current
marketing year’s 125 million bushels. USDA once again lowered those
ending stocks in the beans which has been the wild card that is keeping
this market trading in such a schizophrenic fashion. Traders are simpy
unsure of how to deal with such a tight carryover in the face of a huge
new season crop. The spread action is resulting in contortions and
erratic swings in price.
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