Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index: A Warning Sign for Gold Stocks

It's time for a pause in the gold-stock rally.
 
The Market Vectors Gold Miners Fund (GDX) is up 77% since bottoming in January. It has been a straight move higher – practically vertical.
 
And by the end of the year, gold stocks are likely to be even higher than where they are today.
 
But in the short term, we may have a problem. You see, one of my favorite gold-stock timing indicators just triggered a sell signal...
 
Take a look at this chart of the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index (or "BPGDM")..(more)

US Weekly Economic Calendar

time (et) report period ACTUAL forecast previous
MONDAY, APRIL 25
10 am New home sales March   518,000 512,000
TUESDAY,  APRIL 26
8:30 am Durable goods orders March   2.4% -3.0%
9 am Case-Shiller home prices Feb.   -- 5.7%
10 am Consumer confidence index April   96.5 96.2
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 27
8:30 am Advance trade in goods March   -$62.0 bln -$62.9 bln
10 am Pending home sales March   0.4% 3.5%
2 pm FOMC announcement     0.25-0.50% 0.25-0.50%
THURSDAY, APRIL 28
8:30 am Weekly jobless claims 4/23
258,000 247,000
8:30 am Gross domestic product 1Q   0.7% 1.4%
10 am Housing vacancies 1Q      
FRIDAY, APRIL 29
8:30 am Employment cost index 1Q   0.6% 0.6%
8:30 am Personal income March   0.4% 0.2%
8:30 am Consumer spending March   0.2% 0.1%
8:30 am Core inflation March   0.1% 0.1%
9:45 am Chicago PMI April   -- 53.6
10 am Consumer sentiment April   90.0 89.7