Friday, January 4, 2013

Cytec Industries Inc (NYSE: CYT)

Cytec Industries Inc., a specialty chemicals and materials company, engages in developing, manufacturing, and selling chemical products primarily for aerospace composites, structural adhesives, automotive and industrial coatings, electronics, inks, mining, and plastics markets. It operates in four segments: Engineered Materials, In-Process Separation, Additive Technologies, and Coating Resins. The Engineered Materials segment offers aerospace-qualified and industrial-grade prepregs, resin infusion systems, structural/surfacing adhesives, formulated resins, and carbon fiber reinforcements. The In-Process Separation segment provides mining chemicals, including flotation promoters, collectors, frothers, dispersants and depressants, solvent extractants, flocculants, filter and dewatering aids, antiscalants, and defoamers; and phosphines comprising flame retardants, catalyst ligands, high purity phosphine gas, and biocides. The Additive Technologies segment offers polymer additives, such as ultraviolet light stabilizers and absorbers, high performance antioxidants, and antistatic agents. The Coating Resins segment provides specialty coating resins comprising coating additives and waterborne resins; conventional and ultraviolet curable powder coating resins.

To review Cytec’s stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of CYT (Cytec Industries, Inc.) below with my added notations:
First, CYT has formed a clear resistance at $70 (red), which would also be a 52-week high breakout if the stock could manage to break above it. In addition, the stock is climbing a potential trendline support level (blue). These two levels combined have CYT sandwiched within an ascending triangle, assuming the trendline is valid. The stock will eventually have to break one of those two levels.

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John Mauldin – The Financial Crisis In 2013 Will Be A Debacle

from King World News
In this second portion of his remarkable interview, today John Mauldin told King World News we are once again headed for a financial crisis in 2013. Mauldin, who is President of Millennium Wave Securities, laid out exactly what will cause the crisis to erupt in 2013 so that KWN readers globally can prepare.
Eric King: “John, we’ve been in this ongoing sort of rolling financial crisis that flares up from time to time, but inside of this Japan is going to be recognized as the basket case it really is. It’s a little bit frightening because of some of the problems we’ve already been seeing. How bad will this be as this starts to unfold for the financial markets globally?”
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Gold Prices— Bull Market Looking Stretched

You know, gold prices have been strong for a lot of years now (over 10), and we are now in the third major price consolidation for this commodity in recent history. I think investors need to be very careful with gold and silver this year. When I look at both charts, I can’t help but feel that we’re about to experience a major breakout, either upward or downward, from the recent trend. Whatever transpires, I think we’re going to see this new price trend happen this year, and it will make or break gold stocks for sure.
I think the marketplace is a little tired of gold, and it’s pretty evident that a lot of institutional investors have considerably reduced their exposure to the commodity. If policymakers can come together to provide more action and certainty for capital markets, I think we’re going to see relative calm for the U.S. dollar this year, and this means that gold prices (which tend to move inversely to the U.S. dollar) are less likely to advance.
While I generally favor some exposure to gold as a portfolio strategy, I wouldn’t be a big buyer of gold stocks right now. If I were to take on new positions on the stock market, I would want to buy value.
One mid-cap gold miner that I like right now is Osisko Mining Corporation (TSX/OSK), even with consolidation in gold prices. In addition to trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX), the stock also trades in Germany and on the over-the-counter (OTC) market. This gold miner is growing its production in Canada, and the company’s goal is to hit production of one million ounces of gold per year by 2016. Osisko’s stock chart is featured below:

Chart courtesy of
On Wall Street, there was a lot of hype for gold prices going into 2013, but most dealers recently cut back on their expectations. Gold prices below $1,700 an ounce, to me, definitely signal a futures market that is in consolidation, with no real price trend beginning.
In the large-cap space, a lot of gold stocks were hit hard in 2012, and share prices decreased more than gold prices retreated. This illustrates the withdrawal of institutional investors from the gold sector, as well as the pressure that rising costs are placing on earnings.
As I say, I wouldn’t be in any rush to buy gold stocks at this time. Fourth-quarter earnings among many of the largest producers may be disappointing, and expectations for the first quarter of 2013 have come down considerably.
Gold is a commodity that I think most investors should have some exposure to, but the bull market has been going for a long time. Even though inflationary pressure is going to be a very real threat in the coming years, a major correction in gold prices wouldn’t surprise me at all this year.

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Weight Watchers (NYSE: WTW)

Weight Watchers International, Inc. engages in the provision of weight management services primarily in North America, the United Kingdom, Continental Europe, Australia, and New Zealand. It offers various services and products that are built upon its weight management plans, including nutritional, exercise, and behavioral tools and approaches. The company also sells a range of products, including bars, snacks, cookbooks, food, and restaurant guides with PointsPlus values, Weight Watchers magazines, and PointsPlus calculators In addition, it provides Internet subscription products comprising Weight Watchers Online that offers online content, functionality, resources, and interactive Web based weight management plans; and Weight Watchers eTools, an Internet weight management product that allows users to manage the day-to-day aspects of weight management plans online, discover different food options, stay informed, and keep track of their weight management efforts. Further, the company offers iPhone and Android applications, which provide subscribers with access to a suite of weight-loss tools, as well as helpful content; and iPad application that offers subscribers with access to a set of recipe tools.

To review Weight Watcher’s stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of WTW (Weight Watchers International, Inc.) below with my added notations:
Over the last (4) months WTW has created a couple of short-term price levels to watch. First, WTW has formed a clear resistance level at $57.50 (red). In addition, the stock has also been forming an uptrending support level (blue). These two levels combined have WTW stuck within a common chart pattern known as an ascending triangle that will eventually have to break one way or another.

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WTI CRUDE OIL price has further upsie potential as it leads the energy complex higher. But how much higher can it go and for how long can it continue to beat the likes of ICE GAS OIL and NYMEX heating oil which also have upside potential? Bloomberg reported this morning that: "Oil rose from the highest close in two months in New York as the U.S. House passed a Senate- approved deal that will avert tax increases and spending cuts that threatened growth in the world’s biggest economy.Futures increased as much as 0.7 percent after rallying 1.1 percent Dec. 31." As you can see from the above daily chart of WTI CRUDE it has violated resistance just above 91 which opens the way for it to go higher...resistance levels are seen at +-95, +-100 and +-105. But will CRUDE continue to outperform the rest of the energy complex, how high can it go and is there greater potential in GAS OIL? Questions which are answered in our ENERGY service.

Shiller PE Ratios for Global Stock Markets – Where’s the Value?

Cyclically Adjusted Price/Earnings Ratios (Shiller PEs) for global stock markets…

Chart of the Day - Urban Outfitters (URBN)

The "Chart of the Day" is Urban Outfitters (URBN), which showed up on Wednesday's Barchart "All-Time High" and "Gap Up" lists. Urban Outfitters on Wednesday posted a new all-time high of $41.00 and closed +4.12%. TrendSpotter has been long since Nov 26 at $38.34. In recent news on the stock, Urban Outfitters on Dec 10 said it plans to open 49 new stores in FY2013 and the company reported Q4 same-store sales in the high single-digit range. Urban Outfitters, with a market cap of $5.5 billion, operates two business segments consisting of a lifestyle-oriented general merchandise retailing segment and a wholesale apparel business.


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The Yen – What Everybody Knows Probably Isn’t Worth Knowing

by Pater Tenebrarum,
Even Dennis Gartman is Shorting the Yen…

As CNBC reports, even Dennis Gartman is now shorting the Japanese yen. Along with every Tom, Dick, Harry, their aunt Elsie and her dog Freddie as it were. If ever there was a consensus trade, this must be it. Let us look at Gartman’s arguments. They actually make superficial sense as you will see:
“The Japanese government has given a “sell” signal for the yen, Dennis Gartman, editor of The Gartman Letter, said Wednesday on CNBC.
“I’ve been short of yen for quite some time,” he said. “I’m short of yen against dollars, generally.”
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