Friday, September 21, 2012

Lindsey Williams & Chris Waltzek: Soon, the Federal Reserve Will Own YOUR House

by SGT,
Pastor Lindsey Williams provides an update on world events from his viewpoint. Stay tuned for this one all the way through. Lindsey explains how QE3 and the mortgage backed securities fraud will make us all serfs to the Federal Reserve, as Lindsey Williams warned would happen more than a year ago. The Banksters will own it all soon enough, just as Thomas Jefferson lamented:
“If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered…I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies… The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.”
CLICK HERE for the interview.

Nenner: War to Erupt in 2012, Dow to Fall to 5,000

A major war will break out in 2012 and send the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunging to 5,000, says former Goldman Sachs analyst Charles Nenner.

Although the carnage won't take place until the end of next year, the time to get out of the stock market is now.

Just look at the S&P 500 for guidance.

"We went long in 2009 in the first quarter [when] we had a price target of 1,356 on the S&P 500, so we're getting close," Nenner tells Fox News.

 Former Goldman Sachs analyst Charles Nenner predicts a major war will break out in 2012.
"It doesn't mean that we go down immediately, it can take a couple of months. And if we would close in on 1,356, which we're pretty close, we're 1 percent away."

"So I told my big clients, hedge funds, pension funds, and big firms to go almost totally out of the market."

War, Nenner says, will spur the massive sell-off in two years, sending the Dow to 5,000.

"I also do war and peace cycles and it shows that were going to have a major war starting at the end of 2012, beginning of 2013. And I think that's going to do it," says Nenner, without providing specifics.

Even amid Wall Street's rally, only one in seven Americans has faith a lasting economic recovery has taken hold, and many say they are personally worse off than they were two years ago, according to a Bloomberg poll.

"There seems to be something of a disconnect between what people are feeling and what people are doing," J. Ann Selzer, whose Des Moines, Iowa-based firm, Selzer & Co., conducted the poll, tells Bloomberg.

"While admitting a recovery has at least started, the public still feels crummy. They may not feel it has started for them."

Investments For A Falling US Dollar

Reader question:
With all the QE that is happenning the US$ looks to be under pressure over the intermediate and long-term. I’m Canadian and with the US$ potentially dropping further I am trying to look for opportunities that aren’t denominated in US $, in Canada and also in Europe. I was wondering if you had any analysis on TSX and/or european markets/stocks that you do or might do in the future?
Tricky question as I don’t like to predict how the financial markets will react to a big event such as QE3 as much as I prefer to react to trader’s reaction. It appears we’re in for a serious bout of inflation with precious metals rallying strongly, commodities popping, and the dollar getting crushed under it’s own weight.
If you’re looking for a pure anti dollar play then you may want to trade US Dollar Bearish Index Fund (UDN). I can’t say I officially believe the dollar is done but it definitely does not look good right now.

And then there’s GDX, which if commodities remain strong these will continue to outperform. The one problem I see with this weekly chart is that for as strong as gold and gold related stocks have been the RSI still hasn’t gotten above the 70 level and we’re are just now back to resistance after a vertical move higher.It’s unlikely that this is sustainable so a pause is likely here. How that pause shapes up will determine if it can move higher or if this move is a blip.

Finally there’s Central Fund of Canada (CEF) as a dollar down, Canadian up play. This is perhaps the strongest Continue reading “Investments For A Falling US Dollar” »

Time for Energy to Run Out of, Well, Energy?

With all of the turmoil in the Middle East one might naturally expect energy prices to be soaring at the moment.  But they are not.  If you followed seasonal trends in the financial markets (and I’m guessing that you don’t) then you would not be surprised (and I’m guessing that you are) that energy futures and energy stocks are falling sharply at the moment.  So what gives?  In a word, “seasonality”.

Two Unfavorable Periods for Energy Stocks
For our purposes we will use Fidelity Select Energy Services (ticker FSESX) as a proxy for energy stocks and will look at two seasonally “unfavorable” periods:
-The first seasonally unfavorable period extends from the close of September Trading Day #10 (in this case, September 17, 2012) through the close of October Trading Day #6 (October 8, 2012).
-The second seasonally unfavorable period extends from the close of November Trading Day #2 (in this case, November 2, 2012) through the close of November Trading Day #14 (November 20, 2012).
The performance of FSESX during these two periods since 1988 appears in Figure 1
Figure 1 – FSESX % +/- during Seasonally Unfavorable Periods
For the September Trading Day 10 through October Trading Day 6 period:  (more)

Warning: John Hussman’s Model Shows The Worst Short Term S&P Risk-Reward In A Century

Andy Hagans: As last week’s QE3 announcement juiced equities, valuations began to look stretched according to some long-term metrics (such as the Shiller PE, which approached 24). The Bulls certainly proved to be in the majority as the market’s upward move was substantial, but as gold prices surged after the QE3 announcement as well, it was clear that some investors were growing increasingly wary of inflation and general market frothiness.
Enter John Hussman. Never one prone to irrational exuberance, Mr. Hussman’s proprietary model generated crash-warnings in the years 2000 and again in 2007. Then, as now, the model incorporates decades of market data, as well as leading economic indicators, technical indicators and a variety of valuation measures. Some have criticized Mr. Hussman for not being sufficiently bullish in early 2009, though it must be said that his primary objective in trying to outperform in a complete market cycle is the avoidance of large drawdowns, at which objective he is historically adept. And his weekly market comment published today is rather dire.
As of Friday, our estimates of prospective return/risk for the S&P 500 have dropped to the single lowest point we’ve observed in a century of data. There is no way to view this as something other than a warning, but it’s also a warning that I don’t want to overstate. This is an extreme data point, but there has been no abrupt change; no sudden event; no major catalyst. We are no more defensive today than we were a week ago, because conditions have been in the most negative 0.5% of the data for months. This is just the most negative return/risk estimate we’ve seen. It is what it is.
Alright, so the technical data and long term valuation data doesn’t look good right now. But even a generally expensive market, with a Shiller PE in the 23 to 24 range, has seen valuations much more stretched than they are at present, implying prospective long term returns are not at a century-long trough. But Mr. Hussman’s model isn’t based purely on valuations and he stresses the intermediate time horizon of his model’s prediction [for more economic news and analysis subscribe to our free newsletter].
Since we estimate prospective return/risk on a blended horizon of 2-weeks to 18 months, we are not making a statement about the very long-term, but only about intermediate-term horizons (prospective long-term returns have certainly been worse at some points, such as 2000). As always, our estimates represent the average historical outcome that is associated with a given set of conditions, and they don’t ensure that any particular instance will match that average. So while present conditions have been followed by extraordinarily poor market outcomes on average, there’s no assurance that this instance can’t diverge from typical outcomes. Investors should ignore my concerns here if they believe that the proper way to invest is to bet that this time is different.
Calling a market top is difficult to impossible, and it should be stressed that Mr. Hussman is not calling a market top here, but rather his model is predicting a poor range of outcomes, probability wise, for the market in the intermediate term. He generally advises against knee-jerk activity by long term buy-and-hold investors who have been successful with their discipline in the past. But it must be said, current valuations imply it may be a good time to take some gains. And in light of QE3, $1,700 ounces of gold don’t seem nearly as expensive as they did several months ago. Market weeks such as this one are generally poor ones to overhaul one’s investment strategy, but they are great times to review strategy, make tactical adjustments, and re-balance if necessary.

Gold Has Completed The 'Golden Cross'

Gold edged down today due to dollar strength and profit taking as speculators and some investors booked profits on 16% price gains from this year’s low.

Gold continues to see smart money diversification as central banks from the ECB and the Fed to the BOJ have all announced ‘stimulus’ or money debasement measures which has led investors to seek gold as an inflation hedge.

All eyes will be on China as perhaps the next to announce action after today’s data showed further contraction in its manufacturing sector for the 11th consecutive month. (more)

Precious Metals Now Bullish (Very LARGE Moves AHEAD)