Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Top commodities trader: Little-known pattern says copper has made a significant bottom

Copper has a history with the compound fulcrum pattern

All chartists know about the H&S pattern, triangles, rectangles, trendlines, wedges, etc. But, what about the compound fulcrum? This is a rare pattern originally used with point and figure chartists.

Copper has a history with this pattern. In the 1970s Copper formed the pattern, as shown by the P&F chart I was keeping at the time (yes, I used to keep charts by hand). Copper eventually went to $1.40 from this pattern.

The daily Copper chart is completing an 15-week compound fulcrum, pending a decisive close above the early July high.

Rob McEwen: Gold Should Be in Your Portfolio and It’s Going to $5,000

In an upbeat pesentation at the Denver Gold Forum, Rob McEwen forecast that gold is going to $5,000, while setting out the path forwards for the company which now bears his name – McEwen Mining.

by Lawrence Williams
Mine Web

DENVER (MINEWEB) – This year’s Denver Gold Forum kicked off yesterday morning and one of the early speakers was Rob McEwen of McEwen Mining. He has a great name in the industry due to his long term stewardship of Goldcorp, which was largely responsible for building the gold mining major to the strong position it holds today. Nowadays he runs McEwen Mining – a U.S. headquartered and quoted developing gold producer for which he has the avowed intent of bringing into the S&P 500 by 2015 – and with one gold/silver mine in production, a second just starting up with its first gold pour expected in a matter of weeks, a third in permitting and a very significant copper/gold/silver project at the exploration stage he may be well on his way to achieving this aim.

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5 Dividend Stocks to Ride Into Retirement These names have cash, cash flow and lots of room to hike payouts

For investors trying to plot a long-term strategy, it’s critical to understand the power and significance of dividends, and to spot those companies that provide a virtually unending stream of payouts.

Markets go up and go down, but finding those long-term dividend payers that can get you through the tough times with steady income and just as important, the promise of continued increases to that steady income, is reassuring and, well, profitable!

But don’t go around getting confused between companies that steadily raise dividends but might be in difficult businesses that might squeeze your income down the road. As an example, let’s take Walgreen (NYSE:WAG), a tried-and-true dividend payer that has made it onto InvestorPlace‘s list of Dependable Dividend Stocks.

In June, the venerable pharmacy company raised is annual dividend by 22.20% to $1.10 per share, and its 10-year dividend growth rate has been 18.90% per year. Furthermore, Walgreen has raised its distribution for 37 consecutive years. (more)

Alasdair Macleod – Germany To Leave Euro… Remaining Dogs To Pick at the Carcass / September 11, 2012

Alasdair Macleod, our man on the ground in the UK joined us today for an interesting discussion of how the Euro gets saved, although saved may be too strong a statement. Germany can exit the Euro, which would leave the weaker countries free to remain and inflate to their hearts’ desire. While the newly minted German currency, perhaps the Deutschmark 2 would get stronger, the diminshed Euro would get weaker, at least in theory. This avoids the need to eject countries such as Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain and it allows them to keep on the Keynesian socialist path they’ve set for themselves. Can it it work, perhaps for a while, but in the end sound money is the only way out.

Click Here to Listen to the Audio

Mosaic Co (NYSE: MOS)

The Mosaic Company produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients for the agriculture industry worldwide. The company also offers phosphate-based animal feed ingredients; and produces and sells potash for use as fertilizers and animal feed ingredients, as well as for use in industrial applications. Its potash products are also used for de-icing and as a water softener regenerant. The Mosaic Company provides its products to wholesale distributors, retail chains, cooperatives, independent retailers, and national accounts through a network of sales offices, crop nutrient blending and bagging facilities, port terminals, and warehouse distribution facilities. The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Plymouth, Minnesota. The Mosaic Company is subsidiary of Cargill, Incorporated.

To analyze Mosiac's stock for potential trading opportunities, please take a look at the 1-year chart of MOS (The Mosiac Company) below with my added notations:

1-year chart of MOS (The Mosiac Company)

For MOS, the $60 level (blue) was a major resistance from November up until just last month. After moving sideways during most of that time, the stock has not only made its way back up to the $60 resistance, but it also broke through it last week.

A Look at Gasoline Term Structure And the 3:2:1 Crack Spread

As consumers regain their senses from the shock of record-high Labor Day gasoline prices, we should examine the driving factors in the gasoline market and search for trade opportunities. Several factors contributed to the high prices we have experienced this summer, chief among them is a tight supply. The attached graph from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that we are close to the bottom of the five year average in gasoline stocks:

Much of this tightness can be attributed to high demand coupled with low supply. Hurricane Isaac forced the shutdown of oil rigs and refineries throughout the gulf coast, limiting supply. A fire at Venezuela's Amuay refinery further constricted refinery capacity and lowered available world-wide stocks. However, with the Amuay fire under control and Hurricane Isaac over, these refineries are now coming back online and should resume output soon. (more)

Market Is Expecting $850 Billion NEW Fiat Printing (QE)

from Zero Hedge:

Last week we discussed what the expectations were for Draghi’s OMT – approximately EUR250bn – which coincidentally provided cover for the rest of the year (conditionally) for the entire new issuance of the European Union. Based on EURUSD’s recent exuberance – something we saw ahead of QE1 and QE2 – the market is now more than primed for some serious USD debasement. The current EURUSD of 1.2850 implies a Fed-to-ECB balance sheet ratio around 1.11x. If we assume the ECB wil not have to fire its conditional bazooka (of which is priced in 100% likelihood of EUR250bn), then the Fed is expected to conjure a monetization scheme of around USD580bnanything less would be a disappointment to the market. However, if we assume the ECB will be doing it’s bond-buying monetization thing – as per the equity market’s expectations – then the Fed will need to come to the table with a bag of swag around USD850bn in order to debase the USD just enough to regain some hope. It seems like the market has priced in a great deal of monetary policy exuberance – especially considering how ‘confident’ consumers appear to be.

Read More @ Zero Hedge