Monday, July 30, 2012

Canadian home prices to tumble 25%: report

TORONTO - If the Canadian real estate market continues to cool, house prices could see substantial declines next year and could fall by as much as 25 per cent over the long term, according to an economics report released Wednesday.

Though some economists have suggested that a tepid slowdown so far in the market suggests it is headed for a "soft landing," Capital Economics economist David Madani said he continues to believe that a more drastic drop is on its way.

"We think a housing correction over the longer-term is inevitable and still stand by our earlier view of house prices declining by 25 per cent," he said in the report.

Canada's real estate market is showing signs of cooling off following a post-recession boom sparked by a move to ultra-low interest rates. Both national home sales and the average home price were down year-over-year last month, indicators that the national market could be slowing. (more)

STOCK CRASH ALERT: Strange Indicator Spells Doom

“The charts look terrible,” eccentric technician Arch Crawford told GoldSeek Radio host Chris Waltzec on Tuesday.

But the unusual methods of planetary alignments and astronomical technical readings which Crawford utilizes to make his predictions should not be scoffed as the work of a lunatic. His successful 25-plus-year track record and large subscriber base speak for themselves.

“There have been five-year periods along the way when Crawford’s timing was at or near the top,” according to Forbes Newsletter Watch, 2002.

The prestigious Hulbert Financial Digest ranked Arch Crawford’s Crawford Perspectives no. 1 for Stock Market Timing for the period October 1 2007 through October 31, 2009. In addition, his researching into correlating market action with astronomical cycles and sun activity, Crawford has achieved fame for ranking at the top of his peers for the years 1987, 1994 and 2008. He ranked no. 2 for 2002.

Aside from a ‘normal’ year during 1994, Crawford has achieved the best of the best during years of severe market turmoil and vicious declines, suggesting that maybe stock investors should pay very close attention to his latest call. (more)

An Absolutely Stunning Development In The Silver Market / July 28, 2012

Today King World News is reporting on an absolutely stunning development, this time in the silver market. Acclaimed commodity trader Dan Norcini told KWN that in the silver market, “… the hedge fund outright short position is the largest position that I’ve got on my records going back to the beginning of 2007. We’re talking about a five and a half year period.”

Norcini also noted there would be a huge move in silver, “if they (hedge funds shorts) get caught on the wrong side of that market … because all of those shorts are going to head to the exits at the same time.”

The acclaimed trader also discussed hegde fund problems in the gold market, but first, Bill Haynes, President of CMI Gold & Silver, had this to say about QE: “Eric, it’s guaranteed, it’s just a question of when. Probably within a few weeks. Subastian Mallaby, a contributing editor to the Financial Times and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, in Wednesday’s Financial Times, chided Bernanke and the Fed for not showing some audacity, some aggressiveness in attacking the problem of an economy that will not get going.”


Hathaway – We Are About To See $100+ Up Days In Gold

from KingWorldNews:

Today four-decade veteran John Hathaway shocked King World News by predicting that we are about to start seeing $100+ up-days in gold. The prolific manager of the Tocqueville Gold Fund also stated that the Fed is close to acting and they are most likely going to do something, “… on a very big scale.” He warned, “… there is nothing worse than having an activist Fed which is ineffectual. That would just destroy confidence.”

Here is what Hathaway had to say: “Hilsenranth, who everybody knows by now is basically a mouthpiece for the Fed, he went quite extensively into what the Fed is thinking about doing, including a round of quantitative easing, putting nominal interest rates to negative levels, and possibly cutting the interest rate on free reserves.”

John Hathaway continues @

U.S. Drought Disaster Depression Agricultural Commodities Crops Report

by: Richard Mills, The Market Oracle:

Because of the worst drought since 1988 the U.S. Department of Agriculture declared a federal disaster area in almost one-third of all the counties in the United States – more than 1,300 counties covering 29 states, the largest disaster declaration ever made by the USDA. Only in the 1930s and 1950s has a drought covered more land.

The United States Drought Monitor shows 88 percent of corn, and 87 percent of soybean crops are in drought-stricken regions. The map above shows the counties affected.

“We just had a crop report today, which indicated a significant reduction in corn production as well as bean production, lower forecast for wheat, soybean, soybean oil, soybean meal, and corn, lower forecast for milk, beef, pork, broilers, and turkey. And it’s obvious that weather is having an impact on the estimates of crops. Despite the fact that we have more acreage planted this year, we still are looking at significant reductions, and despite the fact that we may even with the corn estimates, as they have been reduced, would still have the third largest crop of corn in our history, nearly 13 billion bushels, and a very large soybean crop. We need to be cognizant of the fact that drought and weather conditions have really impacted and affected producers around the country.” Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack

Read More @

Challenging the Deflation Godfather, Robert Prechter Interview Jul 12 2012

US Weekly Economic Calendar

time (et) report period Actual forecast previous
None scheduled
8:30 am Personal income June 0.4%` 0.2%
8:30 am Consumer spending June 0.1% 0.0%
8:30 am Core PCE price index June 0.2% 0.1%
8:30 am Employment cost index June 0.5% 0.4%
9 am Case-Shiller home prices May -- 1.3% nsa
9:45 am Chicago PMI July 52.0% 52.9%
10 am Consumer confidence index July 61.5 62.0
8:15 am ADP employment July -- 176,000
8:58 am Markit PMI July -- 52.5
10 am ISM July
50.5% 49.7%
10 am Construction spending June 0.4% 0.9%
2:15 pm FOMC announcement
TBA Motor vehicle sales July 14.0 mln 14.1 mln
THURSDAY, aug. 2
8:30 am Weekly jobless claims 7-28 370,000 350,000
10 am Factory orders June 0.3% 0.7%
FRIDAY, aug. 3
8:30 am Nonfarm payrolls July
110,000 80,000
8:30 am Unemployment rate July 8.2% 8.2%
10 am ISM nonmanufacturing July 52.9% 52.1%