Friday, April 27, 2012

22 Red Flags That Indicate That Very Serious Doom Is Coming For Global Financial Markets

From the Economic Collapse / April 24, 2012
If you enjoy watching financial doom, then you are quite likely to really enjoy the rest of 2012. Right now, red flags are popping up all over the place. Corporate insiders are selling off stock like there is no tomorrow, major economies all over Europe continue to implode, the IMF is warning that the eurozone could actually break up and there are signs of trouble at major banks all over the planet. Unfortunately, it looks like the period of relative stability that global financial markets have been enjoying is about to come to an end. A whole host of problems that have been festering just below the surface are starting to manifest, and we are beginning to see the ingredients for a “perfect storm” start to come together. The greatest global debt bubble in human history is showing signs that it is getting ready to burst, and when that happens the consequences are going to be absolutely horrific. Hopefully we still have at least a little bit more time before the global financial system implodes, but at this point it doesn’t look like anything is going to be able to stop the chaos that is on the horizon.
The following are 22 red flags that indicate that very serious doom is coming for global financial markets….

Interest Rates Have Nowhere To Go But Up

The Federal budget deficit will drive our financial future
Jim welcomes back Bud Conrad, Chief Economist at Casey Research. Bud sees large and growing demands for credit from the federal government, which will require the Fed to continue to create a large and growing supply. This will lead to debasement of the dollar, higher inflation, and higher interest rates, all long-term negatives for the US economy. As government debt grows, the interest to be paid grows as well. If rates rise, the scenario becomes much worse.
As well as being chief economist for Casey Research, Bud is also author of the book Profiting from the World's Economic Crisis. Bud holds a Bachelor of Engineering degree from Yale and an MBA from Harvard. He has held positions with IBM, CDC, Amdahl, and Tandem. Currently, he serves as a local board member of the National Association of Business Economics and teaches graduate courses in investing at Golden Gate University. Bud, a futures investor for 25 years and a full-time investor for a decade, is also a regular lecturer for American Association of Individual Investors. In addition, he produces original analysis for Casey Research, including unique charts and research on the economy and investment markets. Bud's commentary may be found in The Casey Report every month.

click here for audio

Marc Faber on the Cycles of Gloom, Boom and Doom

Marc Faber : 'Over the last few months, the market has acted very badly. There are less new hires, the volume has dried out, insider sales have picked up, and this is the beginning of a downward trend. We may easily have a correction of 10-20% here. Most stocks are already down 10% from their highs. Markets have more than doubled from the lows in 2009. The global economy has actually deteriorated. 'It has optically improved because of huge government spending but in principle we are in a worse position today than we were in 2008 and 2009. There will be more money printing and if your are hyper bearish, maybe you are better off in equities than you are in government bonds and cash. I also advocate to own some gold'.

What Next For Canadian Real Estate?

For the past half-century, real estate itself has amounted to an average of 5.8% of the national economy. Today it’s nicely above 7%. So what?
So, every time the 7% mark has been breached, the housing market’s taken a dive two or three years later. There is no reason to suggest this time it’s different, says finance professor and economist George Athanassakos. Expect a “severe correction.”
He even has a handy chart. Copy, paste and email it to your 25-year-old daughter about to buy her first condo with 5% down and daddy’s co-signature. This could save Christmas dinner next year:

In fact the Canadian housing market, one of the few in the western world still supported by endorphins and hormones, is gaining the attention of a few academics who think we’re, well, nuts. Like Neville Bennett, of Canterbury University in New Zealand, where they’ve had a bubble of their own. Cheap rates, lax lending standards and $85 billion in mortgages to people with dodgy credit spell disaster, he suggests:  (more)

Student Loan Debt Slaves In Perpetuity – A True Story Of “Bankruptcy Hell”

From Zero Hedge / By Tyler Durden / April 26, 2012
The numeric implications as well as the magnitude of the student loan bubble have been discussed extensively before. Yet just like most people’s eyes gloss over when they hear billions, trillions or quadrillions, so seeing the exponential chart of Federal Student debt merely brings up memories of a math lesson from high school, or at best, makes one think of statistics. And as we all know statistics are faceless, nameless and can never apply to anyone else. It is the individual case studies that have the most impact. Which is why we would like to introduce you to Devin and Sarah Stang – student loan debt slaves in perpetuity.
First, for those who are still unfamiliar with the brush strokes, here is the big picture, courtesy of AP:
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York estimates 37 million Americans have student loan debt, totaling $870 billion. The average balance is around $23,000 (though that partly reflects a relatively small number of very large balances; the median is $12,800). Only 39 percent are paying down balances. An estimated 5.4 million borrowers have at least one student loan account past due.
Roughly 85 percent of outstanding student loan debt is owed to the federal government. The remaining 15 percent that’s counted as private student debt is owed to various non-federal lenders, ranging from banks to loan companies like Sallie Mae Corp. to non-profits and state-affiliated agencies (under the Durbin bill, loans from any government-funded entity still wouldn’t be dischargeable, only those from truly private lenders).
Generally, it’s these private loans that bring borrowers to the door of bankruptcy lawyers like Barrett. Private student loans often lack the protections of federal ones, and have rates that typically start higher and can shoot up. A recent survey of bankruptcy attorneys found 81 percent reporting more clients with student debt in recent years, and roughly half reporting a significant increase.

Chart of the Day - Tim Hortons (THI)

The "Chart of the Day" is Tim Hortons (THI), which showed up on Wednesday's Barchart "All-Time High" list. Tim Hortons on Wednesday posted a new all-time high of $55.42 and closed up 1.75%. TrendSpotter just turned Long again last Wednesday at $55.08. In recent news on the stock, company management on March 6 provided FY12 EPS guidance of $2.65-2.75 versus the consensus of $2.77. The company said it expects to open 100 stores in the U.S. in FY12 and 155-185 stores in Canada. Tim Hortons, with a market cap of $8.6 billion, is Canada's largest quick service restaurant chain and features coffee, fresh-baked goods, soups and sandwiches.