Thursday, April 5, 2012

Is it safe to start buying Gold Stocks yet?

One of the most common questions I field from my forecast and trading subscribers is can we buy Gold stocks yet? We have seen Gold consolidating and correcting following a 34 fibonacci month rally that I discussed last fall was going to top out around 1900 per ounce. This type of rally went from October of 2008 to August of 2011 and we saw Gold rally from $680 to $1900 per ounce during that time.

In order to work off the bullish sentiment that was at parabolic extremes, Gold is required to spend a reasonable amount of time in relation to the prior 34 month move to wash out the sentiment and create a strong pivot bottom. While this continues, the Gold stock index has taken it on the chin as money rotates out and into other hot areas like Technology and the Internet 2.0 social media boom. To wit, the GDX ETF peaked out last fall around 67 and current trades under 47 as of this writing.

However, there may be a silver lining developing in those dark mining stock clouds very soon. It does appear that we are in the 5th and final wave of this pessimistic decline in Gold stocks per my GDX ETF chart below. A typical bottoming pattern ends after 5 clear waves have taken place, and in this case I have targets between $43-$47 per GDX share for a likely pivot low in Gold stocks. Contrarian investors may do well to begin picking the better names in the sector and “scaling in” over the next short period of time.

Gold itself has recently corrected from 1793 per ounce to 1620 in the last several weeks. This has spooked the crowd out of Gold and put further pressure on the Gold mining stocks as well. Should Gold hold the $1620’s area and rebound past $1691 you will see the Gold stocks take off just ahead of that and from these 43-46 levels on the GDX ETF provide very strong returns to investors with the iron stomachs.

The best way to make money long term in the market and to grow your capital is to develop a method where you can define your risk levels within reason near the apex of a downside move, and then scale into that final apex and catch the rally on the upside. This is difficult to do but at my ATP service we have developed a strong methodology that takes advantage of “herd behavioral characteristics” and takes advantage of typical panic selling and panic buying to do just the opposite. We have not yet bought into the Gold Stock sector but I assume fairly soon we will be dipping our toes in the water while others have all rushed out of the sector right near the apex lows.

David talks live about MRM method
You can also download the mp3 audio file for this interview on your computer by clicking here WITH A RIGHT BUTTON CLICK and selecting SAVE FILE AS from the drop down menu.

Global Collapse Explained

There’s No Painless Way Out

from Zero Hedge :

Uncle Sam’s bills of almost $4tn per year relative to his income of just over $2tn means that he does what most American’s do – he borrows money – and it is this simple fact that underpins the reasoning that there is no painless way out of the mountain of debt that we have amassed over the last few decades. While none of this is new, the straightforward nature of this video’s message makes it hard to argue, from anything other than an ivory tower, that this supposed self-sustaining print-and/or-borrow-fest can go on forever. Paying off your mortgage with your credit card remains the clearest analogy of what is occurring and while the Mutually Assured Destruction case is made again and again for why the analogous credit-card-providers will never halt our limit, it seems increasingly clear that the fiat money fiasco has switched regimes to chaos rather than the apparent nominal calmness of the great moderation.

Read More @

Americans brace for next foreclosure wave

Half a decade into the deepest U.S. housing crisis since the 1930s, many Americans are hoping the crisis is finally nearing its end. House sales are picking up across most of the country, the plunge in prices is slowing and attempts by lenders to claim back properties from struggling borrowers dropped by more than a third in 2011, hitting a four-year low.

But a painful part two of the slump looks set to unfold: Many more U.S. homeowners face the prospect of losing their homes this year as banks pick up the pace of foreclosures.

"We are right back where we were two years ago. I would put money on 2012 being a bigger year for foreclosures than 2010," said Mark Seifert, executive director of Empowering & Strengthening Ohio's People (ESOP), a counseling group with 10 offices in Ohio.

"Last year was an anomaly, and not in a good way," he said.

In 2011, the "robo-signing" scandal, in which foreclosure documents were signed without properly reviewing individual cases, prompted banks to hold back on new foreclosures pending a settlement. (more)

McAlvany Weekly Commentary

Inflation? Deflation? Or Government Theft! Interview with Russell Napier

About This Week’s Show:
-Chinese rebalancing hurts U.S. treasury purchases
-Governments will fund themselves by force
-Stocks & Bonds both overvalued (like in 1968)

About the Guest: Russell Napier is an Edinburgh-based consultant for CLSA Asia Pacific Markets, who writes about issues impacting the global equity markets. With more than two decades in the industry, Russell has contributed to the development and scope of CLSA’s equity research.

Peter Grandich–We Told You So-Gold and Silver Get Raided–04.Apr.2012

Last week Peter Grandich and I made the call that this week the precious metals markets would get hammered. We noticed that holiday weeks usually bring thinly traded markets, which are ripe for manipulation and elitist raids. No sooner did we post the interview from Thurs. 3/29, then wham! The precious metals markets are behaving like Paul Volcker was just appointed Chairman of the Fed. Don’t get us wrong, Bernanke is no Volcker, but this, like everything in life, is temporary…nothing has changed!

10 Secrets to Being a Millionaire

Yes, opportunity is knocking for American investors. Less than two weeks ago Spectrem Group of Chicago released its latest annual report of American millionaires. About 200,000 new millionaires were added last year, for a new total of 8.6 million.

True, that’s less than the 9.5 million at the 2006 peak, but it’s still great news along with the Dow industrial’s 994 point first-quarter rally of 8.1% first quarter ending last Friday, two clearly positive signs of a recovery.

In short, you can still become a millionaire. Here’s the secret: It’s all in your head, your attitude, your state of mind. If you want to retire a millionaire, you can. Here’s how: You control your mind.

A few decades in business, and years writing about behavioral economics and psychology have convinced me of this one simple truth: Becoming a millionaire really is all in your head. It has little to do with wealth-building techniques, tools and rules.

In fact, you could forget all the usual stuff: asset allocation, stock picking, savings plans, budgeting and so on. I know, that’s what the experts tell you to focus on. But if you’re not in the right state of mind, none of that matters.

Seriously, I’ve read the books: “The Millionaire Mind,” “Instant Millionaire,” “Automatic Millionaire,” “Millionaire Next Door,” “One-Minute Millionaire” and many more. Even wrote a couple, “The Millionaire Code” and “The Millionaire Meditation” and worked on Wall Street as an investment banker with Morgan Stanley.

But I keep coming back to this one simple fact: Becoming a millionaire really is all in your head. Period. No excuses. You decide to become a millionaire and it will happen — in a bear market, a bad economy or riding a bull.

So here are the 10 best tips I picked up over the decades, tips that’ll help you become one of America’s next millionaires:

1. Getting rich isn’t about money

Fidelity’s Peter Lynch often said, if you spend 15 minutes a year studying the economy, that’s 10 minutes too much. And when money guru Ric Edelman researched 5,000 millionaires for “Ordinary People, Extraordinary Wealth,” he discovered that millionaires spend an average of just 6 minutes a day on personal finance. They have better things to do.

2. Think different

Go inside “The Millionaire Mind” with author George Stanley: “They think differently from the crowd … it pays to be different.” Yes, it builds wealth. Go where there’s a unique opportunity that fits your unique talents. That’s “the central theme” of Stanley’s work: Don’t fit in, go your way.

3. Accentuate the positive

Most of us have read books like Napoleon Hill’s classic, “Success Through a Positive Mental Attitude.” That message hit home in “Fast Company” by a Special Forces instructor, a veteran of 26 years: “If you have a guy with all the survival training in the world who has a negative attitude and a guy who doesn’t have a clue but has a positive attitude, I guarantee you that the guy with a positive attitude is coming out of the woods alive. Simple as that.” As a Marine veteran, I know he’s on the money.

4. Quit doing what you hate

Many people live in quiet desperation, waiting for retirement, doing something they hate. Marcus Buckingham put it very simply in his winning book, “The One Thing You Need to Know”: “Figure out what you don’t like doing, then stop doing it.”

5. Do what you love

You’ve heard all the pep talks: Follow your bliss; do what you love, money will follow. But most of all, never forget Stanley’s bottom line: “If you are creative enough to select the ideal vocation, you can win, win big-time. The really brilliant millionaires are those who selected a vocation that they love.”

6. Find ‘the real you’

Working in a career that doesn’t fit right is exhausting and stressful. You’re less efficient, less productive and underperform. Get in sync with the real you. Get help from a career counselor, if necessary. Read books on personality types. In “The Millionaire Code” I identify 16 basic types to help future millionaires focus on their dreams. Buckingham’s “Now Discover Your Strengths” is another example. Find the real you, go for it and never turn back.

7. Invest in ‘You Inc.’

Tired of working for Corporate America? Become an entrepreneur. Create your own business. Read Kiyosaki’s “Rich Dad, Poor Dad” series. Browse through “EBay for Dummies.” Open a restaurant, dry cleaner or scrap-metal yard. Stanley’s lists of millionaires includes a lot of unexpected opportunities others missed. And remember, most millionaires work for themselves, pay less taxes and build equity in themselves.

8. Live with passion

Believe in something. Listen to the still small voice. What is it: Love, family, jazz, art, golf, writing, fishing, inventing, charity work? Whatever it is, it’s you. And it’s priceless. My mentor Joseph Campbell, the inspiration for George Lucas’ Star Wars, and author of “The Hero of a Thousand Faces,” tells us: “If you follow your bliss, you will always have your bliss, money or not. If you follow money, you may lose it, and you will have nothing.” Yes, even Campbell had a millionaire’s mind.

9. Live in the moment

Warren Buffett goes to work “tap-dancing.” He once told a group of University of Nebraska students: “I get up every day and have a chance to do what I love to do, every day. If you learn anything from me, this is the best advice I can give you.” Take it. We all live in the moment, that’s his, discover yours and live yours. Live every day to the fullest.

10. Make a difference

This one may be the real key to a being a successful millionaire, even before you have the money: We all have a daily pressures that demands we balance loved ones and family, the latest deal, client, customer and boss, our little world today and our future. Millionaires dream of making the world a better place, with visions of a better tomorrow for everyone. They love helping people, getting rich in spirit as well as in fact. I’ll bet you have a dream. Something that really satisfies you deep in your soul. Discover the real meaning of your life, go beyond yourself. You can get rich and make a difference too.

Remember, being a millionaire is all in your head. If you have the right attitude, if you feel it, if you believe you’re a millionaire, you’re already there, already rich. You have the mind of the millionaire. Money will follow. It really does work.

Sturm, Ruger & Co. has gained almost 80% since our initial recommendation

Sturm, Ruger & Co. (NYSE:RGR) — The Trade of the Day first recommended RGR on Oct. 11, at about $29. Since then, this U.S. firearms manufacturer has been able to avoid market slumps and has vaulted to a gain of almost 80%.

Earnings have grown from $1.42 in 2009 to $1.46 in 2010 and $2.08 in 2011. The company has topped earnings estimates for 11 of the past 12 quarters and has a dividend yield of 1.21%.

RGR attributes its success to an increase in the number of states with statutes allowing a license to carry. Additionally, demand has been driven by the expectation that the federal government will take action to restrain gun ownership, resulting in a rush to buy.

Technically the stock has advanced with a series of “step-ups,” which are characteristic of bull market trends. But recently RGR jumped on a “continuation gap,” which accelerated the trend and moved it away from its 50-day moving average — a jump that makes it susceptible to profit-taking.

Longer-term investors should protect their position by writing calls or buying puts. Traders should use further strength to nail down a profit.

Trade of the Day – Sturm, Ruger and Co. (NYSE:RGR)
Click to Enlarge

Chart of the Day - MasterCard (MA)

The "Chart of the Day" is MasterCard (MA), which showed up on Tuesday's Barchart "All Time High" list. MasterCard on Tuesday rallied to a new all-time high of $440.60 and closed up 1.38%. TrendSpotter has been Long since Feb 3 at $390.32. In recent news on the stock, Sterne Agee on March 5 reiterated its Buy rating on MasterCard and raised its target to $480 from $430. Deutsche Bank on Feb 24 reiterated its Buy rating on MasterCard and raised its target to $465 from $415. However, UBS on Feb 29 initiated coverage on MasterCard with a Neutral and a target of $438. MasterCard, with a market cap of $53 billion, is a leading payment processor.