Friday, October 12, 2012

This could be the most powerful "global sell signal" in a generation

I realize that I’ve been obnoxiously bullish throughout the summer (almost to a fault). But I won’t apologize for my sarcasm and belittling of the public perception on the market. Someone had to say it (see here, here, here, here and here). I just couldn’t find any reason to be out of stocks. All that fiscal cliff nonsense and Europe crap was just noise. Remember the media can’t sell advertisements if no one watches/reads. And no one likes to hear good things. Ever wonder why 90% of the 11 o’clock news is horrifying? The headlines need to scare the hell out of you. Otherwise you won’t turn it on, or buy the paper, or subscribe to the magazine, etc.
Price is the only thing in the market that will pay us. Nothing else. Why doesn’t matter. Why has never paid anyone. Ever. Literally, ever. The questions to ask are What and When. The rest is bullshit.
Now, I’m not in the ‘end of the world’ camp. Far from it. But my friend and excellent technician Richard Ross put out a note Friday that brought up some interesting points. (Click Charts to Embiggen)
Ross thinks that a Euro breakdown here could, “Generate the most powerful ‘Global Sell Signal’ of our generation” (speaking of scaring the hell out of people).
We still don’t know that the Euro will complete the potential head & shoulders top formation. But we do know that this currency is a majority component of the US Dollar Index. We also know that the Dollar and Stocks have been mostly negatively correlated for years. But can the correlation change? Sure. Can the Euro hold that support and make this conversation meaningless? Sure. Is it important to recognize the possibilities and potential consequences of a breakdown in the Euro? You betcha. And this is regardless of how high you think $AAPL goes or how great that drug might be for your biotech stock.  (more)

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