Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Did Today Hint at Long Term Direction for the Grains?

Very mixed markets today with corn and wheat closing lower and soybeans higher.  Soybeans ending the day up 7 cents doesn't look like much at face value, however a 25 cent rally off the lows is pretty impressive especially after violating support levels early.  Outside markets were also very heavy today coming from uncertainty over elections and an overall lack of confidence.  Crude oil at one point was down $3.00 a barrel but had taken back $1.20 by the close.  Equity and metals markets were also sharply lower.

The overall commodity liquidation today had the grains on the defensive early.  A half hour into the pit open it looked like corn and soybeans were going to break key support levels and turn the charts negative.  Both bounced back from support and soybeans posted the highest close since October 1st.  Better cash bids for soybeans sparked the rally and rumors of China buying fed it.
Overall corn is still in limbo here trading below resistance and above support.  Pricection in corn and what seems negative, but strength in soybeans seems to be preventing a sharp break like we saw in many other commodity markets.  Soybeans do look good on a chart and have potential for a breakout to the upside but this could prove to be a difficult task with fund liquidation everywhere.

With high volatility in a market, option strategies may be a good tool for hedgers and specs alike.
December Corn Daily chart:

November Soybeans Daily chart:  (more)

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