Friday, June 15, 2012

Canadian housing prices reach apex and set for deep fall

Being inside a bubble creates an interesting atmosphere. To a certain degree logical voices from outside of the bubble need to speak up to recognize what is rather obvious yet lost for many within the bubble. There is no bigger housing bubble than the one currently happening in Canadian real estate. Not only is the bubble raging it has far surpassed what the US housing bubble reached at its pinnacle. Those in the housing bubble of course are intoxicated by the elixir of easy money. After all, simply sitting in your condo and having it go up $50,000 or $100,000 in a year for not lifting a finger sounds like a good investment. This happened all across the US from condo happy Miami, Boston, and Chicago to housing crazy California and Nevada. Yet the echoes are the same when one points this out. It is truly different here. The only true thing is that human psychology driven by unfettered greed creates bubbles over and over like the sun rising. Taking a look at the Canadian housing market, you realize that not only is a nationwide bubble in full force but some cities like Vancouver and Toronto are extraordinarily overpriced.

Comparing the Canadian and US Housing Markets

While the US housing market peaked in 2006 (six years ago and prices are now hitting lost decade territory) Canadian home values are now at their apex:

US vs canadian housing prices

Source: SoberLook, Bloomberg

The source of this bubble is hot money from foreign markets and local buyers being caught up in the frenzy. Yet as we are now witnessing in this globally connected system, a bubble bursting in one market (i.e., Spain) will have ramifications all across the world. So paying attention to the Canadian housing bubble is obviously important for those in Canada but very important for people here in the US. (more)

No comments:

Post a Comment