Friday, April 20, 2012

Natgas sinks to 10-year low ahead of storage data

Natural gas futures slid to a fresh 10-year spot chart low by early Thursday amid expectations for another injection into already record-high inventories.

In addition, mild spring weather in much of the nation curbed any late-season heating or early cooling demand, pressuring prices to below the key $2 per million British thermal level in recent days.

Some traders said the market was oversold and due for bounce after losing 9 percent this month, but others expected few gains in the near term until hotter weather kicks up air conditioning loads.

Front-month May natural gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange were at $1.936 per mmBtu, down 1.5 cents, after sliding to $1.932, the lowest price for a front month since January 2002.

RECORD INVENTORIES

U.S. Energy Information Administration data last week showed total gas inventories rose to 2.487 trillion cubic feet, remaining at record highs for this time of year and standing nearly 56 percent above last year and about 59 percent above the five-year average level.

(Storage graphic: http://link.reuters.com/mup44s )

Most traders and analysts expect stocks to show a build of about 25 bcf when data is released today at about 10:30 a.m. EDT, a Reuters poll showed. Stocks gained an adjusted 42 bcf during the same week last year and on average over the past five years have risen 26 bcf that week.

If weekly stock builds through October match the five-year average pace, inventories would top out at 4.595 tcf, or about 12 percent above peak estimated capacity of about 4.1 tcf.

That could sink prices later in the injection season if storage caverns fill up and force more gas into a well-supplied market.

PRODUCTION ALSO NEAR RECORD HIGHS

The EIA's short-term energy outlook last week also offered little hope for bulls, with the agency sharply raising its estimate for marketed gas production this year for a third straight month.

EIA said it expects 2012 gas output to climb by 3 bcf per day, or 4.5 percent, to a record 69.22 bcfd, up from its March outlook that had output this year at 67.91 bcf daily.

EIA also forecast a significant 2.8 bcf per day, or 4.3 percent, gain in consumption this year, primarily due to more utilities switching from pricier coal to cheaper gas, but it was not expected to be enough to tighten an over supplied gas market.

Production growth is expected to slow this year as low prices hit plans for new drilling, but the sharp decline in the Baker Hughes gas rig count -- down a third since peaking at 936 in October -- has not yet reduced output partly due to increased drilling efficiency.

The gas-directed rig count has fallen in 13 of the last 14 weeks, sinking on Friday to its lowest level in 10 years, but rising output from shale has kept production on an upward track.

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