Wednesday, April 25, 2012

How to Get Some of the Highest Yields in the World for as Little Risk as Possible

Here's an old Wall Street [1] saying that investors should "Sell in May and go away." While there's no identifiable rationale to explain why that should be good advice, there is an element of empirical truth. A study by Plexus Asset management shows that since 1950 the returns for the S&P 500 in the months of November through May were 8.1%, compared with just 2.4% for the period from May through October. [James Brumley, one of our talented analysts, recently warned investors about putting too much stock in this, though. Go here to read his take [2].]
The MSCI World Index, a popular index [3] of global stock market [4] performance, shows a similar seasonal pattern. In fact, returns for the MSCI World Index in the months of May through October over the same post-1950 era are negative. The old adage to sell in May has gained even more prominence over the past two years, as stocks have endured gut-wrenching corrections in the summers of 2010 and 2011, only to enjoy powerful year-end and New Year rallies.
I'd never recommend managing your portfolio using simplistic seasonal rules, but it's only prudent for investors to contemplate the potential for at least a short-term correction [5] in global equity markets.  (more)

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