Barron’s: Bond Data Show Interest Rates Poised to Rise

The chart pattern for 30-year Treasury bonds indicates interest rates may well be headed higher, according to Barron’s.

“The debate over the lasting effects of QE2, the second round of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve, rages on,” Michael Kahn writes in the publication.

“Some argue that the lack of core inflation and the desire for the Fed to hold short-term rates low for the foreseeable future will keep longer rates in check. Others see a weak U.S. dollar and the flood of money into the system as catalysts for higher prices of necessities like food and energy.”

Treasury price charts give credence to the latter view, he says. The 30-year bond yield hit a 10-month high of 4.78 percent in February and then slipped back into what technical analysts call a trend channel for about two months.

Ben Bernanke (Getty photo)

But now rates are heading higher again, with the 30-year yield closing Friday at 4.64 percent.

The key point now is 4.85 percent, Kahn writes. “This level traces back several years and is an important ceiling.” So if that ceiling is breached, it could be off to the races for interest rates.

Others see rates rising too.

“The Fed’s acknowledging increasing inflation expectations,” Priya Misra, head bond strategist for Bank of America Merrill Lynch, tells Bloomberg. “That’s putting more pressure on yields. Momentum is going to be for higher rates."