Tuesday, January 18, 2011

How Problematic Is Oil`s Rise?

As oil prices approach $100 a barrel, a level the market hasn't seen in over two years, there is growing concern that it could hamper the global economic recovery.

Analysts said the UK and Europe's weakest economies were most at risk from a surge in crude oil to near $100 a barrel.

The higher costs of everything from gasoline to heating oil, jet fuel and the myriad of products that have an oil component is a tax on growth at a time when prospects for recovery in these countries are so fragile.

While few analysts see oil returning to its high of $147 hit in 2008 because of oil producers' excess capacity, crude prices do represent a threat to the global economy and particularly to Europe at levels even well below that.

"Whenever the size of the energy sector in the global economy reached 9 percent, we went into a major crisis," said Sabine Schels, a commodity analyst at Merrill Lynch.

"It was in the 1980s and it was the same in 2008. Right now we are at about 7.8 percent and if you go above $100 per barrel to $120 per barrel, you get to that 9 percent level."

Rising oil prices may increase pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates to offset already high inflation, some economists said.

The weakness of the euro due to the euro zone's debt crisis will also make the higher oil price more difficult to swallow in weak economies such as Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain. (more)

No comments:

Post a Comment