Saturday, December 18, 2010

Lindsey Williams: Crude Oil Price Targeted for $150-200 per Barrel

During his hour-long radio interview on the Alex Jones show today, broadcast over, longtime Alaska oil reserves expert Lindsey Williams told Alex that he’d learned recently from two of this longtime friends, both retired top executives of major oil producers, that the price of crude oil, now rising again, is slated to move to $150-200 per barrel soon. According to Williams, the equivalent price of gasoline at the pump should range then between $4-5 per gallon. In fact, the price for drivers in California is about four dollars already, he said.

Williams also told Alex that one of the execs had said him that the Euro is slated for collapse soon, although at an unspecified time. Once this happens, the dollar will collapse within the next two to three weeks, wiping out tens of millions of Americans financially, presumably within a few days or a few weeks.

Lindsey emphasized once again, as he has done on all his interviews with Alex over the years, that he knows these executives very well and trusts their information because these predictions are always on target and on time. For this reason he implored Alex’s listeners to get prepared now for collapse of dollar and do whatever will be necessary for to survive and then live through this debacle. (more)

The Economist - 18th December-31st December 2010

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If You're a Day Trader, You Could Be Making a Big Mistake

For investors, "buy and hold" has always been considered the sensible way to invest in the market. The idea -- put your money into stocks, index funds or mutual funds and over the years, you will earn an average of about 8%.

But whacky market gyrations over the past few years have led many investors to either give up on investing altogether -- or become active traders, hoping to generate profits from the volatility. Generally speaking, these day traders are investors who trade frequently every day and believe that by timing the market just right, they will generate impressive returns.

But James Altucher, managing director of Formula Capital, says that day trading is a mistake. A former day trader himself, Altucher explains that today, day trading is just too difficult. In this short video, Altucher explains the pitfalls of day trading -- not just to your portfolio, but also to your health. (more)

Ari Kiev – The 10 Cardinal Rules Of Trading

The 10 cardinal rules of trading from Ari Kiev’s book: ‘Trading To Win – The Psychology of Mastering the Markets’

The Ten Cardinal Rules

1. Learn to function in a tense, unstructured, and unpredictable environment.
2. Be an independent thinker versus a conventional thinker.
3. Work out a way to handle your emotions and maintain objectivity.
4. Don’t rely on hope and fear in the conventional sense.
5. Work continuously to improve yourself, giving importance to self-examination and recognizing that your personality and way of responding to events are a critical part of the game. This requires continuous coaching.
6. Modify your normal responses to certain events.
7. Be willing to face problems, understand them, and recognize that they are in some way related to your behavior.
8. Know when problems can be resolved and then apply methods to solve them. That may mean giving up some control in order to gain a different control. It may mean changes in your personality, learning self-reliance, or giving up independence and ego to become part of a trading team.
9. Understand the larger framework in which trading occurs—how the complexity of the marketplace and your personality both must be taken into account in order to develop the mastery of trading.
10. Develop the right mind-set for trading—a willingness to commit to the kinds of changes in personal habits and beliefs that will drastically alter your life. To do this requires a willingness to surrender to the forces of the game. In order to be able to play at a maximum level, you have to let go of your ego and your need to have things your way.

US To End 2010 With $13.9 Trillion In Debt, Total Debt Incurred Since Great Financial Crash: $4.4 Trillion

Now that all recent bond auctions have settled, and with no further bond auctions scheduled until the rest of the year, we can look at the final tally of US total debt: the number - $13,879,785,000,000. This represents a $1.568 trillion increase in total US debt held by the public for 2010, and $4.388 trillion since the collapse of Lehman. This is in essence the cost to US taxpayers to keep the financial system solvent, as the US has become the biggest marginal leveraging actor in the world, with everyone else, notably US consumers, and Europe, doing all they can to strip as much debt as they possible can. Of course, since this money does not have to be repaid any time soon, or ever, nobody seems to mind, especially not the politicians in Washington. As we have said before, and pro forma for the Obama tax deal, we expect total debt issuance in 2011 to accelerate once again, and to hit just under $2 trillion, putting total US debt at the end of next year at around $16 trillion. We also fully expect the Fed to monetize the bulk of that issuance. We can't wait to hear the positive spin on this one.

How to read the COT Report and Price Manipulation

The COT reports which we look at each week provide a breakdown of each Tuesday's open interest for markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions equal to or above the reporting levels established by the CFTC. The weekly reports for Futures-and-Options-Combined Commitments of Traders are released every Friday at 3:30 p.m. Eastern time. The short report shows open interest separately by reportable and Non-reportable positions. For reportable positions, additional data is provided for commercial and non-commercial holdings, spreading, changes from the previous report.

Due to a request from a subscriber, we thought it appropriate to look at the COT report issued weekly by the CFTC so you can better see the action there. Before looking at these statements a look at the titles used in the report should be understood.

Futures and Options Combined

What does this title mean? A future is a standardized contract traded through regulated exchanges where an investor buys or sells a contract at a specified price for a specific date in the future. The price includes the interest charge due to the seller by the buyer from the date of the contract to the due date. An option is the ‘right to buy or sell’ a contract at a fixed date in the future at a specific [strike] price. The difference is that a futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell, whereas an option gives the holder the right to buy or sell. An option holder can decide not to take up that right and will only lose the cost of buying the option. His loss is therefore definable at the start of his investment

, while the potential profit has not limit to it. A futures contract is usually leveraged [a loan provided] up to 90% of the contract. However, with the owner liable to top up his ‘margin’ to maintain this 10% his potential losses can rise far higher than his investment. A ‘long’ [buying] contract limits its loss to the full price of the item, whereas the ‘short’ [selling] contract has no limit except the height that the price of the item can rise to. (more)


Economy and Financial System Face Eventual Great Collapse

Government and Fed Actions Have Narrowed Timing for
Hyperinflationary Great Depression to Next Five Years

High Risk of Ultimate Dollar Crisis Unfolding in Year Ahead


Please Note: Given less than one month before the New Year and the possible breaking of the hyperinflation crisis in the year ahead, I have entitled this "Update 2010." The report is intended to replace the Hyperinflation Special Report of April 8, 2008, which was published post-Bear Stearns but pre-Lehman, pre-TARP, pre-recession recognition and pre-2008 election. Nonetheless, the outlook has changed little. In turn, the April 2008 report updated and expanded upon the three-part Hyperinflation Series that began with the December 2006 SGS Newsletter.

The new missive includes much of the text in the prior edition, with revisions and updates reflecting the still-unfolding economic and systemic solvency crises, and it expands upon some areas touched upon in the previous report. SGS Special Reports published subsequent to April 2008 have supplemented the hyperinflation story and are incorporated by reference in this update: Money Supply Special Report (August 3, 2008), Depression Special Report (August 1, 2009), Consumer Liquidity Special Report (September 14, 2009).


A Great Collapse. The U.S. economic and systemic solvency crises of the last two years are just precursors to a Great Collapse: a hyperinflationary great depression. Such will reflect a complete collapse in the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar, a collapse in the normal stream of U.S. commercial and economic activity, a collapse in the U.S. financial system as we know it, and a likely realignment of the U.S. political environment. The current U.S. financial markets, financial system and economy remain highly unstable and vulnerable to unexpected shocks. The Federal Reserve is dedicated to preventing deflation, to debasing the U.S. dollar. The results of those efforts are being seen in tentative selling pressures against the U.S. currency and in the rallying price of gold. (more)

Amgen (AMGN): Undervalued Biotech Stock to Buy for 2011

Amgen, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) – This company is among the leading biotechs in the world.

Until recently, biotech stocks were among the worst performers of 2010. But relative strength studies show that the sector is emerging as a top performer with many undervalued, high-quality companies at reasonably low price-to-earnings multiples. As a leading investment-grade stock in the sector, AMGN is a top choice for a long-term investment.

After languishing for three years within a 20-point trading range, the stock is reaching the apex of a triangle that will most likely break to higher prices.

Note the recent surge in volume, along with a trading gap at $54 to $55 and a strong buy signal from the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicator.

AMGN could retrace back to support at $54, but a high-volume break through $58 would be a strong signal that a major move higher is about to occur.

S&P maintains a “four-star buy” on AMGN with a 12-month target of $68.

HES Radio: World Financial Report

The World Financial Report brings you timely information on the worlds most exciting markets like oil, precious metals, currencies, commodities and hard money markets like very rare color diamonds and collectibles. The World Financial Report makes predictions and gives investment advice and has been very successful in identifying trends in the marketplace.

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New D-mark could be twice as strong

(MarketWatch) — Several years before the creation of the European single currency in 1999, David Cobbold, a London foreign-exchange expert and son of the illustrious 1960s Bank of England governor Lord Cobbold, put forward a novel suggestion for the name of the new European unit of account.

Rather than the euro, Lord Cobbold junior recommended that the new currency should be called the Doppelmark, to be introduced at the rate of 2 Deutsche marks — with the name reminding Germans and others of the essential link between the new European money and its forebear, the German mark.

Scroll forward a decade and a half, and we see that the idea has come back into vogue again. As part of Franco-German saber-rattling over the future of economic and monetary union (EMU), senior Frenchmen are saying that, if by some mischance the euro were to unravel, the Germans would be forced to live with a new currency that would be double the value of the present one — a new form of Doppelmark, and one that would be intensely prejudicial to German exports. (more)

Steve Palmer: Go Long on Oil Equities

The Energy Report: Briefly tell us about AlphaNorth Asset Management.

Steve Palmer: AlphaNorth Asset Management manages the AlphaNorth Partners Fund, which is a long-biased, small cap-focused hedge fund that just finished its third year in business. In 2010, we launched our first flow-through offering—the AlphaNorth 2010 Flow-Through Limited Partnership.

TER: Are there many flow-through funds like that out there, or are you carving out a niche for yourselves?

SP: We're carving out a bit of a niche for ourselves, in terms of performance. There are dozens of flow-through funds.

TER: How is that fund performing to date?

SP: Extremely well. The net asset value (NAV) per unit was $16.42 at the end of November. The initial NAV was $10. We had two closings—one in March, one in April. We do not pay premiums for the flow-through shares, as flow-through funds usually pay a premium, and we actually averaged a discount. Our lawyers have advised me not to talk about returns because the AlphaNorth 2010 Flow-Through Limited Partnership has not been around for at least a year. I guess people have to figure out the difference between $16.42 and $10 on their own. (more)

Bloomberg Businessweek - 20 December 2010-02 January 2011

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