Saturday, October 30, 2010
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Rice rose for a 13th day in Chicago, the longest winning streak since at least 1989, after the Philippines said storms caused 523,013 metric tons of crop losses.
The Philippines, the world’s biggest rice buyer, last year produced 9.8 million tons of the grain and imported 2.2 million tons, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Rice has added 17 percent since Oct. 11, the last time futures fell. The current streak of gains is the longest for data compiled by Bloomberg going back to 1989.
Rough rice for January delivery climbed 7.5 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $15.245 per 100 pounds at 1:13 p.m. London time on the Chicago Board of Trade, the highest price for the most- active contract since Jan. 4. The grain has jumped 57 percent since the end of June as hot weather in the U.S., last year’s fourth-largest exporter, curbed production. (more)
While dividend growth investing has been hugely successful for many investors, it is very important to understand that it could be profitable for future investors as well. The stocks which have had long histories of rising dividend payments are frequently found in such lists as the S&P Dividend Aristocrats or Mergent's Dividend Achievers. These stocks are a strong example of Newton’s law of physics that a body in motion keeps getting in motion.
The following six stocks have not only delivered consistent annual dividend increases to shareholders, but also above average capital gains over the past decade as well. The companies include: (more)
After last week saw an insider selling to buying ratio of 1,411 to 1, this week the ratio has nearly doubled, hitting a ridiculous 2,341 to 1. And while Wall Street's liars and CNBC's clowns will have you throw all your money into "leading" techs like Oracle and Google, insiders in these names sold a combined $200 million in stock in the last week alone.
Next week could be a game changer… four Central bank meetings, China’s Manufacturing PMI, mid-term elections and two unemployment reports. Fasten your seat belt!
Look at a daily chart of December Crude; prices remained within the ascending triangle all this week. Before we reach the apex next week we expect a break lower to $77/78. On the week prices will finish virtually unchanged. Different story in natural gas as prices are above the 20 day MA for the first time in months and 15% off their lows from Monday. Our suggestion at this time is longs in December or January futures trailing stops or bull call spreads. On the December contract we could see 50-70 cents upside from here in the coming weeks.
Indices remain rangebound with the Dow H/L this week a 230 point range and the S&P trading range just over 25 points. It will take a trade below the 20 day MA for clients to add to their small bearish ES put positions. If and when, we should see prices back off 5-8%. Traders are advised to exit their bearish plays in Treasuries today; some at a loss and some at a profit depending on your positioning. We wish not to have exposure in 30-year bonds or 10-year notes into the hectic schedule next week. (more)
75 Ways That The Government And The Financial Elite Will Be Sucking Even More Of The Life Blood Out Of The American People In 2011
In no particular order, the following are 75 ways that the U.S. government, state governments, local governments and the financial elite will be sucking even more of the life blood out of the American people in 2011....
#1 State governments across the U.S. are raising fees and taxes in so many different ways it is staggering. A reader named Richard recently sent me an email in which he described the shock that he experienced when he recently received his license plate renewal notice in the mail....(more)
Boston University economist Laurence Kotlikoff says U.S. government debt is not $13.5-trillion (U.S.), which is 60 per cent of current gross domestic product, as global investors and American taxpayers think, but rather 14-fold higher: $200-trillion – 840 per cent of current GDP. “Let’s get real,” Prof. Kotlikoff says. “The U.S. is bankrupt.”
Writing in the September issue of Finance and Development, a journal of the International Monetary Fund, Prof. Kotlikoff says the IMF itself has quietly confirmed that the U.S. is in terrible fiscal trouble – far worse than the Washington-based lender of last resort has previously acknowledged. “The U.S. fiscal gap is huge,” the IMF asserted in a June report. “Closing the fiscal gap requires a permanent annual fiscal adjustment equal to about 14 per cent of U.S. GDP.”
This sum is equal to all current U.S. federal taxes combined. The consequences of the IMF’s fiscal fix, a doubling of federal taxes in perpetuity, would be appalling – and possibly worse than appalling.
Prof. Kotlikoff says: “The IMF is saying that, to close this fiscal gap [by taxation], would require an immediate and permanent doubling of our personal income taxes, our corporate taxes and all other federal taxes. (more)
Back in late August, I argued that hyperinflation would be triggered by a run on Treasury bonds. I described how such a run might happen, and argued that if Treasuries were no longer considered safe, then commodities would become the store of value.
See, how come I don’t look as cool when I make my predictions?
Such a run on commodities, I further argued, would inevitably lead to price increases and a rise in the Consumer Price Index, which would initially be interpreted by the Federal Reserve, the Federal government, as well as the commentariat, as a good thing: A sign that “the economy is recovering”, a sign that “normalcy” was returning.
I argued that—far from being “a sign of recovery”—rising CPI would be the sign that things were about to get ugly.
I concluded that, like the stagflation of ‘79, inflation would rise to the double digits relatively quickly. However, unlike in 1980, when Paul Volcker raised interest rates severely in order to halt inflation, in today’s weakened macro-economic environment, that remedy is simply not available to Ben Bernanke. (more)
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John Taylor, who has not made any friends at the administration with his recent comparison of Ben Bernanke to Hitler, has released his latest letter whose purpose is to disabuse what Traxis flip flopper extraordinaire Barton Biggs (or rather is praying, due to his high single digit negative YTD P&L), as well as many others believe, will be a 10% boom in stocks prices following November 3. Wrong. As this whole rally has been liquidity driven, all that will take to reverse it, is for someone to step between the Chairman and his favorite Hewlett Packard. That someone: anti-Fed crusader Ron Paul, who will see this as his last mandate (and chance) to leave a memorable mark on the Fed's modus operandi: "After the Republican victory things will change. The Fed will be hamstrung, as Ron Paul, a conservative standard-bearer and harsh critic of the Fed, will head the sub-committee overseeing its actions. Liquidity expansion or new programs will probably drop sharply under his watch. Paul would argue that the Fed’s unfettered ability to “debase” the currency is about to come to an end" Which is why all those who believe "more of the same" will continue indefinitely, may be wise to hedge their bets. Taylor also looks at the game theory between the Fed and the ECB: "As the US authorities turn to a tighter monetary and fiscal policy, driving the country into a recession, causing the US and its banking system to withdraw liquidity forcing the dollar higher, the ECB will be forced to be more accommodative. Our analysis argues that the month of November will see the flash point that begins to reverse the markets’ optimistic course." (more)