Shorting the world’s most overvalued asset, the 30 year US Treasury bond, has got to be the big trade from here. The relentless whirring of the printing presses is so loud that they keep me awake at night, even though, according to Mapquest, I live 2,804.08 miles away. What will be unique with this meltdown is that it will be the first collapse in history of a bond market in a non-inflationary environment.
It is not soaring consumer prices that will execute the coup de grace to the long bond. It will be the sheer volume of issuance. The Feds have to sell nearly $2.5 trillion of debt to cover a massive budget deficit and refund maturing paper, easily the largest cash call in history. Bring in a double dip recession and a second, larger stimulus package, and those numbers ratchet up considerably. (more)