Monday, June 28, 2010

Weekly Summary and a Look Ahead

The key economic report this week will be the June Employment Report to be released on Friday. It will be a busy week ...

On Monday, the BEA will release the May Personal Income and Outlays report. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in income, and a 0.2% increase in spending. Also on Monday, the May Chicago Fed National Activity Index will be released at 8:30 AM. This is a composite index of other data.

On Tuesday, the April Case-Shiller house price index will be released at 9:00 AM. The consensus is for a slight decline in the house price index. At 10:00 AM, the Conference Board will release Consumer Confidence for June (consensus is for about the same as in May or 63.3).

On Wednesday, the ADP employment report will be released (consensus is for an increase of 60K private sector jobs, up from 55K in May). Also on Wednesday, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for June will be released. Consensus is for the PMI to be about the same as May, or 59.7. (more)

Technically Precious with Merv, June 25, 2010

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Which Investments To Own…And Which To Avoid

Investing has never been easy, but the last 15 years have been some of the toughest investors have ever faced, largely due to the fact that the US stock market has either been in a bubble or post-bubble Crash for most of that time.

Indeed, we officially entered a bear market in 1999 (or 2007 depending on how you look at it) but because so much of the US's collective wealth and economic activity relies on financial speculation, the Federal Reserve has essentially blown serial bubbles to combat the collapse ever since.

Because of this, many investors today view the stock market with suspicion. After all, if the only investing environments that occur are speculative bubbles or gut-wrenching collapses, it's hard to find any fundamentally sensible reason to invest in stocks. (more)

Fear Feeds Greed With S&P 500 Correlation to Bond Yields Highest on Record

U.S. stock prices are mirroring government bond yields more than ever, a signal to bulls that shares may be poised to rally.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and 10-year Treasury rates posted a correlation coefficient of 0.8412 in the 60 trading days through June 16, showing stock prices and bond yields were the most linked in Bloomberg data going back to 1962. The last time the relationship was almost this strong during an economic expansion was at the beginning of the 2002 to 2007 bull market, when the benchmark gauge for U.S. equities doubled.

Rising correlations show investors are ignoring relative values among industries and assets and reacting to day-to-day signals on the economy, convinced Europe’s debt crisis will spur the second global contraction in three years. Invesco Ltd., Wells Capital Management Inc. and Chemung Canal Trust Co., who together manage $957 billion, say those concerns are overblown and shares will advance as the fastest profit growth since the mid-1990s restores confidence.(more)

Current Technical Setups On The Emini S&P

The latest minor trend in the emini points to a downward reversal on June 21, so the short-term trend is lower. Things get a little more complicated when you are looking at the bigger picture and trying to figure out whether this market is going to make another leg lower or continue with the trendline breakout to the upside.
This is where trading skills are very important. It is likely that the technical picture could evolve multiple times before we get a clear movement. Steadfastly sticking to an opinion even though the technicals change in a new direction is a recipe for eventual losses. (more)

King World News Interviews James Turk

James is Chairman and Founder of - Since 1987 James Turk has written “The Freemarket Gold & Money Report,” an investment newsletter. James has specialized in international banking, finance and investments since 1969. His business career began at The Chase Manhattan Bank (now JP Morgan Chase Bank). He subsequently joined the investment and trading company of a prominent precious metals trader based in Greenwich, Connecticut then moved to the United Arab Emirates to be appointed Manager of the Commodity Department of the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, a position he held until resigning in 1987. In this interview James discusses which stage of the bull market that silver is in and it may surprise the listeners, he also discusses the strength of the gold bull, the fact that we may not get the usual summer selloff, how bull markets keep investors out, how others lose their position, increased taxes guaranteeing a depression and much more.

click here for audio

Suiting Up for a Post-Dollar World

The global financial crisis is playing out like a slow-moving, highly predicable stage play. In the current scene, Western governments are caught between the demands of entitled welfare beneficiaries and the anxiety of bondholders who fear they will be stuck with the bill. As the crisis reaches an apex, prime ministers and presidents are forced into a Sophie's choice between social unrest and bankruptcy. But with the "Club Med" economies set to fall like dominoes, the US Treasury market is not yet acting the role we would have anticipated.

Our argument has always been that the US benefits from its reserve-currency status, allowing it to accumulate unsustainable debts for an unusually long period without the immediate repercussions of inflation or higher borrowing costs. But this false sense of security may be setting us up for a truly monumental crash. (more)

Here Comes The Recession

We are halfway through the year (where did the time go?) and it is time to make some predictions about the last half of the year. This week we look at what the leading indicators are telling us, size up a new indicator, drop in on banking data, and do a whole lot more.

Quickly, I will be on Larry Kudlow's show next Tuesday, which is at 7 pm Eastern. Larry has promised that we will spend some quality time on some of the current issues facing us. See you there! And now, let's jump in.

The Risk of Recession

I am on record as saying I think there is a 50-50 chance we slip back into recession in 2011, as I think the economy will soften in the latter half of the year and a large tax increase in 2011 (from the expiring Bush tax cuts) will tip us into recession. (more)

The G8 "Solution" to the Crisis is the Cause of Economic Collapse

Chart of the Day