Gluskin Sheff chief economist David Rosenberg highlights some of the major differences in the equity markets throughout the last year.
• The VIX was 50, not 17.
• The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 2.9%, not 3.7%.
• The budget deficit was $900 billion, not $1.5 trillion.
• Baa spreads were 540bps and tightening, not 260bps and widening.
• The market was 20% ‘cheap’ as per Shiller P/E ratio, not 25% overvalued.
• The DXY was at 90 and depreciating, not 80 and appreciating.
• Oil was at $47/bbl, not $82/bbl (we can see $80+ crude being good for the Saudi market; we’re not sure how it fits in bullishly to the S&P call).
• Equity PM cash ratios were at 5.5%, not 3.6%.
The only thing we’d like to add is some jobs data. Unemployment rate has soared from 8.1% in February 2009 to 9.7% last month. But 651,000 jobs were lost in February 2009, compared to only 36,000 last month.