Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Why It's Time to Sell Apple

It’s time to sell Apple (AAPL). There are probably not that many people who will tell you that right now, if any really. However, that is a large part of my rationale for selling it. First, I should be very clear up front that I love Apple as a company, a stock, a retailer, and the manufacturer of the best consumer electronics on the market. I will argue any day that Apple is the best run company on the face of the planet and the performance in its stock over the past two years reflects that. If you read my article Ultra Bull: A Case For The Succession Of Apple back in February of 2009, it would be obvious how deep my passion for this company runs. You would also be up close to 250% over the last two years because I recommended buying the stock at a closing price of $90.25 on February 24th. You would be up considerably more than that if you invested in the LEAP strategies I recommended. However, all good things must come to an end...at least temporarily. Lately the enthusiasm and bullishness surrounding Apple has reached a fever pitch. The company has crushed analyst estimates for the last 17 straight quarters. I can’t say for sure, but that must be some kind of record. Everyone expects Apple to deliver another blowout quarter simply because they have such a reliable track record. The consensus estimate is for Apple to report $4.08 per share for Q4, an increase of 124% over the previous year. Contrary to popular belief, though, I think the expectations are simply too high going into this earnings report. The abysmal performance in the bank stocks last week coupled with comments from a few key analysts convinced me to close all of my Apple positions after one hell of a ride. (more)

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