Thursday, October 14, 2010

European Investors Haven’t Been this Bullish in Nine Years!

Price-earnings ratios and dividend yields are showing that the stock market is expensive. And my big-picture economic indicators are signaling high recession risks. My liquidity indicators are confirming this recessionary scenario … they’re telling us that stocks are probably on the verge of plunging into a bear market.

Moreover, most stock market sentiment indicators are high enough to allow for major, stock market losses. And one of them, a German sentiment index, grabbed my attention.

The Sentix Sentiment Indicator measures the six-month expectations of European institutional and individual investors. It’s calculated with the following formula:

Number of bulls — Number of bears
Total number of investors

And it’s revealing that …

European Investors Have Turned Very Bullish

As you can see on the chart below the Sentix took a huge jump recently. It actually reached the highest reading since it was invented in 2001, which means according to this indicator European stock investors have never been more bullish. (more)

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