Friday, September 17, 2010

Today in Commodities: Tipping Point

A number of markets appear to be reaching their tipping point; indices, metals, agriculture and currencies all fit that bill.

There's been a correction in Crude back to the trend line and 20 day MA, as predicted in recent posts. We think bulls will dig in their heels and prices should bounce from here; aggressive traders should buy this dip. Those that have multiple longs from lower levels in Crude, heating oil or RBOB were advised to lighten up exiting 1/3 of their position. Natural gas has made its way to higher ground the last 5 sessions. Even in the face of a bearish inventory report, an impressive reversal lifting prices back above the 20 day MA. Buy November futures and November call spreads.

The last 4 days the S&P trading range has been 15 points and in our opinion this is a consolidation before prices roll over. The same resistance level that capped rallies in August appears to be capping prices once again. Clients have continued to gain bearish exposure in the ES via November options. (more)

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