Bears Should Beware

I'm going to go through some signs that rabid bears might do well to pay attention to because I think the market is very close to a major bottom. (That doesn't mean we are guaranteed to make new highs, although we might. Just that we can probably expect an explosive rally soon, even if it ultimately turns out to be a counter trend rally in an ongoing bear market).

First off, way too many people are counting on the head and shoulders pattern taking the market directly down to 850. Folks, historically these head and shoulder patterns have a success rate of about 50%. A coin toss, in other words. Didn't we learn that lesson last July?

Let’s go now to the charts. We have a large momentum divergence that has developed on the daily charts. (more)