Saturday, March 6, 2010

Double top for stocks or double trouble?


The drawback of writing a newsletter with relatively strong opinions in market direction is the substantial risk of being wrong...or in this case just early (we think). Unfortunately, our crystal ball was a bit cloudy earlier this week. We were right about the rally, but didn't anticipate it moving quite this far.

Our 1125 objective in the S&P has come and gone and while we still feel like the market will see a reversal sooner rather than later, we cannot overlook the possibility of a retest of the January highs. This would put the S&P just under 1150...or even moderately higher. The Russell on the other hand, has already surpassed its recent highs and is now trading in territory not seen since late 2008.

There are very valid arguments for the bear camp that are being overlooked (or over run) by this rally, but sometimes fundamentals simply don't matter. The market is panicked...shorts are panicking and being squeezed out and the last of the sidelined cash is panicking to get in. (more)

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