Sugar Shortage May Turn ‘Acute’ in Third Quarter

A global sugar shortage, which drove prices to the highest level in three decades, may peak in the third quarter this year on demand from the U.S., Mexico, India and Pakistan, according to U.S.-based Tropix Capital Management.

“As we enter the second quarter, we enter the inter-crop period for South Brazil when export supply is minimal,” Sean Diffley, founder of the hedge fund and former head of sugar trading at ED&F Man Holdings Ltd., said by email. “Countries like Russia will return to the market in force. The acutest part of the deficit may not be apparent until the third quarter.”

India, China, Indonesia, Pakistan, Egypt and Russia are among countries planning to buy sugar to cool domestic prices, worsening a deficit that may reach 11.92 million tons in the year ending April 30, up from 8.32 million tons predicted in October, Kingsman SA said yesterday. The shortfall may be 5 million to 6 million tons this season, according to Tropix. (more)