2010, a year of the Tiger for the Chinese starts with accentuated 'Asian decoupling' relative to OECD countries, where slow economic recovery from the 2008-2009 recession is presently the norm. Further into 2010 this may change, becoming inflation-pulled economic growth for the OECD group, with serious risks of 'interest rate medicine' being applied by central bankers.
Both China and India may attain 9% to 10% real GDP growth in 2010, according to many analysts, in different major banks, finance houses, the IMF and UN agencies, who hedge their bets by forecasting global economy growth as anywhere from below 2.5% to over 4.5% in 2010. This is a high-low difference in global output of around 1400 billion US dollars.
Underlying all forecasts of strong global recovery, interest rates are projected as likely to stay low, or extreme low, but with decreasing visibility from early 2010. (more)
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