Thursday, October 29, 2009

Roubini: Global Markets Could Soon Crash

The global markets are at risk of crashing when the dollar rebounds, says economist Nouriel Roubini.

Roubini, a professor at NYU, is credited with long predicting the financial collapse of 2007 and 2008.

“In the short run what’s happening is there’s a wall of liquidity, not just in the U.S., but around the world, that is chasing assets,” he told CNBC.

“It’s equities, it’s commodities, it’s credit, it’s gold, it’s emerging market asset classes.” (more)

Marc Faber Video Interview From Copenhagen

CNBC Viewership Plunges 50% In October

If anyone wants to know why CNBC anchors are so pale and nervous these days, look no further. As Comcast CEO Brian Roberts considers what to keep and what to, well, cut, post his digestion of NBC Universal (assuming deal rumors are true naturally) his eyes likely cast casual nervous glances at Nielsen reports of CNBC viewership. Yet his nervousness is quite minor compared to what actual employees must be feeling after Nielsen reported a 50% plunge in CNBC vierwership in October year over year. Specifically, CNBC has experienced a massive 52% decline in overall viewers during business day hours (5 am - 7 pm), and a not much better 49% drop in its demo (25-54) in the month of October as compared to last year. Specific shows that are likely to follow the fate of Dennis Kneale's recently cancelled 8pm gobbledygook are likely the Kudlow Report and Mad Money, which are down 59% and 56%, respectively. (more)

Study: Recession Makes Retiring at 65 Harder

Workers in more than half of U.S. households will likely be unable to retire at 65 at the same lifestyle they enjoy today, a new study says.

The Center for Retirement Research at Boston College says its latest analysis of household financial status shows 51 percent are at high risk of falling short of having enough money in retirement. That's up from 44 percent in 2007.

The center's National Retirement Risk Index was developed with funding from Nationwide Mutual Insurance Co. (more)

Fears of a New Chill in Home Sales

Even as new figures show house prices have risen for three consecutive months, concerns are growing that the real estate market will be severely tested this winter.

Artificially low interest rates and a government tax credit are luring buyers, but both those inducements are scheduled to end. Defaults and distress sales are rising in the middle and upper price ranges. And millions of people have lost so much equity that they are locked into their homes for years, a modern variation of the Victorian debtor’s prison that is freezing a large swath of the market.

“Plenty of pain yet to come,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief United States economist for MFR. He is forecasting an imminent resumption of price declines. (more)

McAlvany Weekly Commentary, Oct 28, 2009

Where Keynes Went Wrong: An Interview with Hunter Lewis

October 28th, 2009

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Jim Rogers: Dollar Rally Ahead

Investment legend Jim Rogers says the dollar is due for a correction upward and commodities and stocks for a correction downward.

Those would be natural reactions after the extreme recent moves in those markets.

“The dollar is overdue for a rally. Everybody in the world is pessimistic on it, including me,” Rogers told Bloomberg.

“Whenever you have everybody on the same side of a boat, you know it’s time to move to the other side for a while. We may have a rally in the dollar, we may have a decline in perhaps some of the commodity prices or stock prices for a while. . . That’s what always happens.” (more)

Gold Declines and USD Rises, But Are These Moves Really Significant?

Precious metals moved lower this week, which was accompanied by a decline in the general stock market and a small rally in the USD Index. The situation in the main stock indices is still rather unclear, so this week I would like to point your attention to the U.S. Dollar as it provides clues invaluable to anyone involved in the precious metals sector. After all, there is a clearly visible negative correlation between USD Index and gold, silver and PM stocks.

Let's begin with the chart (charts courtesy of featuring the USD Index in the medium term, and after that I will move to the short-term analysis. (more)

The coming public pension nightmare

With all the fiscal problems created by Barack Obama, the public pension crisis cannot be laid at his doorstep.

That's because public unions - police, firefighters, teachers, state and local workers, and transit employees - have been gouging cities and states for years, sweetening their pensions at taxpayer expense until a nightmare is now on the horizon; the inability of cities and states to pay for these diamond-studded pension plans.

And that will eventually mean a taxpayer bailout to end all taxpayer bailouts. (more)

A Perfect Setup for a Stock Market Correction

Since there’s no holy grail to analyze financial markets, the best approach is an eclectic one. So I incorporate as many tools as possible in my analysis, including: Fundamental valuations, macroeconomic models, monetary and fiscal policies, interest rate developments, sentiment and momentum indicators, and chart analysis.

Major market turning points are usually characterized by many of these tools. That was clearly the case in 2007 when everything fell neatly into place to call the end of a bull market that had started in 2003. (more)

Marc Faber, Dollar Will Eventually Go to Value of Zero, Oct 26, 2009

CRB Index Where To Now?

Click here to watch video