Monday, August 3, 2009
It would be foolish to suggest from a technical outlook that the stock market is not technically strong at the moment. These are quite bullish formations and while they show the markets to be overbought, there’s no argument to be made that they suggest any serious declines for the foreseeable future. Technically, these charts suggest at the moment another 10% higher before any good selling opportunity presents itself. Ideally, it would be great if we went straight up to those levels without any meaningful correction as that would almost certainly become a screaming sell. But markets usually don’t make things easy so I remain on the sideline with mucho cash waiting for a real good opportunity. (more)
Curiously, the war against pensions has received less attention than it should. People understand taxes, and usually complain when they rise. They also understand the notion of wages, and raise a similar stink when they go down.
But pensions appear to baffle most of us. They shouldn't. Pensions and other retirement benefits are simply deferred wages – money you earn now and sock away (or have someone else sock away for you) so that you'll have something to live on when you're too old, tired, sick or unwanted to work. (more)
The result of these mediocre to poor auctions has to be more pressure on the dollar, as budget deficits continue to widen.
Mortgage applications fell for the first time in four weeks, driven by a drop in demand for refinancing loans. Both purchase and refi loans fell 6.3%.
This is an early appraisal of the Chinese visit to Washington. There is no question the Chinese have the Illuminists stymied. The big question is has China demanded the rest of our high technology expertise that Bill Clinton was unable to deliver to them? Or have they pledged government properties to the Chinese? (more)
As the White House sought to balance campaign rhetoric with governing, officials appeared willing to extend unemployment benefits. With former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan saying he is "pretty sure we've already seen the bottom" of the recession, Obama aides sought to defend the economic stimulus and calm a jittery public. (more)
The world is heading for a catastrophic energy crunch that could cripple a global economic recovery because most of the major oil fields in the world have passed their peak production, a leading energy economist has warned.
Higher oil prices brought on by a rapid increase in demand and a stagnation, or even decline, in supply could blow any recovery off course, said Dr Fatih Birol, the chief economist at the respected International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris, which is charged with the task of assessing future energy supplies by OECD countries.In an interview with The Independent, Dr Birol said that the public and many governments appeared to be oblivious to the fact that the oil on which modern civilisation depends is running out far faster than previously predicted and that global production is likely to peak in about 10 years – at least a decade earlier than most governments had estimated. (more)