Thursday, July 23, 2009

US Stocks Rally On Earnings, Housing; Dow Back Over 9000

A mix of good news about profits and housing sparked a broad-based stock rally in the U.S. Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up nearly 200 points and crossing above 9000 for the first time since January.

The blue-chip average was recently up 172 points, or 2%, at 9054. AT&T rose more than 3% and 3M was up 6%. Both announced declines in second-quarter profits that were smaller than analysts expected. Microsoft was up 2.8% and American Express was up 2.7%. They are due to report after the closing bell.

Earnings have largely been at the crux of the Dow's more than week-long crusade back above 9000. While the index snapped a 7-day winning streak on Wednesday, it is up more than 5% this month and has tacked on nearly 1000 points in two weeks. Should the Dow close at its current level it would mark a new high for 2009. (more)

The Wall Street Journal USA July 23 2009

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Coasttocoastam July 21, 2009 Web Bot Predictions

George Ure & 'Clif' discussed their web bot technology which has continued to give archetype descriptors of future events. Their method captures changes in language patterns within Internet forums. This aggregated data is then processed with software to determine various keywords, which they interpret in a predictive fashion. They foresee a number of negative cycles/events converging over the next few years:
  • A big crisis is kicked off on October 25, 2009. It could be that Israel bombs Iran, or that Swine Flu goes into a level of extreme lethality. 10 days later, in relation to this crisis, the Obama administration will be thrown into chaos.
  • When Israel bombs Iran, they'll use a nuclear-tipped bunker buster that will hit something unforeseen underground. As a result, a radioactive cloud will form that will pollute and sicken Southeast Asia. This will cause much of the world to turn against Israel.
  • The "Death of the Dollar" will be a continuing trend, with a hyper inflationary period in 2010, and banking crises/confidence losses that will begin in August 2009 and escalate by November 2009.
  • "Global Coastal Phenomena" will be gradual, yet by March/April 2011 the situation could be disturbing for many people. Unusual movements of the Moon brought on by anomalies in the magnetosphere could cause coastal disruptions.
  • The magnetosphere problems could lead to ultraviolet scorching of food crops. Grain crops will fail, mainly in the Northern Hemisphere, leading to food riots in the winter of 2010/spring of 2011. Specifically, they'll be riots in Rome that will spill over into the Vatican.
  • In South America, they'll be large or mass sightings of UFO-related phenomena. In the summer of 2010, a video crew will interview an escapee from an internment facility. The young bald man will later be revealed to be a "non-Terran" human. (more)
listen to audio segment #1, segment #2, segment #3.

McAlvany Weekly Commentary: The Panic of 1907 and the Legacy of the Federal Reserve

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Why Gold Should Anchor A Portfolio

Recently I discussed some of the reasons investors often fall short. Today I want to help bring clarity to your investment goals and also explain why gold should hold a central place in your portfolio. If you succeed in these two areas, you'll not only prosper, you will also be prepared for the incredible changes and shocks that I believe are coming.

As Richard Russell always stresses, succeeding in the stock market is a lifetime learning process. At age 84 or so, he is still working diligently at it. As we have all learned, making money in the stock market is not as easy as the hucksters would have us believe. Success comes not just from market knowledge but from learning from our mistakes. And it is critical to acknowledge that we all make mistakes. To succeed also includes knowing ourselves, especially the emotions which often rule our decisions. It can be just as important to avoid a disaster or to get out of a potential one than to have a successful trade. Just as in baseball, we aim to have a high batting average and to avoid deep slumps. And as an aside, (speaking from experience), this invariably means making sure your spouse is comfortable with your finances. (more)

Bernanke Terrified Over Commercial Real Estate, Seeks Still More Power Over Consumers

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said a potential wave of defaults in commercial real estate may present a “difficult” challenge for the economy, without committing to additional steps to aid the market.

Bernanke, testifying before the Senate Banking Committee today, urged lenders to modify “problem” mortgages to avert defaults. Christopher Dodd, the Connecticut Democrat who chairs the panel, told Bernanke that “some have suggested” the commercial market “may even dwarf the residential mortgage problems” in the U.S. (more)

US foreclosure crisis spreads to new states

America’s foreclosure crisis – which has been concentrated in Arizona, California, Florida, and Nevada – is beginning to spill over to neighboring states.

As a result, the fallout from the housing bubble looks increasingly likely to spread, pushed by a worsening economy, rising unemployment, and what appears to be a “bubble thy neighbor” effect.

Nationally, foreclosure filings rose 9 percent to reach 1.5 million in the first six months of 2009, according to a report released Thursday by RealtyTrac, an online marketplace for foreclosure properties. That’s the highest total since the Irvine, Calif., firm began reporting the figures in 2005. (more)

Economist Shiller Sees 'Bad Recession,' Stocks Could Drop Again

Esteemed economist Dr. Robert Shiller was among the very few to warn of a housing bust before it happened.

Now he tells Newsmax and that, although the housing market could be approaching a bottom, prices might remain in the “doldrums” for years to come as the United States remains in a “liquidity trap” comparable to the one it faced during the Great Depression. (more)

Rent vs. Buy Comparison Pushing People into Homes

For Aaron Carter, a musician who was struggling to fit a drum set, a piano and three guitars into his 600-square-foot apartment in Phoenix, the math on owning a home finally began to work in his favor.

Rent for the apartment he shared with his wife: $615. Mortgage payment for a home with twice the space: $760. And the interest on a mortgage is tax-deductible. So they jumped at the chance to buy some elbow room.

"We figured that everything together, getting more space, getting out of the apartment life and also just the prices right now, it just was the perfect time for us as a couple" to buy, said Carter, 20. (more)

Riding out the Recession and whatever else is thrown your way

One of the arguments against stockpiling food. First off.... why bother? The supermarkets are always full, aren’t they? Why spend the extra money? If you are reading CFP, you must have some sense that the world has changed--and not for the better.

Even the Government is encouraging us to have “Three Days” supply until you can be “Relocated.” Maybe I’d rather not sleep at a stadium and stand in line for a bowl of soup with my 20,000 new “best friends?”

Another reason in one word? KATRINA? The US Government couldn’t handle ONE large population center being hit by a hurricaine. (more)

Preparing for the coming Economic Tsunami

As discussed in parts 1 though 3of this series, the global demand for energy, and fossil fuels are expected to increase. At the same time, the supplies to meet that demand are declining. We examined how the gap between supply and demand is at risk of becoming too large and making the current economic crisis far worse. Finally we examined how a comprehensive policy that includes increasing U.S. supply and decreasing U.S. demand for fossil fuels can help ensure that we have access to a cost-effective and reliable source of energy for the foreseeable future.

The unfortunate fact is that the U.S. government seems unwilling, or unable to develop a comprehensive Energy Policy that could help prevent this economic collapse. Indeed, many members of the Senate and Congress, as well as the Obama Administration, seem bound and determined to attack our industry and make it all the more likely to create a significant gap between supply and demand. (more)