Monday, July 20, 2009

Hourly Action In Gold

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US / EUR Profit From the Next Move (Video)

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Ten Reasons the Countertrend Rally May Be Over

On a trading basis, I exited the position on April 15 when the S&P was at about 845, for reasons I reviewed in Anatomy of a Losing Trade. On May 19, as outlined in MV Weather Report: Winds Blow S&P to 1000?, I resumed the position with the S&P at around 900 for reasons I fully fleshed out in Why the Counter-Trend Rally Can’t Be Stopped. At that time, I built a portfolio consisting of stocks such as BAC, MS, JPM, AAPL, RIMM, PALM, GOOG, IO, YGE, JASO, SPWRA, WFR, BRCM, QLD, and SSO, as well as various options positions on these and a few other stocks.

Ever since I published my first articles on the countertrend rally, I've been consistent in stating that the window for the countertrend rally would be in the June-July period. Consistent with this long-held view, since mid-June, I've been expressing increasing caution regarding the market for reasons outlined in various buzzes and articles (see all articles and buzzes published since June 16).

500,000 Will Exhaust Unemployment Benefits by September, 1.5 Million by Year-end

The Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC) program began in June 30,2008. Benefits under the act have now been extended twice. Unless Obama extends the program a third time, it's the end of the line for many receiving unemployment benefits.

Please consider First wave of jobless exhaust unemployment benefits. (more)

Natural Gas ETF Plunges More Than Fuel Even as Shares Sell Out

The largest exchange-traded fund for natural gas, so popular that it ran out of shares two weeks ago, has lost 43 percent this year and probably will keep falling until winter, trailing the fuel it’s supposed to track.

The United States Natural Gas Fund will suffer from record- high gas inventories and seasonal prices hitting the ETF harder than the fuel, said Teri Viswanath, the director of commodities research at Credit Suisse Securities USA in Houston. Investors piled into the fund this year, driving up its number of outstanding shares 11-fold. (more)

Fiscal ruin of the Western world beckons

Events have already forced Premier Brian Cowen to carry out the harshest assault yet seen on the public services of a modern Western state. He has passed two emergency budgets to stop the deficit soaring to 15pc of GDP. They have not been enough. The expert An Bord Snip report said last week that Dublin must cut deeper, or risk a disastrous debt compound trap.

A further 17,000 state jobs must go (equal to 1.25m in the US), though unemployment is already 12pc and heading for 16pc next year. (more)

Many Predict US Financial Collapse in September

Let us contemplate the day in the near future when the consequences of financial chicanery finally outpace the ability of the governments, central banks and big media to cover up and obfuscate the truth. Many respected voices have now gone on record that September 30 or thereabouts will be that day. (more)