Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Another Look At the S&P 500

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Gerald Celente, The "Bailout Bubble" -- The Bubble to End All Bubbles

KINGSTON, NY, 13 May 2009 -- The biggest financial bubble in history is being inflated in plain sight, said Gerald Celente, Director of The Trends Research Institute. "This is the Mother of All Bubbles, and when it explodes," Celente warns, "it will signal the end to the boom/bust cycle that has characterized economic activity throughout the developed world."

Either unwilling or unable to call the bubble by its proper name, the media, Washington and Wall Street describe the stupendous government expenditures on rescue packages, stimulus plans, buyouts and takeovers as emergency measures needed to salvage the severely damaged economy.

"All of this terminology is econo-jargon," said Celente. "It's like calling torture 'enhanced interrogation techniques.' Washington is inflating the biggest bubble ever: the 'Bailout Bubble.'
"This is much bigger than the Dot-com and Real Estate bubbles which hit speculators, investors and financiers the hardest. However destructive the effects of these busts on employment, savings and productivity, the Free Market Capitalist framework was left intact. But when the 'Bailout Bubble' explodes, the system goes with it."

The economic framework of the United States has been restructured. Federal interventionist policies have given the government equity stakes, executive powers and management control of what was once private enterprise. To finance these buyouts, rescue and stimulus packages -- instead of letting failed businesses fail and bankrupt banks and bandit brokerages go bankrupt -- trillions of dollars are being injected into the stricken economy.

Phantom dollars, printed out of thin air, backed by nothing ... and producing next to nothing ... defines the "Bailout Bubble." Just as with the other bubbles, so too will this one burst. But unlike Dot-com and Real Estate, when the "Bailout Bubble" pops, neither the President nor the Federal Reserve will have the fiscal fixes or monetary policies available to inflate another.

With no more massive economic bubbles left to blow up, they'll set their sights on bigger targets. "Given the pattern of governments to parlay egregious failures into mega-failures, the classic trend they follow, when all else fails, is to take their nation to war," observed Celente.

Since the "Bailout Bubble" is neither called nor recognized as a bubble, its sudden and spectacular explosion will create chaos. A panicked public will readily accept any Washington/Wall Street/Main Stream Media alibi that shifts the blame for the catastrophe away from the policy makers and onto some scapegoat.

"At this time we are not forecasting a war. However, the trends in play are ominous," Celente concluded. "While we cannot pinpoint precisely when the 'Bailout Bubble' will burst, we are certain it will. When it does, it should be understood that a major war could follow."

© MMIX The Trends Research Institute®

Now in Post-bubble Era as Financial Industry Bombs Out

By Bill Bonner • May 11th, 2009
The important news:

Yesterday, both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank announced moves to boost the economy. They're both falling in line behind Mr. Bernanke, who is "pulling out all the stops" in order to avoid a deep depression. Both the BoE and the ECB are going to take up forms of QE - quantitative easing - in which the banks buy government debt directly.

Don't try QE at home, dear reader; you'll be arrested for counterfeiting. QE so closely resembles old-fashioned printing press money that you couldn't tell them apart in a police line up. Both are ways to increase the supply of money...which, according to theory, leads to consumer price inflation.

The Dow fell 102 points yesterday too. The bear market rally has gone on for nearly 9 weeks. It's probably ready for a rest...and maybe a pullback. We doubt it's over though. There is still far too much money and far too many suckers who have not been pulled back into the stock market. The next leg down of this bear market will have to wait - most likely. (more)

How Will the United States Finance the Biggest Deficit of All Time?

By Bill Bonner • May 11th, 2009 •

When Ronald Reagan moved into the White House, total U.S. debt equaled 168% of GDP. The next 27 years took the total to 370%; it was heralded as a triumph of the Anglo-Saxon free enterprise system, but it left people with an additional $27 trillion of debt. And now, the economic system that created so many heavy balls and such long chains is in the recovery room - looked after by quacks and prayed for by most of the world.

You can explain the model in a few simple sentences: Encourage people to spend. When they run out of money, encourage them to borrow. When they tire of borrowing and spending, lend them more at lower rates.

As a way for people to build wealth, this economic model of the Bubble Period was as ineffective as a bad banker. It was a 'have your cake and eat it too' school of financial success with an obvious flaw. People noticed it when the correction began. They went to their cupboards and found there was nothing there. Homeowners - who had borrowed heavily against their houses - found their equity had disappeared. Capitalists found they had no capital. Workers lost their work. (more)

Dollar Rally Will End, Rogers Says; May Short Stocks

By Chen Shiyin and Haslinda Amin

May 12 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar’s rally is set to end in a “currency crisis,” investor Jim Rogers said, adding that he may bet on a slide in equities after nine weeks of gains.

The advance in the U.S. currency has been driven by investors covering their short sales, Rogers, 66, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Singapore. He may consider adding to his holdings of the yen and prefers the euro to the dollar or the pound, the investor added.

“We’re going to have a currency crisis, probably this fall or the fall of 2010,” Rogers said. “It’s been building up for a long time. We’ve had a huge rally in the dollar, an artificial rally in the dollar, so it’s time for a currency crisis.” (more)

Active Trader Breakout Signals For Gold, Silver & Oil

Chris Vermeulen
May 10, 2009
Gold, Silver and Oil breaks out to new multi week highs and shows signs of more strength to come. The charts below show both weekly and daily trading analysis pointing to higher prices for these commodities.

Weekly Gold ETF Trading

Gold closed on Friday at a 5 week high, breaking above its resistance trend line on the weekly chart. Weekly chart pattern breakouts carry much more momentum behind a move, than daily charts. This chart of gold (GLD fund) clearly shows a weekly breakout in the price of gold.

Also, I have drawn what appears to be a very large reverse Head & Shoulders pattern. It is this pattern, which is pointing to a much higher price for gold. The measured move for this pattern is the distance from the Bottom (head) to the top (neckline), which is about $300 per ounce. If we see this chart break above the neckline over the next few months, then most technical traders will be buying gold up to $1300 per ounce, which would be the next major price target. (more)

U.S. foreclosures at record rate in April

RealtyTrac sees bank repossessions spiking in coming months

By Robert Daniel, MarketWatch

TEL AVIV (MarketWatch) -- U.S. foreclosure filings in April rose to a record, affecting one in every 374 housing units, and bank repossessions in particular may spike in the next few months, RealtyTrac reported.

Foreclosure filings -- defined as default notices, auction-sale notices, and bank repossessions -- were reported on 342,038 U.S. properties in April, up less than 1% from March and up 32% from April 2008, the Irvine, Calif., real-state consulting firm reported.

RealtyTrac began issuing its report on foreclosures in January 2005.

"Much of this activity is at the initial stages of foreclosure -- the default and auction stages -- while bank repossessions ... were down on a monthly and annual basis to their lowest level since March 2008," Chief Executive James J. Saccacio said in a statement.

"This suggests that many lenders and servicers are beginning foreclosure proceedings on delinquent loans that had been delayed by legislative and industry moratoria."

Bank repossessions are likely to spike in coming months as these loans move through the foreclosure process, he said. (more)