Monday, April 27, 2009

Equity and Commodity charts


The ratio of S&P 500 stocks in an uptrend to a downtrend (i.e. the Up/Down ratio) rose last week from 1.26 to (258/165=) 1.56 last week. The ratio has come a long way from its low on March 6th at 0.18. Another 47 S&P 500 stocks broke resistance last week (including 16 stocks on Friday). Twelve stocks broke support. Most stocks breaking support were in the financial service sector. S&P 500 stocks remain in the Mark Up phase. Next phase after the Mark Up phase is the Peaking phase. Evidence of the Peaking phase based on this indicator has yet to surface.

Bullish Percent Index for S&P 500 stocks eased last week from 66.00% to 62.40%. On Friday, the Index closed below its 15 day moving average. A break below its 15 day moving average from an intermediate overbought level is the requirement for a Bullish Percent Index sell signal. (more)

Martin Armstrong says Major Turn at Hand - batten down the hatches, or...

Written by Martin Armstrong - former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. | Friday, 24 April 2009 07:44

A turn date in Martin Armstrong's Economic Confidence Model passed on April 19th or 20th, depending on how many days you use to calculate a year. The graphic shows that the model is predicting a top at this turn date before heading down into a long-term low in June 2011. As Martin explains in the essay below, the model does not necessarily mean that a top in the Dow Industrials is at hand.

For instance, the 1989 turn date forecasted a top in the Japanese Nikkei. The Economic Confidence Model was created with inputs from around the world and therefore is not limited in scope to just pinpointing stock market tops and bottoms. Personally, I am looking at the US Dollar, the Treasury market or the Shanghai market for signs of a top. All these markets have experienced strong rallies off of recent bottoms and might be ready to turn lower. (more)

Recession, Far From Over, Already Setting Records

THE current recession has become the second-worst in the last half-century and is close to surpassing the severe 1973-75 downturn, according to the Index of Coincident Indicators, based on government data and compiled each month by the Conference Board, a private organization.

Unlike the more widely followed Index of Leading Indicators, which is supposed to help forecast changes in the economy, the coincident index is aimed at simply recording how the economy is doing now.

The accompanying chart shows how far that index has declined from prerecession peaks during each downturn since 1960. The figure for March, released this week, showed a decline of 5.6 percent from the high set in November 2007, the month before the recession began, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.

The decline in the 1970s recession was 6 percent, a figure that is likely to be eclipsed within a few months. (more)

Uranium stocks finally bottomed?

Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 24 April 2009

Well it sure looks like we are getting on a roll. Four good days with improving daily volume activity. The Daily Index has moved into new recovery highs and looks set to continue further, however, these moves never just go straight up but do take some kind of rest or consolidation of gains before continuing. When that will happen is anyone’s guess at this time.

On Friday the Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed 7.44 points higher or 4.75%, finishing off a very good week. There were 40 daily winners and 10 daily losers. There were no stocks not knowing which way they were going. As for the five largest stocks, one was lower, the rest were higher. Cameco gained 4.8%, First Uranium lost 2.1%, Paladin gained 3.6%, Uranium One gained 6.5% and USEC gained 6.2%. The best winner on the day was Alberta Star with a gain of 35.7% while the loser on the day was Globex Mining with a loss of 6.7%.

For the week as a whole the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index was up 564.59 points or 13.89% (the Daily Index closed up 9.39% for the week). There were 36 weekly winners, 11 weekly losers and 3 stocks that went nowhere. As for the 5 largest stocks, Cameco gained 15.7%, First Uranium gained 0.8%, Paladin gained 7.7%, Uranium One gained 10.0% and USEC gained 4.0%. The best weekly gainer was Purepoint Uranium (a new component) with a gain of 57.1% while the loser on the week was Kodiak with a loss of 15.9%.

This week’s analysis is pretty simple. On the long term the Weekly Index is above its positive sloping moving average line as is the Daily Index above its long term positive line. The long term momentum indicator (both the weekly and daily versions) is just below its neutral line in the negative zone but moving upwards above its positive trigger line. The Volume indicator is once more in all time new highs above its positive sloping trigger line. The long term rating remains BULLISH.

On the intermediate term everything is positive. The Daily Index is above its positive moving average line, the momentum indicator is in its positive zone above its positive trigger line and the volume indicator is in new high territory above its positive trigger line. The intermediate term rating can only be BULLISH. (more)

Mcalvany Report, Interview with John Embry

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HESradio April 24, 2009

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