Monday, July 20, 2009

Ten Reasons the Countertrend Rally May Be Over

On a trading basis, I exited the position on April 15 when the S&P was at about 845, for reasons I reviewed in Anatomy of a Losing Trade. On May 19, as outlined in MV Weather Report: Winds Blow S&P to 1000?, I resumed the position with the S&P at around 900 for reasons I fully fleshed out in Why the Counter-Trend Rally Can’t Be Stopped. At that time, I built a portfolio consisting of stocks such as BAC, MS, JPM, AAPL, RIMM, PALM, GOOG, IO, YGE, JASO, SPWRA, WFR, BRCM, QLD, and SSO, as well as various options positions on these and a few other stocks.

Ever since I published my first articles on the countertrend rally, I've been consistent in stating that the window for the countertrend rally would be in the June-July period. Consistent with this long-held view, since mid-June, I've been expressing increasing caution regarding the market for reasons outlined in various buzzes and articles (see all articles and buzzes published since June 16).
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