Friday, May 15, 2009

Big-picture Case for Energy Stocks is Pretty Bullish

By Dan Denning • May 15th, 2009

Maj chongqu' tI nguv bey'vetlh!

That's Klingon for, "Ooooh, that flower arrangement is soooo fabulous."

Actually, we don't really know if that's an accurate translation (not speaking Klingon ourselves). But it's been such a week of passion and debate here at the Old Hat Factory that we felt compelled to bring some levity back to the discussion.

There's certain world-weariness to the tone of the letters we've been getting this week. So in an effort to reinvigorate your animal spirits, we turned to our friends the Klingons, who came to our mind after watching the new Star Trek movie last night. More on the human imperative to act in a moment.

How about a little market analysis for a change? After touching $60 earlier in the week, crude oil closed just above $57 in New York trading. The International Energy Agency said that global oil demand would decline in 2009 by 2.56 million barrels per day. It would be the largest annual decline in world oil demand since 1981 (just before the stock market's 18-year run to glory).

Oil has risen despite OPEC production cuts, despite large inventories, and despite downward adjustments by the IEA to demand. Why would that be? Well maybe oil traders know that the supply side of the picture is the more important story. Demand is going to recover eventually. But the capital spending collapse in the oil industry beginning in 2008 has massively affected the industry's ability to supply future demand. (more)

No comments:

Post a Comment